Walkgate

We've been talking about it for the last three seasons, originally as footnotes to the real records he was breaking. In Barry Bond's assault on the most prestigious numbers in baseball (single season and all time homeruns) he's been setting all sorts of records along the way. The one that has, at times, taken center stage, is the sheer volume of walks he generates. I think at this point it is fair to say that no hitter in the history of the game (rightly or wrongly) has been more feared. No one changes a game more than Barry Bonds. I have problems with the way he is treated, for many reasons. Firstly, I simply believe that this is not how the game should be played. Baseball is perhaps the most egalitarian (at least in the NL) game concieved and to take his at bats and turn them into the farce they've become is disgusting. Every man on the field get's his three a game, guaranteed and opposing managers have taken that away from him. Secondly, there is no one in the majors, not Vlad and his chiropractic gyrations, not Manny and his "Made-For-Slow-Mo" homers (and fielding), not Ichiro's Sixty Foot Sprint, not even the most determined looking man in baseball, Sammy Sosa, or Sheffield and his wrist-breaking waggle as impressive. For me, it's all about number 25, the most imposing force in sports, lurking in the on-deck circle, slowly striding to the plate like a gunfighter at high noon, waiting with the patience of a saint for a strike. It's the way he turns on a ball before I can even identify it with the help of the on-screen pitch speed. It's the simple grace, the effortlessness of the swing, the purest, cleanest, fastest swing in baseball. It is perfection.

Joe Morgan finally brought some sanity to this deabte. You can argue the benefit of giving a man over 200 free trips to first base, and man who in those at bats would have had less than ninety hits, likely less than eighty. You can argue the point of picking one guy on the team not to beat you. You could even forget to take your medication and pull a Jack McKeon and say that even if Ruth hit behind him you wouldn't pitch to Barry. Joe Morgan, a man for which I have tremendous respect, who I've even met, (although I don't remember it. I smudged his autograph as well) put it like this. If you tell a pitcher to walk him intentionally, you're telling him that you do not believe he can get Barry out and eventually, you are going to have to pitch to Barry Bonds. Now you've set up in the minds of everyone on the field that Barry is superhuman, that he cannot be taken down my mere mortal pitchers, and that if he doesn't hit a home run, it's because he was distracted by the things that Barry Bonds thinks about. God only knows what those are. Maybe he's wondering if he could do this with his eyes closed. The point is, this isn't good for the game, it isn't even good for the team. You need to build a team that believes it can win, no matter what. For as much as I hate them, that is how the Angels won two years ago.

And one other thing. I know that passions run high, and that everyone in a field as competitive as professional sports is going to want to win every night, but I think there's a moment when opposing managers, opposing players, even opposing pitchers stop and watch his balls go sailing into McCovey Cove. I think even they can appreciate that greatness for exactly what it is, if only for a second. But not for a second time. We all know what's coming in the next AB. 4 wide, take your base please. In the end, we'll only get to guess what might have happened if pitchers would throw to him with some consistency, or if the Giants had gotten two big bats to protect him, or if there were a limit on intentional walks. But for as hard as they make it, he's still at 701 and I don't think he's planning on stopping.

North Side Wake Up Call

It was a familiar situation for the Cubs. Going into the bottom of the seventh against the Marlins they were down two runs. Dontrelle Willis had held them scoreless for seven, despite not throwing much of a game. His control was off early, and the Cubs had the bases loaded in the second. Derek Lee promptly grounded out. Until the fifth, Willis was having trouble throwing first pitch strikes. But the Cubs let him settle into a groove and he was taking them apart at leisure. With the Marlins bullpen ready to come in and lock down the game, it was a show we'd all seen before. The Cubs hadn't hit a home run all day, and they weren't going to. That's a recepie for failure, for the Cubs. Zambrano had thrown very well, giving up only one earned run, the two runs due to a throwing error and a broken bat flare. The Cubs don't have a Rally Monkey for these sorts of situations. The animal most associated with the Cubs is a goat. This seemed appropriate.

There was only one person on the field who must have felt out of place. Only one man felt unfamiliar today. Sammy Sosa hadn't hit sixth in a lineup in over 10 years. But his first two at bats were familiar. They were exactly what we'd come to expect from the Cubs this year.

And then, it happened. The Cubs had threatened and then scored one in the seventh, but all that managed to do was bring the dreaded Guillermo Mota into the game. After the strikeout of Moises Alou looking to end the inning, the Cubs looked beaten. Two more runs off Mota, or Benitez with the bottom of the lineup? Highly unlikely.

In the eighth, Dusty Baker pinch hit with Nefif Perez. This in itself was enough to suggest to me that he was ceding the game, but Perez rapped a ball through the infield and took second on a throwing error. There was a glimmer of hope for a moment, and then I saw the man in the on-deck circle. It was Sosa.

There have been times when seeing the Dominican Daddy step to the plate with the game on the line would have sent electric shivers through me. But I thought we'd lost that Sammy. For the year he's hitting .236 with men on, .209 with a man on second, and .185 close and late (results in the 7th inning or later with the batting team either ahead by one run, tied or with the potential tying run at least on deck). I thought it was the end.

And then it happened. He happened. Sosa chipped a ball into the outfield, scoring Perez. The Cubs piled on for three more with a bases loaded double from Lee. Still, in the back of my mind, there was a worry. Hawkins had to go through Conine, Encarnacion and Gonzalez. He did it in nine pitches. Nine strikes. Three strikeouts. He was pouring heat on the outside corner and had Conine and Ecnarnacion swinging at pitches six inches off the plate. It was determination, it was grit, and it was blistering fastballs centimeters from the edge of the plate.

It may be premature, but this is exactly what the Cubs needed. There were flubs, blown bunts, Nomar came out in the fifth, and the error in the first. But the Cubs needed to remember how good they really are. They needed to pick up a game on the 'Stros and Marlins. And more than anything else, one thing needed to be proven, that Sammy Sosa was still Sammy Sosa. If the Cubs win the Wild Card, this game will have been the turning point. This is when they started believing they could win it all. In the end, it was the Marlins who looked beaten, flailing at Hawkins in the ninth. The Cubs looked ready for more.

Quantum Leaps?

The Spiderman Catch from Marlon Byrd was a true magic moment in baseball. Holding on for dear life, he struggled halfway up the centerfield wall to rob Andruw Jones of a homerun. But what did it really mean for the Phils to take a doubleheader from the Braves?

In the end, not a thing. It was a marvelous performance, solid defense, great pitching, and clutch hitting. In short, it looked more like the A's, or the Twins, or the Bosox traded uniforms with them. Especially the A's. It looked like the A's left town after dropping two the the Sox and decided to play a double header for the Phillies. Maybe they still loved the old Athletics stomping grounds. Maybe they just wanted to play a team worse than Boston. Whatever happened, the A's did not show up at Oakland (sorry, Network Associates) Coliseum Wednesday night. It must have been the Phillies. And those Phanatics weren't playing the Braves last night. It must have been those A's.

But seriously, this is what the Phils were supposed to be, from day one of spring training. There were people talking about a Phillies World Series. These games in mid August could have been the second most exciting series all year, to the Yanks and Sox in mid August. It could have been the battle of the NL East. It could have been a clash of dynasties; one in the twilight of its reign, the other hungry and raw, ready to turn the baseball world on its head. I don't pretend to know what went wrong. It reminds me of a line that is credited to no one in particular:

"We didn't lose the game; we just ran out of time."

The Phillies are out of time. They were weeks ago. I can't fathom how the Braves are running away with the division. There's only one thing I can say. It's a shame for all of us that they didn't pull it together. Then these games could have been dramatic, even profound, instead of a spectacle and a reminder of what could have been.

Spetember Reading List

With the school year rolling around again, trees turning colors and the Yankees pitching staff rummaging through Giambi's locker for horse tranquilizers, I felt I ought to put up some required reading for any true baseball fans.

Gammons, with his usual brevity, gives us a bevy of predictions of free agent signings for 2005. I actually found this article even more interesting, in which all the teams out of contention were sized up. Reading through these send me on a web search of Scott Boras, and I came across an article from 2001 laying out very clearly who he is. After reading Moneyball I tend to agree with Rick Morrissey. Eventually this search led to some far more humorous content.

All from The Brushback:

Scott Boras Demands $35 Million To Rescue Drowning Child

Man Playing Entire Season Of MLB 2004 Not Getting Laid Anytime Soon

Baseball Fight Marred By Actual Punches

MLB To Institute New Minority Firing Initiative

Peter Gamons Arrested on Marijuana, Gun Charges

It's football, but I still have to mention it because it's jsut that funny

Struggling Eagles Admit J-Lo/Ben Afleck Breakup 'May Have Been A Distraction'

Check the archives for other satirical colunms, but just a fw more baseball related entries before I sign off.

Montreal Expos Lost in Poker Game

Yanks Quietly Place Sleeping Jose Contreras On Raft Back To Cuba

And finally, to continue the theme from my last post,

John Kruk's Column Mistaken For Lost Writings Of Ernest Hemingway

Let's all hope the Rays can get out of Florida and help wipe out the Yankee's division lead. Until next time sports fans.

Bring Back Bobby V

In a recent BBTN (Baseball Tonight) segment, John Kruk and Harold Reynolds were asked to rate the five contending teams in the NL Wild Card race on pitching, defense and offense. Kruk rated the Marlins and Padres above the Cubs for pitching, officially making him the stupidest man ever on the program, edging out both Ken Caminiti (I'm assuming he's been interviewed at least once) and Jose Canseco.

If the Marlins had kept Penny, and that's a big if, I might consider them for second on the list. However, trading him took a formidible chunk out of their rotation. Willis is at 9-9 with an ERA just points below 4, Beckett is 6-8 with a 4.05 ERA, and while Ismael Valdez is 12-7, his ERA is 5.23. Carl Pavano is carrying this rotation at 16-5 and 3.09. That is the ninth best ERA in the NL, but he's #23 for strikeouts, behind Willis. More on Valdez, he does not have a winning record for his carreer and has been wildly inconsistent since his first four years as a Dodger. His K/9 has declined steadily since 2000 from 6.22 all the way down to 3.13. Furthermore, Willis' brilliant K/9 ratio from his debut year is down to 6.45, and he is no longer holding opposing batters to a .245 BA, possibly because hitters have figured out his bizarre mechanics. They now hit him at a .276 clip. If I had to guess as to what was wrong, it was that batters have imporved at hitting him out of the stretch(.266 with the bases empty and .292 with men on), eliminating the advantage of his 'elbows and knees' delivery. Beckett's numbers look eeriely similar to his 2003 stats, with the only difference being a 60 point jump in his SLG. Valdez's stats look about like one would think with his record and ERA, as is the case with Pavano. This does not look like a very healthy rotation to me; it looks like an ace and three number three or four starters, or maybe some young pitchers trying to figure it out.

The Padres are an interesting choice for second best rotation. Adam Eaton is the only one with a losing record at 9-12, 4.71 ERA. Both Brian Lawrence (13-11, 3.82) and David Wells (9-7, 3.49) have midling records. Only Jake Peavy stands out at 11-4 and a 2.21 ERA. The problem with Peavy is that he's untested, not even having reached 100 innings last year in the show. His K/9 has been going down since he came into professional baseball (which is to be roughly expected when he started above 12) but dropped from 8.29 to 7.21, although his WHIP improved marginally. Batters are hitting .282 against Lawrence, way up from last year (.258) and they are slugging .460 off him, a fifty point jump over last year. In contrast, Peavy's numbers are .235 and .352. Wells has actually improved his K/BB by two full points since 2001, but but K/9 has been dropping steadily since '98. I don't think I have to even bother with Sabermetric numbers for Eaton, sometimes ERA and W-L record are pretty honest about a pitcher. The only one that seems to hold any hope for him is that his K/9 has stayed fairly high, above 6.75 for his carreer. Still no one in that rotation scares me but Peavy who is 6-0 since the All Star break and who gets tougher with runners on and tougher still when they're in scoring position (.245 empty, .220 men on, .189 scoring position). After the break, batters agaisnt Wells are hitting .301. Before it was .244. His offense has bolstered his win total, giving him a record since the break of 5-2 while his ERA has climbed over a full point. This seems to be the same story with the Marlins.

I will admit before I start in on the evaulation of the Cubs that I am rather partial to them. That being said, here goes.

Kerry Wood, (7-6, 3.30) Mark Prior, (4-4, 4.87) Matt Clement, (9-12, 3.44) Greg Maddux, (13-8, 3.70) and Carlos Zambrano (12-8, 2.94) are the best rotation in the National League. Period. Zambrano's carreer K/9 (in two and and half seasons) is 7.59, AVGAgainst (or AVGA from now on) is .234, sucked even further down by is almost Mendoza-esque .222 this season so far. By the way, that is the only time in the history of baseball that Mendoza has been used as a compliment. Clement's K/9 has gone up from last season, to 9.48. His ERA has gone down, from 4.11 to 3.44. His AVGA is identical at .227. I have no explanation for his record, except that the Cubs offense has not picked up its pitchers this year. Wood's K/9 remains over nine for the year and his AVGA is at .230. Prior still has an astronomical K/9, 10.62 (10.71 for three seasons), although his AVGA and SLGA has jumped by a lot, due mainly to his injury begning the season and the one that took him out of a game on July 15th. I'll finish with the elder statesman of the group, a man who came home to end his carreer, the most dependable pitcher for the last fifteen years. You have to go back to 1988 to find a year he had a losing record, or a season in which he won less than fifteen games. His K/9 is solidly at 6.27 and AVGA is .245 for the last ninteen years. There was an article on ESPN.com awhile back that talked about just how good Maddux has been, especially compared to his contemporaries.

Coming into this season, according to Lee Sinins' Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia, the average National League pitcher during Maddux's career (1986-present) had an ERA of 4.24. Maddux's career ERA, on the other hand, looked a little different than that:

At a fabulous 2.89.

You might not be surprised to learn that's the greatest difference in ERA by any 300-game winner in modern history (after 1900), compared to his league ERA...

Maddux also has the biggest difference, compared to his league, in baserunners per nine innings (2.39 better than his league) and walks per nine innings (1.51 better). And he's second only to Christy Mathewson in strikeout-walk ratio (1.49 better). So this just in: This guy can really pitch...

What has also defined this man is that he's one of the great control artists of his time -- or any time. He once ripped off nine straight seasons with a walk ratio lower than 2.00 per nine innings. And only three pitchers in history ever had a longer streak. [one of which was Cy Young]...

Only five 300-game winners in history have had a higher career winning percentage than Maddux (.638). And, not coincidentally, only three had more seasons in which they won at least 10 more games than they lost. Maddux has had eight seasons like that.

HIGHEST WINNING PERCENTAGE, 300-WIN CLUB:

1. Lefty Grove .680
2. Christy Mathewson .665
3. Roger Clemens .664
4. John Clarkson .650
5. Grover C Alexander .642
6. Greg Maddux .638

SEASONS WITH AT LEAST 10 MORE WINS THAN LOSSES:

12 Christy Mathewson
11 Cy Young
9 Grover Alexander
8 Greg Maddux
8 Kid Nichols
8 Walter Johnson
8 Lefty Grove

Furthermore, all of these pitchers are horses, pushing or passing 200 innings with regularity. How anyone could not rate this as the best rotation in the NL Wild Card race, the NL, or even the Major Leagues is beyond me. The only rotation even close is Oakland.

At least Krukmeister (for as dumb as his choices were) and I can agree on one thing, the Giants rotation is dead last among contenders. Honestly, let the mascot pitch. He couldn't do much worse that Reuter.

Currently listening to the A's on MLB.com and Swisher is 1-1 in his first three at bats with two walks (what a Moneyballer) and a double. That's nothing but good news, unless you're Ted Lilly.

This blog may eventually prove to be nothing more than a way to settle bar bets, when someone accuses me of predicting the Reds to win the Central in the next decade, or the Yankees to finally admit that they sold the souls of New York to play the way they've played for the last ten years. It may be a useful place to read baseball commentary. It may start a new world order. Who knows?

Now, the ceremonial throwing out of the first pitch, by, none other than Jessie Orosco ... well, at least after I get him out of the wheelchair.

Play ball.