The Friendly Confines

I don't always just complain

2007-08-22T14:49:00.000-05:00

I didn't know about this, but I think that this is a development that in five to ten years is going to provide us all with enough humor to keep us chuckling from April until October:

In recent weeks, Milledge has bonded with new Mets coach Rickey Henderson and hit his way back to prominence.

"How would you say you played tonight?"
"Lastings thinks that Lastings is the greatest. Rickey was Rickey, and Lastings owes Rickey, but Lastings is Lastings. Next question."

A "Winning" Argument

2007-08-20T13:16:00.000-05:00

Some of you readers may know that I am a political animal as well as a baseball fan, and I spend some time in the 'blogosphere' (I really hate that term). Recently there have been some attacks by the MSM (mainstream media) on political bloggers, implying they do not have the accountability that reporters have. The response of the political bloggers was that until the MSM stops screwing up reporting and ignoring actual facts in place of (often wrongheaded) conventional wisdom, they're going to hold their feet to the fire, and that they aren't going away even if the MSM starts getting stories right.

This problem is not limited to news or political reporting. It happens just as much, if not more, in the world of baseball. Profiling the tightening AL Cy Young race was a great idea, but does anyone else see anything wrong with the analysis presented here (emphasis mine)?

1. Beckett, Red Sox (15-5, 3.15): Still tied for the league lead in wins despite a stay on the DL. His team is on its way to the playoffs, giving him the slightest of nods over Bedard, Santana and Haren, at least on my ballot.

2. Bedard, Orioles (12-4, 2.98): The league's best pitcher the past two months hasn't lost in 12 starts (he's 8-0 in that time). He's the only pitcher in the majors with 200-plus strikeouts.

3. Santana, Twins (13-9, 2.88): He's the only contender among the starters who doesn't have an overwhelming won-loss record, although he's allowed three earned runs or fewer in six of his past seven defeats. Still second in Ks, fourth in ERA., first in Q rating.

4. Haren, A's (13-4, 2.54): League-leading ERA and excellent record for losing team probably makes him the slight favorite in the eyes of many, but he's allowed 11 unearned runs to make the ERA a tad deceiving, toils in a pitchers' park and is working without the pressure of Beckett.

I'm not sure I agree with this ranking 100%, but that's not the reason I've bolded selections from this list. If we're going to debate who the best pitcher in the AL is, can't we use a more meaningful metric than wins? I thought even laggards like ESPN had finally started to realize that wins are a hugely flawed method for measuring a pitcher, but it looks like it took Sports Illustrated to prove me wrong. No one who is being paid to write about baseball should be allowed to give such a pathetic analysis of this race. Basic journalistic standards should push the writer to be aware of and include such basic pitcher metrics as K/9, K/BB, and FIP, among others.

In two minutes I was able to uncover the following:

C.C. Sabathia has the highest K/BB of any starter in the AL, 6.22, higher than the only reliever on the SI list, J.J. Putz (5.25, who actually ranks just behind Joe Nathan in this stat) and higher than the number one pick, Josh Becket (4.93).

Bedard, no surprise, has the best K/9 (11.02) of the group, followed by Santana (9.82) and Putz (9.78) None of the others are even in the top 40, and Bedard and Santana are the top 2 starters on the list.

Putz has an amazing BAA of .146, followed by Bedard at .210 and Santana at .214. None of the others make the top 40.

Now, don't those numbers muddy the waters a bit? Not quite so easy to hand the trophy to "Mr. 15 & 5?" Surprisingly, these numbers have me leaning towards Bedard, which is not what I would have expected before my little sabermetric excursion. We need to look at these numbers, lest we repeat the travesty of the 2005 Cy Young. Just a reminder for all you out there:

B. Colon - 3.48 ERA, 157 K
J. Santana - 2.87 ERA, 238 K

Colon won the Cy Young, and Santana inexplicably finished 3rd in balloting. Why? Santana was 'only' 16-7, Colon was 21-8, pitching for a playoff team. More wins that probably came from the better hitting, playoff-bound Angels. So please, mainstream sportswriters, learn a little something about what you're writing about. You might even enjoy it.

I know I will, if it ever happens.

An Unorthodox Division lead

2007-08-13T12:36:00.000-05:00

The D-backs are certainly playing some great baseball as of late, but a deeper look into their numbers reveals a disturbing statistic - this team has scored fewer runs than they've allowed. 502 scored, 523 allowed. Of all the teams in the division, they are most similar (based on these numbers) to the Giants. The Rockies, Dodgers and Padres all have positive differentials, in some cases substantial ones. Unless this is a trend from the beginning of the season, I don't see these baby-backs outlasting the Padres. Well, I guess that's why they play the games.

Notes from the Net - 6/5/2007

2007-06-05T11:25:00.000-05:00

I've added SportLine to my regular sports reading, and I've been quite pleased with it. It fills a hole in my baseball reading that I've been missing more and more as ESPN attempts to lock down their site one article and one writer at a time. Sure, I'll continue to use the WWL for player stats (thanks largely to their brilliant splits) for the current year, and Baseball Reference for almost any other stats, but the player news replicates the sort of Gammons columns I used to be able to read.

One very interesting note was that the A's are pondering using Rich Harden as a reliever. Now, this sort of thing has already been done in the majors once this year with mixed results (Myers in Philly), but this is an idea I've heard floated once before. I remember an article on the Hardball Times from a ways back about swapping Harden with one of the relief men - but as usual I can't find the article since the search function for HBT is almost useless. This is a tangent, but it is a travesty that a site with the quality information and analysis of Hardball Times doesn't tag each and every one of their pages in a comprehensive manner. In these heady days of Web 2.0 (god I hate that phrase) it's a joke that it's not easier to use the archives at a site that is at the bedrock of the baseball net.

Anyway, the Harden move will be complicated by the fact that middle relievers, even great ones, don't make what starters do. Street is still considered the closer for the team, and injury risk closers don't fetch a lot on the market. Considering that Harden won't have a real shot at the closer job, his bottom line alone would lead him to oppose the move. However, for a pitcher that's never reached 190 innings in a season and is a regular on the DL, the chance to improve his longevity in the game, coupled with a possible trade of a resurgent Street in the offseason, could pave the way for him to move to the pen. A friend of mine has Myers in our fantasy league and is convinced that the new stress of pitching back-to-back days as a set-up man and then as closer is to blame for his injury, and I tend to agree with him. Certain pitchers seem to handle certain roles differently, so this could be just what he needs.

Or, it could just be the devious A's trying to plug their holes until the pen gets healthy. Both sound like A's thinking to me.

The Inevitable

2007-05-16T15:00:00.000-05:00

Sorry folks, the legislative session has derailed my schedule as of late. But I had to draw your attention to this story from the Onion.

"I mean, three weeks ago it was still Foghat references and growling out the 'R' on 'the Raiders,' and now this."

Funniest part of the article, the idea of Berman reading. Priceless.

The Worldwide Leader is playing catch-up

2007-05-09T09:51:00.000-05:00

Last year, FSN decided to start producing a highlight show to compete with SportsCenter. At the time I thought it was an interesting idea at best, and I remember at least one article comparing the real-life situation to one of my favorite shows of all time, Sports Night, which was about a witty, up-and-coming highlight program on a fictional cable network. The parallels are obvious.

I didn't watch the show much at first, but for the last two months or so, I've become increasingly disappointed by SC. They have moved further and further from providing highlights, or meaningful analysis and have devoted countless segments to their own original reporting. While this was acceptable in the sports doldrum that lasts from the day after the Super Bowl until Opening Day, it is inexcusable now. Over the last few weeks, I have seen more content on the NFL draft, and recently, college football programs that I have on baseball.

By contrast, FSN Final Score provides all highlights and recaps - no need for clever or touching segments. This is sports, I want to see the scores, and if the analysts on TV are progressively getting dumber (see Baseball Tonight) then I don't care what they even think about the games.

However, the most interesting development in this competition has only come in the last few weeks. Final Score had a unique look in contrast to SC; the video only takes up 80 percent of the screen. A ticker is included at the bottom of the screen, a la SC, but along the right margin Final Score displays their upcoming segments, and puts a title on top of the screen. The result is losing a few inches on each side of the screen, but having greater awareness about what is coming next. This has been their style from the first days of the show, and only changes to full screen when there is a death in the sporting world.

SportsCenter has adopted (some might say ripped off) this style of presentation from Final Score. They now list upcoming stories on the right margin of the screen in identical fashion to the FSN upstart. Perhaps the best thing for a stagnant behemoth like SC is to get pushed around and be forced to adapt, but I'd really rather that they used more creative tactics than plagiarism.

Bravo WWL, bravo.

Rivera Blows Another

2007-05-08T09:29:00.000-05:00

Sure, this isn't actually a blown save, but it's a loss in yet another save situation for Rivera. 1-3, 3 saves in 5 opportunities, and an ERA that is still over 8. Watching a proven veteran implode like this might have put the Yankees off signing a 44 year old, but clearly that doesn't scare them. It's amazing what limitless ego and money co do for an organization.

Close the book?

2007-04-23T09:25:00.000-05:00

Anyone who was watching Friday's Yankees / Red Sox game was thinking the same thing: Is Mariano Rivera done?

I know this season is a small sample size, but his BAA is over .280 and his ERA is north of 8. The Red Sox manhandled him when he came in to keep the win intact, and when Marco Scutaro takes you deep in the ninth, you should be worried.

His line thus far for the season: 1-2, 8.44 ERA, 0 SV, 2 BS

Just as a point of comparison, his career splits show him with a 2.38 ERA in March and April, 10 and 9, 53 saves and only 7 HR.

This season is a warning sign. Mariano can't be un-hittable forever, and if he turns out no better than anyone else in the Yankees pen, they are going to have a miserable season unless the rotation takes a huge step forward. This year could be the collapse of the dynasty.

And someone in the stands yelled POLO!!

2007-04-16T11:06:00.000-05:00

I watched the first 7 innings or so of the A's - Yankees game yesterday and was slightly bummed that the bullpen came in and gave up the lead. Given that the A's don't exactly have the most potent offense, I assumed the game was over. I would have finished watching the game if I hadn't needed to leave, so I missed what happened. The game was over, Rivera was in, bottom of the ninth, two out, and it was all up to Marco Scutaro. He crushed an 0-2 (0-2 people) cut fastball, sending it flying into the left field foul pole.

"This has to be in the top two," Scutaro said. "Especially being against Mariano, it was very special.

Here's a little visual representation of how the game looked, courtesy of Fangraphs. One more win puts the A's at .500, and I still like them to be in competition for the division down to the last day of the season.

Opening Day Blunders

2007-04-04T09:10:00.000-05:00

Even if we ignore the poor starts put up by some of the aces on opening day, and the mayor of Cincinnati getting ejected (in jest) before the Reds opener even started, it was a rusty few days for major league clubs. Two former MVPs had more than their share of trouble just running the bases.

2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau -

In the fourth inning, when Morneau delivered his second hit of the game, he advanced to second on a Rondell White walk. But when Jeff Cirillo delivered a hard-hit single to right, Morneau got waved all the way home and got called out at the plate. Morneau then was thrown out at second in the fifth inning when he tried to stretch a single into a double, and then got beat on ground ball to first in the seventh. Stopping just one base short of the running cycle, Morneau joked that he knows one thing hasn't changed.

"At least we know I didn't get any faster over the offseason," Morneau said with a laugh.

1990, 1992, 1993, 2001-2004 NL MVP Barry Bonds -

Bonds bounced a single into left field against the infield shift, then stole second and was thrown out at home when he tried to score on San Diego shortstop Khalil Greene's wild throw past first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez recovered the ball quickly and Bonds was such an easy out at the plate that he didn't even bother sliding.

Giants third base coach Tim Flannery said Bonds made the decision to go home because he could see the ball in front of him and gauge his chances himself.

"Joey Amalfitano taught me a great lesson,'' Flannery said. "When the ball is in front of a player like that, just pat him on the back and say, 'You're making $10 million a year and I'm making $60,000. You make the decision.'"

I didn't get to see the Barry gaffe, but the Justin Morneau ones were particularly amusing, especially when he tried to bowl over the catcher when thrown out at home. Hopefully these two will prove that they know how to run the bases before season's end.

P.S. - While I'm no longer the Barry defender and less and less the Barry apologist, Jim Caple made an interesting comment in his article on the poor Giants opener.
The Giants opened their 50th season in San Francisco on Tuesday and they introduced their All-Stars from that half-century during a long pregame ceremony. As Orlando Cepeda, Gaylord Perry, Juan Marichal, Willie McCovey, Willie Mays -- all Hall of Famers -- and others took the field, you couldn't help but wonder why this team hasn't won a World Series since moving here in 1958.

Perry's introduction also brought up another thought: Why are all the talk show blowhards and self-righteous columnists so quick to condemn Barry Bonds for "ruining'' the game when an admitted cheater is in the Hall of Fame and no one questions it? If it was all right for Perry to grease his way to 300 wins and Cooperstown, why do we hold Barry to a different standard? Why is one considered mere gamesmanship and the other a threat to civilized society? That's something for you to consider as the Great Home Run Chase resumes.

At this point, even I admit that there is a significant difference between steroid use and doctoring a ball, but both are brazen, straightforward forms of cheating. Whether or not you agree with him, it's a point worth considering.

Withdrawal

2007-02-07T12:41:00.000-06:00

Well folks, I've been bad. There's no other way to put it. Not the cool Michael Jackson (circa 1987) "Bad." I mean the good-golly-miss-Molly I've been too busy to get down a post in far too long. I can offer a brief recap of my life over the last few months, so as to provide a half-assed explanation as to my absence.

First, I spent two months interning in Congress before the elections. This was tremendously interesting and provided me a chance to see the Nats play at RFK. The game itself was one of the last home games of the year, and the Phillies were in town and still in the playoff hunt. The game became tremendously once I realized that the Nationals pitchers had no interest whatsoever in helping Ryan Howard pad his stats, and walked him intentionally several times in extra innings. It was the first time in recent memory that I left a game before it concluded, but the Metro was shutting down, and RFK Stadium is not in the safest part of Washington DC.

Following this, I returned for some aggressive campaigning before Election Day, and we did very, very well. Nationally, I was thrilled, although locally there were a few (huge) disappointments. To all of the rest of you in the United States, Michele Bachmann is in no way representative of Minnesota. Usually I'd be the first to rip this frigid state (I'm a California native), but it is a very nice place and that woman is seven different kinds of crazy.

After the elections wound down, I went job searching, which lasted until the Friday before Christmas. Since then, I've been at my new job and very busy.

So, in a nutshell, DC - Elections - Job stuff - sorry.

Now, on to other things. While logically, the worst day for baseball fans should fall in the week after the World Series, for me, it's right about now. The NFL fanfare is finally finished, and we're still too damn far away from full spring training for my tastes. We won't see squad games for another month at the earliest. This is a doldrums of sporting interest, with nothing but the NHL and NBA to hold my interest. All the winter meeting deals are done, and there really won't be anything new in baseball for a month, or maybe two.

I'll admit, I'm a baseball junkie. I need a good six month fix to survive the rest of the year. I personally can't wait for the days when ESPN will start televising the Caribbean Series, and I think that the WBC should be held every two. But the point is, I need baseball, and I cannot wait for the season to get here.

Pitchers and catchers in 6 days, though. A little ray of hope for us all.

Forty Two

2006-11-14T06:58:00.000-06:00

Economics can't account for the value of certian things. There really is a pricelessness that can be applied to certian objects, and how many millions do we hit before the word 'absurd' begins to ring in everyone's ears? But is a new pitch really priceless?

Barry Zito is going to be paid a lot of money by someone; so is Jason Schmidt. Other no name starters are going to have their value ratcheted up and feel thankful to the worst man in baseball (Boras). But the bid the Red Sox put in to secure negotiating rights with Daisuke Matsuzaka is nothing short of insane. There isn't a starter out there worth twenty million a year, and very few starters are healthy enough or talented enough to justify a five plus year investment, but that's just the spot Red Sox have pyt themselves in, if they are truly intent on signing the pitcher. I fall more on the side that this was an attempt to outflank the Yankees and keep them from signing the gyroballer.

The one thing that I can say with certianty is this; I can't imagine a more interesting way to really kick off the dealing of the winter months. Stay tuned, sports fans.

Contest Extended!

2006-08-24T20:28:00.000-05:00

Okay, maybe the questions were a little too hard. Tell you what, just answer one of them. Email me your answers and address, and on Labor Day I'll get around to drawing winners.

Power Potential: An introduction

2006-08-18T13:02:00.000-05:00

While doing research for the Abreu trade article, I pored over salary numbers and payrolls, and a few things jumped out at me. I bounced over to the contracts on the Giants page, and was stunned by the ammount of money that Bonds, Alou, Finley and Durham were making. Their contracts for this year according to ESPN, 20, 7.45, 7 and 7 million respectively, for a total of 41.45 million. With Schmidt as a free agent at the end of this season, that gives the Giants' a payroll next year of around 40 million. Sabean might be dumb enough to pick up Finley's option for 7, and Durham might exercise his player option, but with all these contracts coming off the books, the Giants are going to have a tremendous ammount of flexibility.

The idea here isn't to predict which players teams will resign, but to look at their finance / talent position going into next season.

I was also looking at the Twins payroll and roster. Radke's 9 million will be gone, along with Hunter's 10.75. Stewart is gone for 6.5; several other players have options that may or may not be picked up. This will leave the Twins with only about 40 million committed, although, like the Giants some of this will disappear as contracts ramp up. The point remains that the Twins will also have a lot or room to redefine their team this winter.

The other advantage these teams both have is that they have some good young players coming along, especially in the rotation.

The Twins and Giants will provide the two archetypes for this series, big market teams that have a solid core and many millions to spend, and smaller market teams with a lot of cheap, young talent who clear some big contracts.

I'll profile the outlook for such teams in this series, so keep you eyes peeled for who's got power potential.

World Series DVD giveaway

2006-08-10T08:24:00.001-05:00

The nice folks over at A & E are promoting a new line of DVDs, which feature highlights from about the last 200 years (maybe I'm exagerating a little) worth of World Series'. I was sent the one for the 1954 NY Giants vs the Cleveland Indians, which I've linked here. This features arguably the most famous defensive play of all time, "The Catch" by Willie Mays.

Their main page can be found here, and they really do have a tremendous number of these things, going all the way back to 1943.

The reason I mention all this is that I've been given 3 DVDs to give away to my faithful readers. So, we're going to have a trivia contest. There are three questions, and I'll draw randomly among those who get them all right.

What is the Royals record in World Series games?

In Game 7 of the 2001 World Series, what was the Win Expectancy of the Diamondbacks starting off the 9th inning?

Pre-divisional play (which began in 1995), what is the 4 game sweep in the World Series that has lasted the longest, and why?

Either put these answers in the comments for this post, or send an email to me through blogger. The contest will run until the 20th of August, unless there are too few correct answers. So get cracking, and win yourself some baseball goodness.

The Revolution will be SABRized (except it's not really a revolution)

2006-08-09T11:24:00.000-05:00

I had a long conversation last night about a couple of issues raised by my last post, and I want to put a couple of things down. Conversations are great opportunities for exchanging ideas, but rarely feature efficient, surgical uses of language.

My last post was spurred by my surprise at how much advanced baseball analysis had begun to infiltrate mianstream media, especially in the form of Expected W-L on the MLB.com site. This is a website that has been in existence for over a decade, is officially maintained by, you know, baseball and decided at the begining of the season to include this stat in their official categories (although you do have to turn the option on).

Now, I was happy about this, and I think all baseball fans should be. This metric gives us all a better understanding of the game, and I think it is therefore a good thing. But, unfortunately, I used the acronym SABR in my post, which among some people in the baseball community has become a bad word ... hell, almost blashpemy.

I'm going to take this slow, so as to be completely clear. SABR, as in SABRmetric (sabermetric), has the following meaning:

The Society of American Baseball Researchers. Keep this in mind as you read along.

Last night, our discussion centered around the difference of opinion on this community. A friend told me that he views this community as incredibly arrogant, and that he feels that their work "takes the fun out of baseball." I didn't agree with that.

I disagreed with a number of things about his arguments.

Firstly, most of the baseball community is quite arrogant. Ozzie Guillen, George Steinbrenner, Mike Scioscia back when we was really winning, Barry Bonds, Ricky Henderson, Roger Clemens, David Wells, A-Rod, Jeter, Curt Schilling, Dusty Baker, Tony LaRussa just to name a very few. Chances are you don't have to think very hard to come up with instances where these men insisted they were right to the point of arrogance, or to come up with another dozen names. Competitive sports are going to draw competitive people, and to single out a single group for arrogance is like singling out a Royals player for incompetence; they're all at fault.

Furthermore, SABR is not what most people think it is, which is why it kind of pisses me off to hear blanket statements about a group that's actually trying to grow baseball in a time where public distrust of the sport is dangerously high, African-Americans are leaving in droves, and postseason viewership continues to drop. SABR actually does a number of wonderful things for the game.

Now, I know I'm not supposed to ever use wikipedia as a source, but there's not a traditional encyclopedia or source I can go to, so I've got no other choice. From the SABR page on wikipedia:

The Society for American Baseball Research was established in Cooperstown, New York, in August of 1971. The Society's mission is to foster the research and dissemination of the history and record of baseball while generating interest in the game.
Members include Bill James and Rob Neyer. SABR, which is pronounced "saber" and whose acronym led to the creation of the word sabermetrics (mathematical tools to analyze baseball), is about much more than statistics.
In fact, only a minority of members pursue "number crunching" research. Rather, SABR offers a community of fans organized in two ways. Research Committees study a particular issue. Regional Chapters are for members in geographic proximity. They are frequently named after baseball personalities relevant to the region.

So sabermetrics is far different than what most people would believe. However, as a statistical discipline it is imperative to get this point across. It is the application of the scientific method to baseball. That way, we don't believe the baseball equivalent of mice being bred from dirty piles of rags in corners.

Secondly, anyone who ever mentions the word "sabermetrics" is immediately asked about "Moneyball." This is the law of firsts, the idea that the first product, idea, or book that identifies a unique product or idea is tied into it with unbreakable bonds. This is why in some places you can go to a restaurant, order a "Coke" and then when you're asked what you want, you order a Sprite, or Root Beer, or something else that is clearly not a Coke, or even a Cola. This is because Coke as the first widespread soda (pop, whatever) with widespread recognition. Moneyball has done this to sabermetrics, to the point that it has become impossible for some to seperate the two in their minds. Let me make this clear, because in some quarters this is still misunderstood. Sabermetrics does not automatically suppose that OBP is the most important stat, that speed is useless, nor does it suggest that all coaches and scouts are deranged. It is, like I said, just the collection and analysis of statistics, leaning heavily on resources such as Retrosheet and Baseball Reference.

This leads into my third point. For me, a greater understanding of the game through stastics doesn't diminish the 'magic' around the game at all. The steroid scandal, yes, the White Sox winning a World Series, yes, but understanding that OBP correlates better with scoring runs than SLG, no. Comparing Milwaukee attendance in their new park to the Twins over that time, controling for variables and concluding that the Twins can expect a huge bump in attendance, given how much higher their winning percentage is, no. Investigating how a steal affects late and close games by using the Win Expectancy calculator, no. All of those things enhance my love of the game, and pull me deeper in.

Yes, sometimes these studies contradict common baseball knowledge, but why should baseball be immune to criticism if it can be proved that it is wrong? Honestly, that too close to the way the adminstration treats the press for me. "Even if we're wrong, you can't criticize, because you're tarnishing a great institution." If we truly believe in our great institutions, then we must hold them to high standards of honesty and conduct, and by giving dumb managers and commentators a pass, we let bad information circulate about the game we love (like the importance of having an pitcher that "knows how to win").

In the end, I took all of this a bit personally, because while I am not an official member of SABR, I've felt a certian affinity for people who are trying to find new and interesting ways to look at baseball, and who may get carried away in their love of the game but always have their hearts in the right places. Yes, at times the style of presentation can be a bit abrasive, and sometimes it appears that they want to tear down tradition, but I think their contribution far outweighs any cost they might bring. Besides, think of all the raidcal changes to baseball in the last fifty years: interleague play, the wild-card, weight rooms, online radio and TV broadcasts, the DH, 73 homeruns, the 4 then 6 divisions, steroid worries, expansion teams, mound distance and probably a lot of others I'm too young to remember.

Sabermetrics isn't just something else the game has to weather, it's a community that is going to do whatever they can to make the game thrive, and try to educate us a bit along the way. This is all just my opinion, which is too bad because I'd love some statistics to back this up (just the SABR in me, I guess).

The Revolution will be SABRized

2006-08-08T08:38:00.000-05:00

We've seen a lot of changes in baseball media this year. ESPN is down two in their broadcast crew, and has brought in a circus side show of replacements. They've also revamped their graphics, lost rights to postseason series and decided not to repair robotic Joe Morgan. But today, I'm not going to talk about ESPN.

When Moneyball was published in 2003, it opened the eyes of a lot of baseball fans. I'd had some idea of what was going on, but the only reason was that I was in Oakland in the years previous. I'd seen what Beane was doing, and it was clear he was doing it for cheap. But at the time, I'm not sure I even knew what SABR stood for. I didn't even own a copy of Baseball Prospectus until this winter.

The internet has been a wonderful source for a poor college student (now poor government / political employee) to get information I would otherwise never come across. I've discovered statistics based on math that's too complicated for me that give a whole new meaning to understanding baseball.

The only problem has been how slow major news outlets and media sources have been to adopt these measures. We're finally seeing AVG / OBP / SLG become more common than AVG - HR - RBI, but for the most part, things like VORP, or DER, or MLV have fallen on deaf ears. Mainstream media is proving that they have to be dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st century when it comes to baseball.

Last year, when I wanted to know the Pythagorean Win-Loss numbers for a team, I had to compute it myself with data from ESPN's league page. I've been meaning to mention this for quite awhile, but you can now find it here, at the official Major League Baseball website.

Sure, it's a simple formula, and Runs Scored and Runs Allowed have been numbers that mainstream analysts have used for years, but the use of this statistic is a glimmer of hope that we won't have to cling to the old ways in baseball. Someday, we might all be able to talk about how truly, truly awful Derek Jeter's fielding is, and finally have a way to prove it beyond the shadow of a doubt. It won't be the old baseball way of anecdote and error totals, but range factor, and all the other various deffensive ratings dreamed up by people with advanced statistics degrees and a love of baseball.

The Revolution is coming, and it will be SABRized.

Philly Blues

2006-08-03T11:50:00.000-05:00

The blues (as the name suggests) are always sad songs. But it would be incorrect to assume that everyone signing the blues is depressed. The beauty of blues is that you can express yourself, and try to move past the pain of your life.

My second-grade psychoanalysis isn't intended to expose shortcomings in my formal education, but to serve as a template for this post. While I agree with a lot of what was said on the Abreu / Lidle for junk trade at the Confines, I've thought about it, read a number of articles on both sides, and put together an opinion on the matter.

Here's a few facts to set the table

Bobby Abreu's 2006 salary: 13.6 million

Bobby Abreu's 2007 salary: 15.5 million

Bobby Abreu's 2008 option: 16 million

Phillies 2006 payroll without Abreu: 87 million

From an ESPN article published today

Abreu, who had a full no-trade clause, told the Phillies he would be interested in waiving it only for the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox and Angels

When Gillick talks about the importance of "payroll flexibility," he must quietly lament the burdensome contracts negotiated by his predecessor, Ed Wade ... Burrell has a full no-trade clause and is owed $27 million in 2007 and 2008 combined

So the situation is this, pre-trade. The Phillies are a mid-market team with a ballooning payroll. They want trade Abreu and cash in with prospects. We all know that. But it's a little more interesting than that. There's only four teams he's gonna go to. We know what happened with the Yankees. So now we have three questions left for each team.

Do they really want Abreu (or were they just trying to drive the price up)?

Can they afford him?

What would they offer?

First, I'll take the Angels. Their scrappy, small ball character has devolved a bit since their heyday in 2002. They seem to be a team without any philosophy on how to win. That being said, their outfield is old and expensive, so they definitely want a dependable power hitter.

Unlike so many other years, the Mets weren't making desperate deals at the deadline to bolster their chances for the NL Wild Card. Beltran has been a monster with a 1.027 OPS. Chavez and Floyd haven't been great, but the Mets are trying to give Lastings Milledge opportunities to play, so an extra outfielder might meana decrease in playing time. Furthermore, the Mets have held onto their young talent as of late, perhaps learning a lesson from the disastrous Kazmir trade. The Mets are playing well, and decided not to mess with their team at the deadline. Given Floyd's glove and the cost in both prospects and money, the Mets had mild interest at best.

The Red Sox were probably more interested in Abreu to keep him from going to the Yankees than to actually sign him. Crisp has been a huge dissapointment, but a lot of his diminished performance can be attributed to injury. Trot Nixon and Willy Mo Pena have platooned quite well, however, and I'm sure that the Red Sox have no interest in pushing any higher into salary cap territory. Would they like to deny the Yankees a fresh outfielder? Of course, but he's too damn expensive for that. What does Nixon's 7.5 million pay for? For a second DH, behind David Ortiz? True, they could have sent back Crisp, but his stock is about as low as it can get, especially with a contract that rachets up a million or so a year to an 8 million 2010 option. He might be a steal, but he looks like a risk after this half season. Manny and Papi are tearing the cover off the ball, but in a tight division race, Abreu looks a lot better than he otherwise would.

So from this point on, we're going to discount the Mets. I don't think there's any world where what they get from Abreu is what they'd have to give up to get him, and what they'd have to pay.

So now we have to see if the Angels and Red Sox could reasonably afford the added 15 or so million a year. This would put the Red Sox dangerously close to the limit for 2006, while the Angels would be a good 15 million under. Forbes published a list in 2005 of the financial standings of all 30 teams. It's worth noting the five biggest deficits in terms of operating income:

New York Yankees -37.1

LA Angels of Anaheim -30.0

Arizona Diamondbacks -18.7

Boston Red Sox -11.3

New York Mets -11.2

Quick accounting tutorial. Operating Income = Gross Profit - Operating Expenses. This deos not include certian taxes or debt, so it's actually a rosier picture than a full profile. It's important to understand that Theo Epstien is a Beane acolyte, and the whole point of Beane's theories is to win while making money. So is Theo going to put another 15 million on the books already knowing where the numbers are? My guess would be no, since he's smart enough to run the stats and see that Abreu is unlikely to net additional millions in revenue.

So this leaves the Angels who already have a 30 million operating deficit. Vladimir Guerrero is signed through 2009, Anderson through 2008, and Colon is on until 2007. Erstad is the fourth largest contract, and it expires at the end of the season, but it's only 8 million coming off the books. The Angels could make this move, but it could well push them to a 40 to 45 million a year operating loss, so it's a tentative interest at best. The Angels are the only team we're dealing with anymore, after concluding that the deal was far too rich for the Red Sox's blood.

By now we've all heard the deal the Angels offered for Tejada, Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar. Santana is believed to be an up-and-coming ace, and Aybar has hit well in the minors for the last few years. So would the Angels have offered this for Abreu?

2006
Tejada - .328 / .380 / .515
Abreu - .282 / .428 / .439

Career
Tejada - .284 / .341 / .480
Abreu - .301 / .412 / .507

Abreu is about 100 point better in OPS, but is two years older than Tejada, and plays in the outfield. Power hitting SS take precedence over OF for even money. Tejada has been first or second in SLG among SS every year but one since 2000 (including this year) so it doesn't get any better than this. I'd say that they come out roughly even, especially given Tejada's reputation as a clubhouse leader. So this is the other deal that the Phillies might have seen: Abreu for Aybar / E. Santana

So after all this muddling about, here's what we come out with. The only other deal on the table would have been from the Angels, and it would have pushed the Angels much further into the red. I'd estimates the chances of an Abreu-to-the-Angels at 25 percent. Every million the Phillies pay, the percentage goes up by 5.

It's been painfully obvious that the Phillies needed to rebuild from the ground up, and chose a new direction for the organization before they're trampled under the Marlins rookies and Mets superstars. Clearing Abreu gives them the chance to move in that direction. Could other trading partners have offered better parts? Yes, but they were less likely to actually pull the trigger on Abreu without a donation from the Phillies -- exactly what they were trying to avoid. This is one of the few cases when I feel that the phrase 'addition by subtraction' should be used.

So the Phillies could have done better, if they'd got lucky. As it was, they had to send off a man who was using them, running around town, and always takin' their last dollar. The thrill was gone, but now those Phillies can move on.

Sounds like blues to me, but it's no sad voice singing.

Something is Rotten in the State of Pennsylvania..

2006-07-31T23:07:00.000-05:00

With my beloved Twins in the thick of the wild card race, I have to admit to paying more attention the Yankee’s acquisitions than usual. So when I read about Sunday’s trade (in the self congratulatory New York Times, no less) I about choked on my breakfast.

Why? Every possible reason why the Phillies might have made this trade crossed my mind. Although Phil’s GM Pat Gillick suffering from early onset Alzheimer’s seems like as likely an explanation as any, I decided ignore Gillick’s health and think the deal through logically.

Say you’re a major league GM at the trading deadline. Your team of chronic underachievers is out of contention (even considering that every team within striking distance of .500 seems to be in playoff contention). You correctly decide that it’s time to build for the future, and move to cash in some chips at the trading deadline.

Fortunately all is not lost, because you’ve got some chips to bargain with. You have a slugging outfielder, who’s relatively young and has a great on base percentage. You even have a couple of serviceable arms which are sure to go for far more than their worth, considering the lack of starting pitching on the trading block.

With so many junior circuit teams searching for another bat, things are looking good. Time to sit back and wait for the best offer to roll in, based on a combination of the trading partner’s willingness to pay some of the salary of the player in question, and offer some prospects with potential for the future.

That would make entirely too much sense. Gillick was probably as giddy as a schoolgirl after considering how many shiny new bats he could acquire from the Yankee clubhouse before deciding that it was just a bit too of steep. So he went for the next best thing: Yankee Prospects.

In trading away the most valuable player dealt at the deadline for a 27 year old LOOGY, a pair of raw Class A pitchers and an unremarkable 18 year old catcher, I finally got a very clear illustration of why the Phillies suck.

I’m aware that the Phil’s dumped a lot of salary here. I’m also aware that Abreu was massively overpaid. However, there is always a right way to dump salary and a wrong way. Many other teams would have been willing to take a large portion of Abreu’s salary while offering prospects. Naturally expecting blue chip prospects for a player with Abreu’s salary is a bit unrealistic. But the Phillies could have gotten somebody. Considering all of the teams in the thick of the playoff hunt, Abreu could have garnered a lot more, particularly when packaged with a serviceable starter like Lidle.

Brian Cashman must really know how to pick em’.

Ozzie Guillen, Man of Eloquence

2006-07-28T08:55:00.000-05:00

Following a 3 game sweep that pulled the Twins even in the AL Central:

"For the first time in my life, I'm speechless."

Allow me to explain the only two scenarios that could result from such a monumental event.

World Peace ensues. Dancing in the streets, Middle East accords, lion laying down with the lamb, etc, etc. You should try to run up your credit card bills before this happens, as all debt will be forgiven at the price of a hug. Unfortunately, in this new utopian climate, South Park, the Daily Show and other forms of satire will cease to exist.

Chaos engulfs the earth. Without the demented example of Guillen to inspire us all to run in the opposite direction, rioting, mass lawlessness and conflict erupt. Go buy bottled water. Now. And gasoline. If you have access to a castle and moat, now would be the time to use it.

The Twins have become the most exciting team in baseball, and I couldn't be happier. Well, maybe if the A's weren't playing like two pounds of boiled yams. Well, go Twins anyway.

ESPN has a time machine

2006-07-26T09:11:00.000-05:00

And no, I didn't just get ESPN Classic. This is a screen cap from the main MLB page over at the Worldwide Leader.

The only explanation is that ESPN has traveled forwards to Monday, July 25, 2011 and that all these stories are a harbinger of what is to come. It appears that the Yankees will sign a one-year contract extension with A Rod that will explode in controversy mid way through the season.

Most frightening of all is that Joe Morgan will still be conducting chat sessions.

On another tangent, it looks like the other shoe has dropped on the HR story and that the explanation is a sexual harassment charge. I'll leave all the commentary to Deadspin, but it does seem from everything I've read about ESPN anchors, this problem wasn't limited to HR. It could be worse than I would guess, but it seems like HR has been dragging his feet as the network runs itself into the ground. He was one of the few people left who seemed to have a brain left in his head, and maybe this was the excuse they needed to get rid of a malcontent (who was dead right about ESPN).

But now that ESPN has a time machine, it's only a matter of time before they go back and save HR from himself and rescue Peter Gammons from his stroke. They could save the A's from signing Loiaza, but their East Coast Bias is well documented.

Harold hears a WHAT?

2006-07-25T14:29:00.000-05:00

I don't know, maybe he refused to do ads for the phone.

Maybe he called Kruk fat.

Maybe he called the network insane for letting postseason baseball slip through their fingers, and be broadcast by the loathsome Buck and McCarver duo.

But he must have done something.

I'm shocked that ESPN would dump someone so quickly, and without any warning signs. I'm sure over the next few weeks we'll find out the truth. I don't have any sources, so I'm waiting like the rest of you.

It is possible that something good could come out of this. HR could go over to FOX or TBS, or even to FSN if he were desperate. Maybe he'll get involved with a club or a college. I've always talked about how much I like Harold's broadcasting style, and the way he never gets in over his head is an admirable trait that I wish Joe Morgan possessed. BBTN won't be the same without him, and if anyone thinks that keeping Kruk over HR was a good move, they should be lobotomized (unless they already are).

The bad news keeps on coming folks. At this rate, next week I'll be reporting on Pete Rose's new tenure as Major League Manager, and the White Sox trading a bag of balls and a box of frozen steaks for Alfonso Sorriano. Said Bowden, "What, I was hungry?"

Who Broke the F#%*ing Mirror?

2006-07-13T13:03:00.000-05:00

As if rampant steriod speculation weren't bad enough. As if Barry wasn't in danger of being in jail by the end of the season. As if Ozzie Guillen hadn't resigned his contract with the devil (substituting Jim Thome's soul for his own). As if the HGH story was about to blow wide open ...

As if all of these things haven't nearly killed the game of baseball, we get the worst possible news. Ever. Major League Baseball just signed two

seven-year TV deals — starting next year — with Fox and TBS. Fox stays the lead dog, retaining the World Series and one league championship series — down from showing both LCS in its current six-year deal. TBS gets a TV monopoly of all first-round playoff games, which have been aired in current deals by Fox and various cable TV channels, including ESPN.

Anyone who has ever watched a game on TBS or FOX knows that the next 7 years are going to be nigh intolerable. McCarver and Buck 26 times a season, and non-stop in the playoffs? The brain-dead lethargic announcing of the TBS broadcasting crew? If you were going to kill us, MLB, why didn't you just demand that Stephen A Smith and Stuart Scott announce every game?

Is ESPN insane? Really, are these people completely out of their minds? Or are we going to start seeing mini-camp footage in March and more coverage of the inane marathon that is the NBA postseason (IT'S A WINTER SPORT, WHY DOES IT LAST UNTIL JUNE!)

ESPN has the personnel, the channels and the advertising budget (see losses on ESPN DA PHONE!!)to do baseball right. One of the delights of the last few years has been when ESPN covered the first round of the playoffs and I got to listen to Harold Reynolds in the booth. There are many talented anchors on the network, and why ESPN goes out of it's way to promote those that act like jackasses is beyond me. This was a chance for ESPN to take back baseball, show weekly games on ABC with competent, entertaining broadcast crew and bring the national past time back to prominence.

It's days like this I thank god that we can get any game over the internet, and not a single one has Joe Buck or Tim McCarver announcing. Never has the sound of Joe "Billy Bean wrote Moneyball" Morgan's voice sounded so sweet.

Ozzie Guillen, Protector of the Race

2006-06-29T11:37:00.000-05:00

Just when you thought that Ozzie might, might realize the trouble he will be in if he keeps this sort of insane crusade up, when you think someone might have convinced him to shut the hell up long enough to be distracted by the White Sox record, he goes and proves to you that he really hasn't a single shred of sense in his head.

Allow me to quote this article --

Dodgers first base coach Mariano Duncan considered Ozzie Guillen a trailblazer and role model, a Latino who rose through the coaching ranks to become a manager after his playing career ended.

But after Guillen's string of controversial comments this year, Duncan has revised his opinion. And he has a message for the flamboyant Chicago White Sox manager.

"Think before you talk, or you can really hurt yourself and hurt a lot of other people," Duncan said.

"He embarrassed every Latino player, coach and front-office person."

"Ozzie is a hero in his country [Venezuela] and a hero in my country," Duncan said. "We are here in America, where you can speak freely. But you don't say everything that comes to your mind. He has to learn to slow down a little bit. You have to learn how to close your mouth.

"Baseball needs people like Ozzie Guillen. He motivates people. He's a smart guy. But he's got to be smarter than that."

I include all this text to give you the full flavor of Duncan's comments. Sharp, but not inflamatory; harsh, but not wrong, and meant in genuine kindness. Now you all know I'm an old school Giants fan, and that I have trouble feeling for the Dodgers (although the addition of Nomar may be turning me into a softie). But this is great advice for anyone in any walk of life. We all, at times, react too quickly and make fools of ourselves. Hopefully we're big enough to appologize, and to try to learn from our mistakes.

But Ozzie Guillen?

"Mariano Duncan never will be a big-league manager and not because I ruined it for him, [but] because if Mariano Duncan thinks being a manager is making out the lineup and changing pitchers, he is real wrong," Guillen said.

"I opened a lot of doors for Latino managers, a lot, because of the way I am, things that happened in my career as a player, coach and manager.

"I think Mariano Duncan should be the last person that should have an opinion about it, because maybe that will be an excuse for him if he doesn't make it [as] a big-league manager."

Did he open doors; yes, a few that had already been loosened, or opened and forgotten by Felipe Alou, and Tony Pena. These men know that winning, or losing, with class and respect were the real ways to open doors. Acting like a spoiled child with no sense of right and wrong whatsoever does not open doors, no matter if you win 162 games a season.

But let's investigate the most ludicrous part of Guillen's statement: "I opened a lot of doors ... because of ... things that happened in my career as a player."

Really. Is that so? I can only think of one active player, offhand, that your playing career made possible.

Guess who?

Albert Pujols? Not exactly.

Alex Rodriguez? Wrong division.

Jose Contreras? Maybe as a manager. Right city, wrong league.

How about Neifi Perez?

Keep in mind folks, that Ozzie Guillen is one of the absolute worst hitters of all-time. Number 8, Worst All-Time Runs Created Above Average. The idea that Guillen's playing career helped any of his countrymen, or any Latinos, in baseball is demented. If anything, a Latino who played the way Ozzie did would only slam doors in the faces of talented Latinos.

Let's make sure that whenever Ozzie retires (or gets run out of the sport), the whole city of Chicago get together to throw him a tickertape parade. But then Neife Perez should be the worst hitter in the history of baseball. We'll all know who to thank, Ozzie.

Get Well Card

2006-06-28T10:35:00.000-05:00

Everyone who cares about the sport of baseball already know this, and I'm sure I don't have anything original to say on the matter, but this is maybe the worst thing that could happen to baseball.

I took a hiatus from baseball during high school, in the period that the Yankees ruled the Earth. The Yankee dominance was the major reason for this, as was the general futility of my old hometown teams, the A's and Giants. When I came back around, Gammons was one of the regulars on Baseball Tonight, and I remember enjoying his performance immensely. He has made so many people on that program look so bad; his talent, wit and wisdom have outshone any person they've ever had in the studio. I know I've never met him, but I've always thought of him as a friend of mine. Best wishes Peter, and get well soon.

Ozzie Guillen, Lord of Tact

2006-06-22T11:16:00.000-05:00

I don't even have the energy to comment on anything this stupid. See here

Well, I lied, I do have the energy. Why do we put up with this? Why do we give a man who responds in profanity laced sexual and racial slurs any respect at all?

You want to talk about retaliation Ozzie? You want to talk about protecting your own? I want to see every player from Venezuela throw at your sluggers. I want to see every pitcher with a gay brother, a lesbian sister drill your lineup over and over again, with his hardest fastball, until he gets tossed from the game. Then I want to see the
next reliever do the same, over and over until the entire team is thrown out, and they have to forefit the game. That's how you make a statement about toughness

That's team solidarity, and that's what you deserve.

And furthermore, I would have expected John Rocker to be dead by now, from a combination of a painkiller overdose and mechanical-bull riding injury.

Ozzie Guillen, Master of Subtlety

2006-06-16T09:23:00.001-05:00

This is going to come as a shock to all our loyal readers out there, but someone hit A.J. Pierzynski twice in a game Wednesday.

I'll give you a moment to collect yourselves.

Now, it's not like Michael Barrett hit him. Vincente Padilla plunked him on the arm in his first two ABs. Now most teams might accept this as the sort of thing that happens to one of the most notorious loud mouths in the game. Most managers would understand that a player who was punched in the face in a game this year might be looking for trouble, and got what he deserved.

Padilla threw a three hitter against a dangerous offense, with seven strikeouts and nearly finished the game himself. Maybe this was meant to intimidate the Sox, maybe he was just fired up and wanted to show why the Rangers are leading their division mid-June. Maybe this was old-fashioned Nolan Ryan style hurling. Of all the managers in baseball, you would think Guillen would understand this sort of passion, and the smash-mouth style of play. After all, it's exactly the way he instructs his team to play. So did he?

No. Kind of had the opposite reation.

I tell you one thing, if Padilla hit me twice, right now I'd be in the hospital or I'd be dead. But I will fight. I will fight.

If you've ever wondered if Ozzie Guillen is crazy, you shouldn't be after hearing this. The man wants to turn the game of baseball into a street fight (which is, incidentally, the only reason you'd ever want A.J. Pierzynski on you team.) Makes me pine for the days when Pinella was blonde and Bowa was running the Phils into the ground.

God in the (Pitching) Machine

2006-06-14T14:08:00.000-05:00

Not long after a rain delay of 101 minutes, Albert Pujols slipped on the plastic on-deck logo that had become dangerously slick while chasing Jose Reyes' foul pop near the Cardinals' dugout in the eighth inning.

Pujols said the thought crossed his mind that the logo was going to come into play just before he slipped. He landed hard on his back and was down for several minutes before deciding to stay in the game. This is, of course, now very, very old news. Pujols' back injury, Grimsley, and any number of other stories have taken center stage. But I want to point us back a few weeks to the ESPN story, replete with quotes from the man himself.

"Right before I called for the ball I knew I was going to step on it, I think, and I knew I was going to have problems with it," Pujols said. "Hey, it happens. I'm glad it only had to happen one time before they took it out."Pujols said his upper back took the brunt of the impact, and he also felt his neck pop, but somehow he avoided banging his head, too. "It could have been worse," he said. "I could have broken my neck, I could have broken my back. The good Lord was watching me."

Ever since this entire nation finally gave into it's crush on Albert, (most waiting until the MVP last season to make it official) information on his squeaky-clean life has been hard to avoid. I know about his charity work, his marriage and his history. This article isn't meant to take him to task, or to spread steroid rumors. Even though the proof on Bonds took my baseball innocence, I won't start a witch hunt with Albert (though I won't ignore the warning signs I've been seeing either).

I'm sure God didn't want any harm to come to Albert, but was he really 'watching over him?' When Americans troops are being killed and maimed in war? When tens of thousands in this country go hungry and homeless every night? Sure, he's a good guy, and you might as well call him the Ned Flanders of baseball, (chiseled upper body, Churchy McChurch) but we need to stop indulging atheletes who think that God cares about touchdowns, home runs, strikeouts and freethrows. God has better things to do than watch baseball.

Twins Stadium Chaos (Part 2.5)

2006-05-09T13:49:00.000-05:00

We're on the final debate for the bill in the Senate. Members will make their final comments, and after that, we head to a full vote.

It was surprising that the amendments we not more controvertial. Of those that passed, one banned smoking on both stadiums, two were purely technical, and the final one dealt with a study of the impact that the convention center bundled with the Vikings stadium would have on comparable facilities around the metro. No one tried to split the stadiums, pull the referendum, or tack something onto the bill and kill it.

Senator Marty would be in good company amongst the writers on the Hardball Times (and elsewhere online) who question the sanity of those who advocate no public funding of stadiums. He offered an amendment that failed that would have, well, I'll just copy over the thrust of it:

"It is further found and declared that when public funds are expended for professional sports facilities, taxpayers are subsidizing a private business venture and the public deserves to receive the financial gains from its portion of the funds invested."

The final passage vote is up right now, and it squeaked by at 34 to 32. This doesn't mean the fun is over though, because now we move to conference committee and try to craft a bill that will pass both bodies and get past the Governor. There's a long way to go, but for those of us sick of watching baseball inside of that concrete monstrosity, this allows for that possibility sometime in the not too distant future.

Updates as they hit, from the Capitol.

Twins Stadium Chaos (Part 2.01)

2006-05-09T12:33:00.000-05:00

The Twins Stadium bill has officially hit the floor, in the form that includes a retractable roof, a Vikings stadium and entertainment complex, transit funding and it's almost all paid for by a half-cent sales tax increase on the seven county Minneapolis / St. Paul area, which would have to pass a referendum.

I'll update as I can with pertinent amendments and votes. Stay tuned.

Twins Stadium Chaos (Part 1.5)

2006-05-04T07:59:00.000-05:00

While I reported on Tuesday the 2nd of May that the Senate could likely have passed the Twins / Vikings bill on Wednesday the 3rd, they proved how unpredictable they really are, declining to take the bill before the end of the week. Our best information is that there will be a full vote on the floor on Monday, but as with everything here, it's up for negotiation.

The Senate also has the clock to contend with. The last possible day the Senate can meet is the 22nd of May, and due to the way the constitution for the Senate operates, the last day it's possible to pass legislation is the 21st of May. That's precious little time to pass the bill off the Senate floor, reconcile the radically different Senate bill with the House bill, and craft a piece of legislation that will pass a House body with a two seat (out of 134) Republican majority, a Senate body with a nine seat (out of 67) DFL majority, and a Republican Govenor who signed a pledge not to raise taxes.

Worst of all, if these don't pass this year, the cost is going to jump which might require restructuring the deal, and the earliest it could come up again is January 2007, when the legislation would have to be reintroduced and start the process from the very begining.

So the most I can say at this point is that on Monday we'll know more, and hopefully be a step closer to moving the Twins out of the worst stadium in baseball. Expect a full update after we get out Monday. Keep your fingers crossed.

Twins Stadium Chaos (Part 1)

2006-05-02T22:52:00.000-05:00

Well, as a few of you loyal readers might know, I worked in the Minnesota Senate last year, and I'm back again, having moved up a few floors. We've had a lot of movement on the Twins stadium this session, and a week ago it looked like it was a done deal.

But a little background before I go too far. The original Twins Stadium bill incorporated both private and public funding, the bulk of of the funding coming from a 0.15 percent sales tax on Hennepin county. As you can imagine, both those for the stadium and against it are A) incredibly passionate and B) almost always uninformed about the relevant economic theories. There are any number of sites where you can read commentary and analysis on how ballparks can be funded, my personal favorite being the Business of Baseball report at The Hardball Times. I don't have anything blazingly original to say on that subject; I haven't discovered a secret revenue stream that ballparks create; I haven't found some seedy loophole in the negotiations. But what I can give you is an inside look on the process by which the State of Minnesota is attmpeting to pass this controvertial bill.

Governor Tim Pawlenty, who is notorious for his "no new taxes" pledge had agreed to sign the bill into law. His lack of public profile on this issue has been a matter of speculation, but the safest bet seems to be that he wants to avoid this controversy so close to his run for reelection. It was then assumed widely that once the bill passed the House on April 26th, it would sail through the Senate and the Twins would no longer be doomed to the worst stadium in all baseball.

No one saw it coming. Taxes started hearing all three stadium bills (U of Minnesota Gophers Football, Minnesota Twins and Minnesota Vikings) on the 27th and that night in committee, everything changed. The Chair of the Tax Committee, Senator Pogemiller, announced a plan to fund the Twins Stadium with a retractable roof (which was not included in the original bill), the Vikings Stadium and various transit and highway projects with a seven county half-cent sales tax increase. The author of the original Senate Bill, Senator Steve Kelley, agreed to the amendment. This has not yet left taxes, and hasn't even been voted on, due to procedural technicalities (The Vikings bill is still in another committee, so it cannot be amended into the Twins bill).

This easily trumped the original controversey over whether or not there would be a referendum on the 0.15 sales tax increase in Hennepin county. This, however, is still an issue, as the Senate Tax Committee voted unanimously in support of a public referendum in their May 1st meeting.

Throughout the day on May 2nd, there actions were taken that further muddied the waters. After the Senate had finished everything on its slate, Senator Dean Johnson moved that the Senate go into recess rather than adjourning until the next day, which was what everyone expected. He said that the Senate would reconvene after a newly declared meeting of the Rules Committee, which he chairs.

We spent the rest of that day in speculation. Would Rules add or remove a member to the Tax Committee to break the deadlock? Would they take the bill from the Tax Committee and hear it themselves? Would it die in committee, or on a vote on the floor of the Senate.

Well, Rules did remove the bill from the Tax Committee, a version that included only funding for the Twins and had a .15 percent sales tax for Hennepin County. After that it was immediately ammended to take the Quasimodo-like form we'd seen in takes; a half-cent from the seven county metro area for the Twins and Vikings (and transit funding once both projects were paid for). The vote in committee was close, but still had breathing room. The action on the floor was a different story.

The simple procedure of adopting a committee report, an action that occurs any time a bill moves from one committee to another, turned into a firefight. If this would have failed, the bill would have gone back to the deadlock in the Tax COmmittee. The debate was fierce, with call for the subject of the vote to be clearly stated by Senator Johnson so that the media and the people of Minnesota could "know what he was up to." There were pleas for funding for homelessness, health care and education by Senators from both sides of the aisle. In the end, it survived on a 33 to 29 vote, with a number of Senators asking to be excused.

The Senate still wasn't finished. Senator Johnson recessed the Senate, and called the Rules Committee to reconvene "immediately after" recess. The Rules Committee then voted to send the new Twins / Vikings bill to the floor of the Senate, and as soon as that was done, the Rules Committee adjourned and Johnson reconvened the full Senate. Every bill requires a 'second reading,' basically the second time that a bill is formally recognized by the Senate, when it has cleared all necessary committees. This means that the bill could be voted on as soon as tomorrow.

This morning, no one thought the Twins stadium would even be voted on in Taxes, and now this bill could pass the Senate in 12 hours time. Even if it does pass, however, this story is by no means over; the Senate bill differs significantly from the House bill, and from what the Governor had promised to sign.

We've got a long way to go, sports fans, so stay tuned.

Your Major League Baseball ERA Leaders (Circa 1992)

2006-04-25T16:56:00.000-05:00

We're going to ignore John Thompson for a second (hell, why not all season while we're at it) and look at the ERA leaders this season on April 23.

1. Greg Maddux (back in Chicago) - 0.99
2. Some pitcher (in Atlanta, ironic, isn't it?) - something inbetween, just under 1.38
3. Tom Glavine (in New York) - 1.38

Who in their right mind would have guessed this was possible at any point this season? Even if you were told you had to pick one starter in Chicage and one starter in New York City, who would have gone for Mad Dog and his old partner in crime in Atlanta? I had Maddux on my fantasy team for the first three starts of the season and reluctantly parted with him only to fill the gaping holes in my bullpen. It's amazing that both of these pitchers, well beyond their physical prime, are still throwing as well as they ever have.

I know that Glavine had a middling start yesterday, and his ERA has climbed to (gasp) 2.78, but that through one tenth of the season, these two were the best the majors had to offer.

Joe Morgan was asked about what Maddux's legacy should be, in comparison to the greatest pitchers of all-time, and in typical Joe Morgan fashion, he hemmed and hawed himself into incoherence. He would not say that Maddux was as good as, say, Kofax, but he said that he should go down as "one of the elite." For once, you can accuse Joe Morgan of an understatement.

ESPN Watch: Position Upgrade

2006-04-21T14:57:00.000-05:00

The first thing I noticed while watching Opening Day on ESPN was the new graphics and transitions for baseball. They've dumped the neon red and blue scheme that matched the SportsCenter set and the new look incorporates an almost cubist simplification of elements of the field and card houses from vintage baseball cards. They've also dropped the segements promoting bands that have some afinity for (but no understanding of) baseball. The crew has also done a wonderful job of showing relevant archived clips throughout the game.

I recently read The Last Nine Innings, which at points talked about using new camera angles and perspectives to enhance enjoyment of the game while at the same time giving a clearer perspective of what's really happeneing. With all due respect, I don't really care if I see Orlando Cabrera repositioning himself for a weak groundout when Bartolo Colon throws a slider down and away. That in no way enhances my baseball experience. But if I understand the way that the game of today connects to the mythic moments I was too young to have seen, I feel connected with them, and that's why we really watch baseball; to feel a connection to a noble sport.

I'm going to do something you readers have rarely seen, laud ESPN. Congratulations for refining a good broadcast into a great one. With changes like this, and K Zone in years previous, you've set a new standard that all baseball broadcasts will be measured by.

ESPN Watch: Morgan & Bonds (sounds like a brokerage)

2006-04-17T10:30:00.000-05:00

It was truly depressing watching Bonds in the Giants win last night. His legs are linguini, and he's begining to look like McGwire in his last season, when his power disappeared almost overnight. We've lost something from the game of baseball, and even though it was chemically fueled. It's hard to know what to think of anything over the last ten years. Bonds downfall makes us realize what he could have looked like for the last three years, and what so many other players would have looked like too. I won't fill this blog with the sort of speculation that has become so popular, who did / who didn't, but I've found myself watching games this season, seeing home runs and saying to myself "He used." One shot in particular at PetCo from an aging slugger made me realize that the sport is suspect, especially without testing for HGH. At least the suspensions are stiff enough to put some real fear into players (I hope).

Last night on the Sunday Night Baseball telecast, Joe Morgan unveiled what we all hope will be his last creative addition to baseball broadcasting. Joe Morgan's Swing Analyzer, complete with cheesy graphics and far, far too much analysis of something that people either already understand, or never will. It's not quite as bad as the puppet baseballs that FOX used last year, but it's an excuse to let Joe Morgan talk more (which we can all live without). If someone on the ESPN staff has to do deeper analysis, why can't it be Gammons, who sits on his ass for two hours at the game and talks for about fiveminutes. I want Gammons in that booth, or at least Harold Reynolds.

However, it's amazing how Tim McCarver makes Joe Morgan look like Edward R. Murrow. Here's hoping that ESPN gets the rights to the World Series after FOX's contract runs out.

Incoherent Overreaction Time

2006-04-13T09:03:00.000-05:00

Well, we're less than a month into the season, but the wild speculation over which teams are irretrievably broken has begun.

From Sports Illustrated: Early prognosis on MLB's slow starters by John Donovan

Nobody wants to fall out of bed like the Rangers have done this April. Nobody wants to wake up one morning, a week into a ridiculously long and impossibly arduous baseball season, and look into the ugly mug of a 1-6 record, like the Phillies have been forced to do.

Now, one and six is not good, but given the inconsistency of starting pitchers early in the season, there isn't much cause for worry. At one point last season, the World Series Champion White Sox (writing that just makes me feel dirty) had a 3 and 6 stretch. Baseball is a game of averages, and while a well timed streak can do wonders, we don't have to worry about every little game.

I've seen articles on ESPN in the same vein, and in print in the Sporting News and our local daily, the Star Tribune. I would like to enact a moratorium on predictions from a sample size of less than 20 games. By that time, a rotation has gone around a few times, players have settled in as much as they're going to, and we can meaningfully look at what their performance signifies for the success of the team. Fellow bloggers, join mean in signing your handle in the comments and if I recieve enough signatures, I will send them to the Congressional committee investigating steroid use, to see if they can help our noble cause.

Honestly, the Phils do have some warning signs, but they're not surprises. It's the same problems they've had for years, and they've become so common as to no longer merrit doomsday predictions and crazy scenarios that involve a Pete Rose comeback.

Although he could hit in the clutch.

Twins Home Opener

2006-04-12T10:54:00.000-05:00

Despite the matchup of Danny Haren, one of Oakland's new "Big Five" (a phrase I just coined) and Brad Radke, a renowned control expert, last night's game was hardly a pitchers duel. 13 runs, 19 hits and both totals would have been higher if not for so good leather work by both teams.

Radke breezed through the first with 2 strikeouts, but the A's three runs in the second muted the sellout crowd (just shy of 49,000), touched off by a screaming homer from Chavez. The A's tacked on one more in the fourth before the Twins rallied. A Morneau strikeout was the only break in a string of 7 straight hits that brought in 6 runs. Danny "Lost-In-Translation" Batista knocked one out with two men on
and two outs in that rally for his second HR of the year.

The Twins added insurance in the form of a Morneau homer, which came in handy after Chavez's second home run of the night, closing the gap to 7-6. This was as close as Oakland would get, wasting a chance in the ninth to take advantage of a uncharacteristically wild Joe Nathan. His ball to strike numbers don't look particularly bad, but he looked very rusty. In a one run game, the worst thing a closer can do is issue a walk. Never give the other team a chance to win the game with one swing.

It was great to see professional baseball again, but I was once again reminded of how truly pathetic the Metrodome is as a baseball stadium. Here's hoping that the stadium deal for the Twins makes it through the legislature. Maybe by the time I've gotten out of this city, they'll have a passable park. That's the way it goes, I guess. Bad calls have always been part of the game.

Postscript:

Fans amuse me. You can have a stadium of 50,000, of which maybe 1,000 have a good enough view to judge a pitch as a strike or a ball. Still on any pitch that isn't in the dirt on a 2 strike count, everyone either sighs or boos. It's just funny to me.

Righty's Fantasy Team: 4/5/2006

2006-04-05T09:35:00.000-05:00

I was drafted to fill the last spot in the fantasy baseball league for the Minnesota Senate. You can all follow along with my season in periodic posts. Here's the team in it's current form.

Position Players

B. Molina - (Tor - C)

V. Martínez - (Cle - C)

C. Delgado - (NYM - 1B)

M. Ellis - (Oak - 2B, SS)

D. Wright - (NYM - 3B)

J. Peralta - (Cle - SS)

G. Atkins - (Col - 3B)

B. Hall - (Mil - 2B, 3B, SS)

J. Damon - (NYY - OF)

C. Crisp - (Bos - OF)

J. Gomes - (TB - OF)

B. Wilkerson - (Tex - 1B, OF)

M. Kotsay - (Oak - OF)

Starting Pitchers

C. Zambrano - (ChC - SP)

J. Schmidt - (SF - SP)

B. Zito - (Oak - SP)

D. Haren - (Oak - SP)

J. Blanton - (Oak - SP)

B. Webb - (Ari - SP)

L. Hernández - (Was - SP)

G. Maddux - (ChC - SP)

S. Baker - (Min - SP)

Relief Pitchers

K. Farnsworth - (NYY - RP)

K. Calero - (Oak - RP)

D. Wheeler - (Hou - SP)

It's a ten team league, and I had the last spot, so I had to select two players immediately after one another, and then wait for 18 other picks to act again. I missed out on the early closer run, so I decided to draft strong starters.

Monday was the first day of our season, and I had a horrible day. Zito made it only one and a third, Zambrano went out early, Schmidt did not throw well, and neither Webb nor Livan won, though pitching well. But yesterday my hitters rebounded, and I moved up four spots into a solid fifth.

Expect some real commentary later on in the week, and next week a report on the Twins home opener, which I am attending. Until next time, sports fans.

"The fault, Dear Brutus..."

2006-03-15T12:02:00.000-06:00

At the Confines, we've all weighed in on the Bonds issue. You readers know where we stand, and you're aware that I said I wanted proof. That proof has been plastered across the front page of every sports section of every paper in the country. The only possible exceptions are here in Minneapolis and St. Paul where we're mourning a fatal tragedy, not one of character.

I still see genuis in his swing; I still watch his at-bats in rapt attention, but something has changed. I'd held on to my "shadow of a doubt" arguments, and now that they're gone, I don't know what to think of him.

The media blitz has been brutal, and while I agree that the truth needs to be told, I have nothing but contempt for the writers who used this man as a meal ticket for the last five seasons, only to tear him apart now for the sake of a story. Let's be honest, this isn't about the sanctity of baseball, or we would have seen these sorts of accusations and stories in the press during the McGwire / Sosa race. This isn't about the protection of the most unreachable record in all of sports, all-time home runs, or we wouldn't have seen all the fanfare for the tens of milestones Barry has passed in the last few seasons. And this most certianly isn't about a feeling of betrayal, since no one seem to be hurt that this went on.

This is about revenge. Not necessarily the books themselves, although I reserve the right to comment after I have a chance to look at them myself. Most of the articles written are knife-twisting character assassinations. The venom and bile that has been unleashed in print and on the web could fuel a chemical weapons plant. How they've all forgotten that none of them published a damn word detailing steroid use until Jose Canseco wrote a book. As I think the Texas Rangers must have said many times, if we're depending on Jose Canseco, we're in real trouble. The writers were even slower and tamer than Congress in demanding answers from players on the steroid issue. But now they're shocked and appalled by Bonds, damning him as the worst cheat in baseball since the Black Sox. He may go down in history more hated than Pete Rose.

When I look at this, I don't see a chance for revenge against a star who, true, was frosty and combattive in his dealings with the press. I see Shakespearian tragedy. Bonds was a man with enormous talent, a true five-tool player who had already accomplished amazing things. But when he saw the media fall in love with Sammy and Mark, he wanted a piece. He was a better player, a better athlete, fielder, base stealer, runner and thrower. The only thing he wasn't better at was hitting home runs. He's the only 400/400 player in history, and furthermore, the only 500/500 player in history. But those records weren't enough for him.

I thought this article put it all nicely into perspective. Bonds wanted to be the media darling so bad that he was willing to radically chemically alter his body to do so, but it was no worse than McGwire, or Giambi, or Palmiero. He did cheat, but Caminiti put the bar at 75 percent of players. He was not alone. Bonds' competitive drive, that had made him so great was the same thing that brought him down in the end. It's reminiscent of Henry Bolingbroke in Richard II, when Bolingbroke kills and deposes a good king over a matter of pride and percieved injustice. Barry played the game brilliantly for 16 seasons, with nothing more that mortal blood in his veins, and a love of the game in his heart. It was his love for himself and how he played the game that led him away from that. That hubris is classical tragic flaw, and while such subects are treated with great tenderness and understanding by Shakespeare, they are not by mainstream sports writers. 'Tis a pity.

There are a few open-minded articles out there, but most reporters are having a field day, trotting out the articles they've worked on for years, titled "F@*% Barry Bonds (all the way to the bank)." Look, I don't think this guy is a hero, or even a particularly nice person. But I don't think he's the poster child for steroid abuse, and I don't think assassinating him in print is a noble act by the press. The MLB, the Player's Association, the press and the fans covered their eyes and ears. It should have been clear to us years ago, but no one wanted to pull back the curtain.

We now look down on Bonds for taking the easy way out, but didn't we all? His fault lies in himself, as ours do in ourselves. We entered into a confederacy of ignorance with the press and the MLB, that has been falling away bit by bit for the last few years. His fault, and ours, lie not in the stars, they are in ourselves.

You may not believe it, but I didn't realize that this post would go up on the Ides of March when I decided on the title. However, I will end on a note that is decidedly less than Shakespearian. There was a Simpsons episode a few years back where Bart takes a drug for ADD and discovers a conspiracy orchestrted by Major League Baseball. Mark McGwire shows up to placate the townspeople and asks them the following question:

"Do you want to know the terrifying truth, or do you want to see me sock a few dingers?"

Now we all know the answer to that question.

Quick Notes: March 3, 2006

2006-03-03T08:35:00.000-06:00

Best Line by a writer this week - from The Hardball Times Offseason Rankings: Middle Third by Ben Jacobs

The only hope for Cubs fans is that Dusty Baker finally realizes that Perez isn't any good, which basically means there's no hope for Cubs fans.

Best Line by a writer last week - from A's Nation The Numbers Game by Blez

11,110: The number of times that the term Moneyball will be used in reference to Billy Beane throughout the season. Seriously, this book is going to be etched on Billy's tombstone.

11,109: The number of times people will misunderstand the general theme of the book.

11,108: The number of times it will be Joe Morgan.

My guess for the other time? Kruk.

Best Line by a player - Mike Mussina, on the DH

"When I lose something off my fastball, am I allowed to pitch from five feet closer?"

Best Award of the week - Sportszilla, Athelete Most Likely to Wind up on a Reality Show

If it wasn’t for the fact Rickey’s been hanging around independent minor league teams, Rickey would have probably already have made an appearance. Rickey can’t get enough of Rickey. That’s why Rickey will one day realize Rickey deserves to be beyond baseball and try Rickey’s hand on TV. Rickey will appear on “Celebrity Survivor: Sri Lanka” just to show the world that a 50 something year old Rickey is more in shape than a 27 year old Sasha Cohen. Rickey will tell her Rickey doesn’t fall on the big stage and will show her Rickey’s World Series rings to prove it. Rickey will win because Rickey is patient and will wait out all the competitors. Rickey will lull them to sleep with uninspired play, then turn it on and show them all Rickey’s boss. Then Rickey will do talk shows and say how if Rickey can win on Survivor, Rickey still deserves to be playing major league baseball. And sadly, since multiple teams will probably be starting a guy with on base percentage around .310, Rickey will be right.

Just a few random thoughts.

People really, really hate Barry Bonds (which he makes very easy to do). The bile that has leeched out of ESPN online in the last few weeks has been blacker and more poisonous that the fluids running through Dick Cheney's heart. Independent of anything else, we've been taught since we were children that is is not acceptable to root for players to be hurt, and this is a horrible message to be delivering to our kids. The steriod message is also bad, but I'm still one of those people who wants incontrovertible proof, and I haven't seen it yet. This is part of a larger trend of the public and sportswriters pressuring aging atheletes to retire. Rickey, above, is another, and the same thing happened to Jerry Rice. Just let these guys play; we owe them that much for everything they've given us.

The WBC is not going to catch on unless ESPN and MLB do a better job of promotion. There need to be team profiles, and for the love of god, announcers on every game. I watched the Korea / China Taipei matchup on MLB.com and there wasn't any commentary at all, not even in Mandarin (or whatever other language it would have been in). If these aren't fixed next year, I won't bother watching anything but the televised games.

Spring Training coverage makes breakfast fun again. I catch some of the rerun in the morning and it's so nice to see the boys of summer gearing up. One month to go.

Finding in Favor of the MLB: Part 1

2006-02-13T11:47:00.000-06:00

In the last two weeks, there have been two major court decisions that have found in favor of the Minnesota Twins and the General Area of Southern California and Orange County Angels. Both of htese cases have huge ramafications for these teams, and the Angels case may resonate throughout baseball.

I'll take a look at the Twins case in the first installment. The Twins ruling looks bad for the future of Minnesota Baseball, at least at face value. Hennepin County District Judge Charles Porter freed the Twins from any obligations to the Metrodome, meaning that the team could move to another stadium as their heart desires. However, since there is no party of city known to be wooing the Twins, and the market for relocation is incredibly weak (despite what the Marlins would like the Florida legislature to believe), what this really does is bring the Twins stadium issue to the forefront. The Gophers and especially the Vikings have dominated the stadium discussion, and this gives the Twins a real opportunity to resurrect the talks that ran out of time in the government shutdown that took place last session.

I'd like to take a second and talk about why I feel it's more important, at an empirical level, the the Twins get a new stadium. The Twins suffer from low attendance and this problem affects them for each one of their 81 home games. The Vikings and Gophers have very high attendance, spurred by alumni and rabid fans and by the very limited number of games they play. This limited supply ensures that there is always enough demand for high ticket revenues.

It also seems to me that while baseball attendance is affected by winning (see here, here, and here) it is also affected by amenities, style and ballpark attractiveness. When spent my summers in the Bay Area, all things being equal, I would rather have gone to Pac Bell / SBC / AT&T Park than Network Associates / McAfee Coliseum simply because it was a much nicer ballpark. I also feel like a brand new ballpark here could bring in casual fans who want to find a novel activity for the evening (or afternoon). But a domed, ancient concrete baseball stadium isn't much of a draw. Without the mosquitos, the summers in Minneapolis are wonderful, and let's face it, we all know that baseball was meant to be played outdoors.

The Brewers have averaged over 2 million a year since they started playing at Miller Park, and it is a wonderful park to watch a game in. The last time they had any season as high in attendance was in 1992 when they went 92-70 and finished 4 games behind Toronto for the Al East crown. Their winning percentage in the five seasons in Miller is .4185. So by winning only about 40 % of their games, a team in a city of about 600,000 can draw 2,150,791 people in a year. However, the Twins, who have a wining percentage of almost .550 and draw from a combined Minneapolis and St Paul population of about 655,000.

Let's recap that for those of you in the cheap seats. Positive things will be in bold, negative in italics. The Brewers pull in more fans from a smaller city while they win fewer games. The Twins pull in fewer fans from a larger city-area while winning more games (and making the playoffs THREE STREAIGHT YEARS).

Is there that much of a cultural distance between Minnesota and Wisconsin? Do Milwaukee and the Twin Cities differ that greatly in love of baseball? My guess would be no. Maybe we can call this an entirely new kind of ballpark effect.

Stay tuned for part two, and the naming controversy in So Cal. T-minus 48 days and counting.

ESPN Watch: Central Controversy

2006-02-08T11:00:00.000-06:00

After this article, I swear I'll write about something other than ESPN for awhile. However, they've managed to get it all wrong again. Jerry Crasnick published an article yesterday about who he saw as the two surprise teams this year. The Brewers and the Twins. Now I actually think his comments on the Brewers were well thought out, and there is some evidence to suggest that they could be good enough to pick up a Wild Card berth. The Astros lost a piece or two, and will need another starter to stay in contention. The Cubs always find a way to blow it, and the Reds and Pirates suffer from a complete lack of an organizational strategy, and the West and East in the NL haven't been very good, as a whole recently.

But the Twins? The Twins would be a surprise to contend in the AL Central? The Twins who won the division three years running (2002 to 2004)? The twins who added a .313/.348/.489 slugger and a .301/.391/.374 leadoff man? By the way, only three regulars in the offense posted any one stat better than White, and none posted a higher overall line (Mauer and LeCroy had better OBP, Hunter had a slightly higher SLG), and White's one liability, his defense, is mitigated by the fact that he will be playing as a DH. Castillo's OBP is easily higher than any Twin last year, and his career average for SB is almost double the highest Twin total. True, they did lose Jacque Jones, but he hit .249/.319/.438 last season and hit 254/.315/.427 the year before. Mauer should also be better than he was last season, with men on base to drive in and protection behind him in the order. All the intentional walks for Mauer should go down too. Opposing teams took the bat out of his hands last year, knowing he was the only real power threat on the team. Now that he should have more opportunities to hit in situations where the pressure is on the pitcher, he could do some damage.

And let's not forget the 2004 AL Cy Young winner (who was damn close this season as well) and his backup Radke. This is a 1-2 punch that most teams would kill to have. The bullpen, even with the loss of Romero, is rock solid, and should remain so for a long time.

So, no, the Twins don't surprise me, and I think they have an excellent shot to win the AL Central. When you take into account that the White Sox had 36 one-run victories in the regular season (over 36 % of their wins), and if you believe in the Bill James wisdom on one-run games (that they're luck), they don't look that dominant. They're dangerous, as are the Indians, but the Sox aren't the juggernauts they're made out to be, and the Indians didn't do enough to improve. I expect to see a three horse race, and if the Twins come out on top, well, I wouldn't be surprised.

ESPN Watch: More of the same

2006-02-07T13:15:00.000-06:00

Don't get me wrong, there is a good deal of accurate commentary on ESPN, but at times they simply don't bother to take enough time to do any real analysis. Sure, Gammons might be doing something, but whatever he's writing is trapped behind the impenetrable curtain of Insider. Another article out today exhibits this almost complete lack of critical thought. Most of Sean McAdam's column (found here) was well written, but in his analysis of the NL West, he seems to have lost it. I've reproduced the worst paragraph here.

The Dodgers (Rafael Furcal, Nomar Garciaparra and Danys Baez) have made great strides and the Giants figure to be more of a factor with Barry Bonds healthier. Then there are the Diamondbacks, who continue to take steps back to contention.

Half true, complete understatement, and completely false.

The Dodgers have taken steps to improve, but I don't really think that losing Milton Bradley, adding a huge injury risk in Nomar and adding Dany Baez are completely offset by acquiring Furcal. They got better, but not much.

The Giants have a solid number two behind Schmidt, for the first time in memory, Bonds proved last season that he was healthy enough to keep playing like himself (see his HR at RFK if you doubt this), and Randy Winn seems to have had a renaissance. The Giants will win significantly more games than last year; count on it.

The Diamondbacks made a trade to make Vazquez happy, and picked up a pitcher who isn't much better, or much worse. But more to the point, I have the two most important statistics from the D'Backs 2005 campaign: 696 runs scored, 856 runs allowed. Using the Pythagorean Win Theorem, they had a predicted winning percentage of less than 40 %, which roughly equates to 64 wins. The Padres, by the way, were at 684 RS and 726 RA. Statistical anomalies do not persist season after season, and the snakes play the way they did last season, they could rival the Rockies for last in the West.

Just doing my part to keep your heads on straight, Confines readers. With the season ramping up, and the Classic less than two months away, expect more in the way of articles, especially with the return of Aho from overseas. Just 54 days until Opening Day.

ESPN Watch: Loss of Perspective

2005-12-15T08:24:00.000-06:00

I caught the 7AM replay of the December 14 SportsCenter. It's hard to know if the commentators are actually getting stupider themselves, or if ESPN is deliberately searching out dumber and dumber contributors. Steve Phillips analyzed the most recent White Sox trade and concluded that the White Sox rotation was now "One of the best ever." Best ever? Even though I'm writing this at 8:30 in the morning, I feel like I need a stiff drink before responding to that point.

So a rotation of John Garland, Mark Buehrle, Javier Vazquez, Jose Contreras, and Freddy Garcia are among the best ever even though ...

Not one of those pitchers won 20 games.

13 of Buehrle's 16 wins came by one run.

Freddy Garcia has had only one season with and ERA below 3.8

Contreras and Garcia were tied for first in Wild Pitches in the majors. Contreras was also tied for the lead last season.

The Sock highest on the K list was Contreras, at # 34, right behind Jeff Weaver.

Vazquez was rated as almost exactly average (99 ERA+) last season

Thank god that the producers at ESPN haven't completely lost their minds and showed us a few teams in the last two decades that have had dominant starters. The A's in '89 and '90 were mentioned, as well as the Braves from about '91 to '96. I'm sure that any real baseball historian could come up with a slew of other teams, and I'll admit I'm partial to the 2002 A's. If you've got any favorites that I clearly don't know about, drop us some comments and let us know. We're a bit weak on our baseball history.

Still, I think we can all agree that Phillips was either engaging in self-satire at such an involved level that it was impossible to distinguish form sincerity, or that he simply doesn't know very much about baseball. I'll admit I lost a lot of respect for him a few weeks ago when he admitted to knowing of rampant steroid use in the Mets minor league system in the ESPN 15-page expose. It's clear that a lot of people knew, coaches, players and trainers, but you would think that as a journalist he would have considered it his duty to have brought this information to light earlier.

Is the Sox rotation one of the best ever? The answer is no. Are they the best in the majors? Very likely. The Cubs are hampered by injury, the Astro's will likely lose Clemens, and the Marlins sold everyone but Dontrelle. But isn't calling them the best rotation in the majors enough? Do we have to go to ridiculous lengths to praise them, making ourselves look foolish in the process? They've been a media darling most of the last nine months, but I'll let them throw a few pitches before bronzing them.

Joining the 22nd Century

2005-12-14T09:03:00.000-06:00

Well, not exactly, but the Friendly Confines can now be access through various newsreader services. If anyone out there needs another format, just leave suggestions in the comments and I'll get it up ASAP. Just one note, for those of you with gmail accounts, you can put us right on your Individualized Google homepage.

Stay tuned for more baseball comments; hopefully our crack staff can make some sense of the trades made so far this offseason. Until then, let's just hope that A-Rod get a chance to make a takeout slide on Jeter in the World Baseball Classic.

Anonymous Sources: December 9, 2005

2005-12-09T15:03:00.000-06:00

Compare these two statements:

"Player A has made it known he's willing to play any position but pitcher and catcher."

"I have the same position [on moving] as I always had... " Player B told the newspaper. "I said that I'm not going to change from [my position]."

Compare these numbers

Player A, 32, 10 seasons)


  G   AB     R    H  2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO    BA   OBP   SLG 
+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+
1071 4363  765 1395 305 50 191  740  86 29 307 444  .320  .367  .544

Player B, 30 (in January), 7 seasons


  G   AB     R    H  2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO    BA   OBP   SLG 
+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+
 802 3255  505  912 199 16 162  465 169 43 157 676  .280  .320  .500

Now I'm sure you already know who Players A and B are. You probably knew when I began but they are (A) Nomar Garciaparra and (B) Alfonso Soriano. Given the numbers, given the attitude, who would you rather have? Just a rumination on the value of players, and the value of team players.

Dr Loria or How I Learned To Stop Worrying and Love the Fire Sale

2005-12-07T08:28:00.000-06:00

From the way things look right now, when we start the 2006 season, the Devil Rays will be the more recognizable team in Florida, and, honestly, there will only be 31 major league teams playing. In a sense, contractions will have happened, in a roundabout way. If the season started today, this would be the starting lineup for the Marlins.

1B - Jason Stokes / Joe Dillon / Mike Jacobs
2B - Josh Wilson
SS - Hanley Ramirez / Robert Andino
3B - Alfredo Amezaga
LF - Chris Aguila
CF - Reggie Abercrombie / Eric Reed
RF - Miguel Cabrera
C - Matt Treanor / Josh Willingham
P - Dontrelle Willis

I recognize two of those names, which is why my choices for infielders are probably completely wrong. Wilson, Ramirez, Andino and Amezaga are all listed as SS. This is a minor league team with the exception of two players. I'd list a possible five man rotation, but beyond Dontrelle, I can't tell who the starters are for the Marlins. If I knew the minors better, I might be able to pull something together, but as it is I'm stumped.

But in a sense, this can't be the minor leagues, because this team, this year, is Major League.

I can see you're confused.

While Rachel Phelps looked far better than Loria ever would in a bikini, while Willie Mays Hayes hits and runs better than Cabrera, and while the Marlins do not have any players who actively practice voodoo, this is the fictional Indian team from the movie. Loria is going to put an awful team on the field, let them rack up about 90 losses for the next few years, and then aggressively demand a new stadium in about 2008 or 2009 or threaten to move the team when the lease at Pro Player Stadium runs out in 2010. His argument is going to be that without a new stadium, the team can't remain competitive, that "there must not be a stadium gap!"

The good news in Dr. Strangelove is that it was all over after the bomb was dropped, that we never had to watch the aftermath. We're going to get a front row seat this year.

Three Pieces: Washington Nationals

2005-11-28T10:43:00.000-06:00

The 2005 season was a success in a lot of ways for the Nationals. Away from the baseball Siberia of Montreal the Nats were a far more competitive team, particularly during the first half of the season. Although they fell in the standings after the break, they managed finish at exactly .500, far exceeding many preseason preditions, including my own. Can Washington build on their success first year success, or will they go the way of last MLB team to play in DC "First in war, first in peace, last in the American League" (which is would now be last in the National League East)?

1. Fire Jim Bowden

I've long been of the opinion that this man is the worst GM in baseball. His undistinguished tenure as Reds GM saw years of failing to address an obvious pitching weakness at either the minor league or major league level. His free agent signings last winter was some of the worst I've ever seen. Granted, I didn't think Guzman would become the worst everyday player in the game, but it wasn't difficult to predict he might not be worth the lavish contract Bowden offered him. And Vinny Castilla?! If there was ever a textbook case of the Coors Field effect, here it was. I give him some credit for making bold moves to try and improve the Nationals, but they were all the wrong ones. The Nationals managed to compete despite the moves Bowden made in the off-season, not because of them. If it wasn't for the emotional boost from playing in front of an enthusiastic home crowd for the first time in years, the Nationals may very well have finished well below 500.

2. Find an Owner

The Nationals may be able to get along with being a ward of Major League Baseball for a time. In the long term however, it will be impossible to remain a viable franchise without a new stadium and without an owner. I'm rather mystified why Reggie Jackson was reportedly interested in the Twins who aren't for sale and don't have a new stadium in place, even considering he wanted to move them to Vegas. The Nationals on the other hand have been on the market for a long time, have become a proven draw for fans, and are currently competitive. Baseball needs to do a better job of selling this club, and do whatever it takes to make the Nationals attractive to a potential owner. It would be better for the game if owners were forced to open their collective wallet and pay for a new ballpark, rather than allow the Nationals to fail in their new market. These next few months will be critical for the future of the franchise.

3. Fix the Trouble on the Farm

In a recent poll on John Sickel's excellent prospect blog, readers ranked the Nationals dead last in terms of their farm system. While I believe that is highly debatable choice (the Yankees are at least as bad) this is a major problem for the Nationals. No team can afford to completely neglect their minor league system, as the Yankees are beginning to find out. While the Yankees have the breathing room that 200 million dollars in payroll can provide, the Nationals have a far smaller margin for error. With nearly all of their most highly touted prospects failing to meet expectations in 2005, the Nationals have a long way to go. They need to revamp their entire draft strategy, minor league instruction and prospect analysis systems. Unforunately I have abolutely no faith in Jim Bowden to do this properly. This will be an uphill climb, at best, and could eliminate the chances of long term competitiveness in DC.

The Bottom Line:

The Nationals have a lot of problems. While the Major League team is in moderately good shape with the help of workhorses like Livan Herandez, they have a number of severe long term problems. The problems of the Nationals go beyond the simple solution of adding some right handed power or finding a dependable number two starter; the Nationals need to make the kind of decisions which will determine their viability as a baseball franchise. Without a new owner, a competent general manager and the painstaking work of rebuilding a shattered minor league organization the Nationals will simply not succeed. For the sake of Major League Baseball, I hope either I'm wrong that they find a way to solve these problems. Otherwise, the issue of contraction may very well be back on the table, and our national capital may, once again, want for a home team.

Three Pieces: San Diego Padres

2005-11-23T12:10:00.000-06:00

While the Padres did manage to 'win' the NL West, it was kind of like beating your younger sibling in a competition, unsatisfying and ultimately a victory that leaves more questions about your skills than answers. If the Padres had been in the NL East, they would have finished one game out of last place, and now they've made a trade for an aging slugger with that one team the would have beaten in the East. But can the Padres manage to win this season, after going only 82 and 80 last year? Will anyone hit a homerun to straightaway center? Will Bruce Bochy, dissatisfied by the play of any thirdbaseman for the second straight season, begin playing the San Diego Chicken?

1. Have fun

Team that develop a tradition of winning, and teams that have won in the playoffs over the last decade or so, have by in large, been teams that clearly enjoyed playing the game. The White Sox are clearly an example of this in 2005, as were the Astros. If you go back a year, the same thing was true of the Red Sox, and before them the Marlins, Angels, Diamondbacks, Yankees and the Marlins again. The division winners (or contenders) usually tend to be teams that enjoy themselves as well, the A's and Twins of recent years come to mind. Last year, no one in the NL West was having any fun. Everyone was worrying about not losing, and this isn't a great way to become inspired. The pressure is going to kill the Padres if they don't relax, especially with the possibility of a full season from Barry Bonds, a man who creates more offense than any other player in the majors. If they worry about the homeruns they're going to give up (away from PetCo), about the errors they're going to make, the games they're going to lose, they're going to 'Bill Buckner' themselves to death.

2. Bring in the fences

I spent far too long searching for this article on ESPN.com, only to find it on MLB.com. Thank you Business of Baseball report. It addresses the Padres' plan to bring in the fences in right center from 411 feet to about 395. The hitters in San Diego have been so flummoxed by the dimensions of the field, even a small change may give players a psychological boost. It's a gesture, sure, but it's something. Hopefully they get this into action soon enough to have it in place for the World Baseball Classic. I can't tell you how excited I am about this, and it's great to see how much this means to all the international players.

3. Start using/acquiring some speed

Cameron could help the Padres. He went .273/.342/.477 last year and is .249/.340/.442 for his career. Nady is .263/.320/.414 fo his career, so San Diego is picking up some power. I'm not even going to dignify the trade for Vinny Castilla with a response. Okay, that was harsh, but the man spent 8 seasons in Colorado and turns 38 this year. He's just very high risk. But to trying to bring in sluggers is not a great strategy for this team. Right now, there's little difference between this team and the Marlins: young, hard throwing starters who may turn out great, a huge outfield, and an identity crisis. The Marlins were a success when they built on their speed and pitching and stopped trying to hit balls out of the park. This apporach should be drilled into Padres hitters' heads, and the GM's office should make every attempt to move more speed into any position they can. With a few more manufactured runs, the Padres might be able to move to five games over .500, and repeat in the NL West.

Three Pieces: Milwaukee Brewers

2005-11-21T22:44:00.000-06:00

At the end of nearly every season there are a number of up-and-coming ballclubs who believe that they need just one or two more key players in order to make the playoffs. The Brewers have been mocked from all corners of the baseball world in recent years. They were the team (well, one of the teams) nobody loved. Baseball fans in small markets outside Wisconsin resented them because they were Selig's team. Others have mocked Miller Park as a expensive boondoggle because of its neverending roof problems. However, in 2005 the Brewers proved that on the field, they would not be the subject to the same sort of ridicule they've seen for over a decade. The Brewers were suprisingly competitive last season, managing to avoid a losing season for the first time since 1992. But will they continue to move forward, or will they be more notable for plunging their mascot into a tub of beer than for baseball exellence?

1. Don’t Panic

The tendency of a lot of organizations with an emerging core of good, young players is to sign a big name guy or two to compliment them. This isn’t a horrible strategy; in fact I wish my hometown team had pursued it long ago. In the case of the Brewers, however, it would be a big mistake. The free agent market is too thin and the players in it too overvalued for the Brewers to take a chance on it. Anyway, the Brewers already added the big bat they needed in the Podsednik for Lee trade (one of those rare moves which seemed to help both clubs). This isn’t to say the Brewers don’t have needs; theirs are just less dire than the needs than most clubs, and will not be filled with an overpriced free agent.

2. A good bullpen arm

The Brewers have a young rotation, and I believe that their young arms like Jose Capellan and Chris Capuano will continue to develop under the pitching coach Mike Maddox (and yes, he’s Greg Maddox’s bother). Ben Sheets is an established force at the major league level, and Tomo Ohka is a solid number four guy, especially when you consider how cheap he came from Washington. However, I’m concerned about the relief pitching. Derrick Turnbow had a breakout year in 2005. Coming out of nowhere (reminiscent of Eric Gange in 2002), Turnbow saved 42 games with a ERA of 1.74 and became one of the great success stories of 2005. Considering his age (27) and his strong K/9 and BB/9 ratios I’m inclined to believe that he’s for real. However, the Brewers simply must add someone to set him up. Julio Santana certainly can strike em’ out, but his resemblance to Johan fades when you realize he’s a 30 year old journeyman with a career ERA of 5.27. Nor are the Ricky Battilco’s of the world (another journeyman in his mid 30’s) going to get it done. Scott Eyre who recently signed with the Cubs would have been a good fit, but the Brewers still have plenty of time to explore the market. I think the Brewers might be smart to take a look at what the pitching-rich Twins will offer for Lyle Overbay whom the Twins are rumored to be interested in.

3. Patience for the Prince

The 2005 major league season couldn’t have gone off to any sweeter of a start for super-prospect Prince Fielder, who hit a home run in his first day in the big leagues. Prince (or the player formally known as too fat even for Billy Beane) has proven all the skeptics wrong, tearing up triple A in 2005 at a .291/.388/.569 clip. He preformed well in the big leagues as well, hitting .288/.306/.458 in 39 games. There are a lot of concerns about his defense, but the reports I’ve read seem to indicate that while his range is still bad he is improving on whole. Prince has a good chance to be an even better player than his dad, if the Brewers don’t rush him too quickly. I would advise the Brewers to platoon him for a while with an experienced veteran (JT Snow perhaps?) and give him the job full time if he produces.

The Bottom Line:

The Brewers seem to have just the right mix of experienced talent (Carlos Lee, Geoff Jenkins) and young promise (Fielder, Trunbow). The task for the Brewers is to tweak the bullpen just a bit, without giving up players that would upset the chemistry of the team. Overbay looks expendable to me, as long as the Brewers add a veteran to help ease Prince Fielder along. With Carlos Lee continuing to put up excellent numbers, and the second half bounce-back for Geoff Jenkins, the Brewers have some breathing room. If they don’t panic and try to change things too much, the Brewers will challenge for the Wild Card and maybe even the division if the Cards stumble mightily.

Three Pieces: Chicago Cubs

2005-11-16T21:38:00.000-06:00

Coming off a year plagued by injuries to key players, and lifted only by the performance of Derrek Lee (and Aramis Rameriz), the Cubs are as rudderless as they were last offseason, and drastic changes are going to be necessary in order to get them back into contention in the NL Central. What do they need to get back to the postseason?

1. Fire Dusty Baker

The man is insane. I admit it, I loved Captain Toothpick in San Fran, but he's got to go. I've commented many times on the inanity of his lineups, and Darin Baker is a lawsuit waiting to happen. In addition to drawing names from a hat (or rolling a pair of dice) to fill out a lineup card, he's got this habit of riding pitchers, especially hard-throwing starters, into the ground. This would be fine, if he had pitchers who had Tommy Johns every season. Unfortunately he does not have a rotation of Frankensteins, but Kerry Wood, Mark Prior and Carlos Zambrano, and oh, right, 39 year-old Greg Maddux, WHO THREW 225 INNINGS! 13th most in the majors. 13TH! Zambrano was 15th on the list.

Furthermore, he has the horrible tendency to 'believe' in certain players. Players like Neifi Perez. Players like Pedro Feliz. Players like Jerome Williams. Noticing a pattern yet? Just send him to replace Torre and then the Yankees on the field will look as crazy as the front office does.

2. Trust in Nomar

Look, we all know that the Cubs, even if they do by some miracle reach the World Series, they'll manage to lose. If they reach the last day of the season, they're going to lose. So why not stick with Nomar. What else could possibly go wrong with his body? There isn't much left. Believe, in the Disney sense of the word.

After rehabing from the most horrific injury I've ever seen (a "ruptured tendon in his left groin", poor bastard), Nomar bounced back from an awful .157/.228/.176 to .318/.347/.531. Rafael Furcal, whom the Cubs are rumored to be courting hit .284/.348/.429 for the year and Nomar, even with his terrible start AND injury ended the season at .283/.320/.452. Worse OBP, but better slugging. Basically a wash between the two. Furcal is five years younger, but Nomar isn't some slugger who is going to break down next year and his .320/.367/.544 (.911 OPS) career line looks much better than Furcal's .284/.348/.409 (.757 OPS). Acquiring Nomar was a good move and the Cubs need to realize that. This guy is the quintessential 'professional hitter.'. This whole 'better fit' nonsense needs to end now as do the Twins trade rumors. Hasn't Nomar gone through enough? And has any other shortstop, even Jeter, saved a life? (A-Rod doesn't count, as he was a third baseman when he saved the Boston youth from stepping into a truck's path.)

On the trade note, the Cubs let Jody Gerut go mid-season in a trade for Lawton. Career line for 33 year-old Lawton: .267/.368/.418; career line for 27 year-old Gerut: .263/.334/.434. I'd take Gerut, personally.

3. Trade Patterson

And replace him with anyone else. Even Bernie Williams. It's gotten that bad. He hit .215 this season. Two Fifteen. He's had one major league season with an average over .270, 2 with an OBP over .285 and 1 season with a SLG over .455. His SB numbers are okay, but they don't justify a lifetime .252/.293/.414 line. The free agent outfield market is not great, but it affords some options. Damon will be damn expensive, Jacque Jones doesn't hit well enough, neither does Preston Wilson. Encarnacion is worth a look, and if the Cubs could afford his poor defense, Rondell White would prove a huge offensive boost. Patterson could be traded too, in a package deal. He's young enough that a team might want to try to develop him.

There's always the chance that Dusty might push to sign Kenny Lofton, another one of his favorite little buddies.

The Bottom Line:

The Cubs aren't going to win the NL Central, I'll bet my student loan payments on that, but if they stay healthy and improve just a bit, this could be a very dangerous team. They just need to overcome incompetent leadership and a curse set into motion by a farm animal. Still, the boys on the northside will, at least, manage to be loveable losers.

NL ROY Runners Up

2005-11-14T12:26:00.000-06:00

Before I write anything related to the actual column I want to write, I want to say this. I feel that the NL Rookie Of the Year was incredibly deserving. But I do want to highlight the spectacular play of runners up Willy Taveras and Jeff Francoeur.

I've written about Taveras earlier this year. Here's how he finished for the year


   G   AB   R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB    BA   OBP   SLG
+----+---+---+----+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+
 152  592  82  172  13   4   3   29  34  .291  .325  .341
+----+---+---+----+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+
  89  351  49   96  13   3   1   26  33  .274  .338  .336
 152  599  84  164  22   5   2   44  56  .274  .338  .336

The second line is Ricky Henderson in his rookie year, the third is Ricky projected to a 152 game season. Clearly Rickey hit for more power early on, but with Taveras' speed, he'll be able to create a lot of doubles.

Francouer clearly had more impressive power numbers than Taveras.


    G   AB   R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB    BA   OBP   SLG
+----+----+---+----+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+
   70  257  41   77  20  1   14   45   3  .300  .336  .549 
+----+----+---+----+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+
  151  557  97  161  28  4   49  118   1  .289  .370  .618
   70  258  45   75  13  2   23   55   0  .289  .370  .618

The last two lines are for Mark Maguire in his first full season with the A's, and then a line adjusted for the number of games that Francouer played. Now I know that the comparisons I've made here are not perfect analogs and either one of these players might fade into obscurity, but both looked very good this season. I wrote a longer post on Taveras with several other comparisons, and he finished the season as good as he started. Both of these players are going to have an effect on their franchises, and I can't wait to see it.

2005 Cy Young Awards: Tradition Run Amok

2005-11-09T07:29:00.000-06:00

I suppose I shouldn't have expected any better out of these guys. This is the same group of nitwits who picked Derek Jeter to win not one, but two gold gloves he did not deserve. I wish I had become as cynical as Aaron Gleeman, but somehow I had expected more. Rivera would have been at least a plausible choice, but Colon really has proven that when it comes to the Cy Young the Win is still reigns supreme. Granted, this was a weak field, with no starters posting an ERA lower than 2.86. Nevertheless, Santana clearly was the best pitcher in the field with the second best ERA in the AL (2.87), leading the league in strikeouts and an opponent average 45 points lower than Colon.

Even when every other available measure of a pitcher's skill pointed to Santana, the voters managed to give him only three first place votes. I'm temporary residing in the UK, where baseball interest is unfortunately not what it should be. However, I could pick out a hundred Britons at random, and if I provided them with American sports section and asked them to vote for the Cy Young I’m positive that they would arrive at a more logical, equitable and sane consensus than this travesty.

Chris Carpenter, the winner of the National League Cy Young is a bit more qualified, but qualified is a relative term. Carpenter finished with an ERA of 2.83, second in the NL in strikeouts and second in the majors in innings pitched. This is an excellent season by any standard. When the field includes a pitcher who finished with an ERA almost a full run lower than Carpenter and held opponents to below the Mendoza Line (a .183 OBA), its difficult for me to justify giving the award out to anyone else. Of course Roger Clemens lost, since the voters couldn't get past the fact he'd only managed to go 13-8.

Of the three man rotation of Confines writers I am probably the most "traditional" baseball thinker of the bunch. Since I follow a team with perhaps the most successful traditionalist general manager in game, (Terry Ryan) it’s hard not to sometimes extol the virtues of small ball and emphasizing traditional defense and athleticism in player development. However, I still have a brain. It may be news to the Cy Young voters but there are multiple methods of evaluating pitching performance. A win-loss record can tell you something about a team a player pitches for and maybe a little about the makeup of a particular pitcher. It doesn't tell you so much that every other statistic should be thrown out in favor of pitchers with clearly inferior seasons. The voters need to get past the win, and start giving out awards for the right reasons, something they've managed to botch for years. At least this time when Randy Johnson lost, it was because he deserved to.

Three Pieces: Minnesota Twins

2005-11-08T16:11:00.000-06:00

Minnesota Twins find themselves in an unfamiliar position this year. They missed the playoffs for the first time since 2001 and saw the winner of their division go on to win the World Series. In addition to the threat from a powerful Chicago ballclub, they Twins will have to battle with the Indians for the AL Central crown.

1. A new stadium

The Twins have suffered in what has been at times the worst, second worst or third worst stadium in baseball. The revenue structure at the Metrodome is very favorable for the Vikings, so favorable that the Vikings receive large percentages of concessions sales and luxury box receipts from Twins games. The Twins do not have a large cable network to draw revenue from and the Metrodome is likely the ugliest and least interesting ballpark in the majors. None of these things help generate additional revenue or interest in the franchise, either in the public, or from ownership. In the new golden age of the urban ballpark, the Twins need a new stadium, or risk sinking to the level of the Expos for all those years in Olympic, drawing only a few thousand a night. I don't care how it gets done, but I do feel that a small, county based sales tax raise (about half a cent on the dollar) is an entirely fair price to pay. If we want to live in a great city, we have to be willing to pay for it. Given the fact that there are also large areas of St. Paul to put a park in, the Twins have some opportunities that they need to exploit. The problem is that public support for the stadium is less than overwhelming. The Twins need to get into the community over the next few year and build the kind of relationships that make a community value an asset. I think that would be the best way to influence public support and make sure that the community has a voice in the new stadium.

2. A 'Professional' Hitter (or two, or three)

There's a Twins blog named "Warning Track Power" which is perhaps the most accurately titled thing ever. The Twins need power, and they need leadership in the lineup, period. They ranked 29th in team SLG, 21st in OBP, and 28th in OPS.
The only teams lower in OPS were Seattle and Washington. No team with stats like that can compete. The Twins have lacked a significant presence in their lineup for years. Mauer is good, but it will be years before he becomes the kind of force that can carry a lineup the way a Bonds or a Pujols can, and it may not happen at all. It is much more likely that Mauer will need two good, or one great bat to help him out, and the Twins as they are now aren't cutting it. The revolving-door infield has been a joke. Castro (.257/.279/.386), Bartlett (.241/.316/.335), Punto (.239/.301/.335), Rodriguez (.269/.335/.383) and Tiffee (.207/.245/.293) are glorified minor leaguers that should not have seen even a third of the playing time they did this season. Morneau should be able to improve on his abysmal .239/.304/.437, but he won't be enough to elevate the lineup, and doesn't threaten opposing pitchers. The Twins needed to make a move and trade Jacque Jones and his 5 million salary for a much better hitter this past season, and now they'll lose him to free agency without anything in return. They made a great decision with Stewart, and they need to make another move like that. If the Giant's hadn't inked Winn, I would see him as a good fit. But the point here is that this is a move that must be made this year. I know that the Twins would have been a much better team if Hunter had stayed healthy, but when the performance of your team depends on the health of a man who runs full speed into walls, perhaps you need to find ways to protect your team. This need has existed for years, and it is why the Twins have had minimal success in the playoffs.

3. Time for Liriano

This young man is going to do great things for the Twins (and would have for the Giants, if they hadn't given him away), but like any young pitched, he needs time to develop. He's been knocked around in his first few starts, but his K/9 is over 12 and a half. When he's got his head together and learns how to exploit hitters, instead of just trying to blow them away, he'll be a force, but the organization needs to keep the media heat off him, and needs to make a splashy move that will let him stay out of the limelight and develop at his own pace. If they put too much pressure on his psyche, or his arm, he may turn into a never-was, and that would be a crime of monumental proportions.

The Bottom Line:

This Twins have a lot to do, not much to do it with, and have two teams to climb over to reach the pinnacle of the AL Central. But this is a team that knows how to win, sports a Cy Young winner and a Local-Boy-Done-Good who has been waiting for a chance to really shine. Brooks and Aho might disagree with me (although considering the performance of the '05 Twins, they might be happy just to see the Twins get close), but it's nice to see a three-sided race shaping up. With a smart move or two, like the one that brought Stewart from the Jays in '03, the Twins could be a force in the AL again.

Three Pieces: Toronto Blue Jays

2005-11-07T08:27:00.000-06:00

The Blue Jays enter the off-season with the look of a team on the rise. The Jays ownership has pledged to raise payroll from 50 million to 85 million, giving baseball fans North of the Border their first good news since about 1992. How should the Jays use their upcoming cash infusion? Is Canadian baseball really dead? Should Alan Thicke or Michael J Fox take over announcing?

1. Middle-of-the-order Slugger

The Jays offense is competent, but unfortunately for the Jays, competent isn’t going to cut it in the AL East. Vernon Wells has continued to put up some good numbers without anyone noticing, (.269/.320./.463 28 HR 97 RBI) and while Shea Hillenbrand is solid enough as a supporting player in the offense, he is not nearly good enough to protect Wells in the lineup. Alex Rios has shown some promise, but shouldn’t be counted on to carry the club. I’m not going to waste my mind speculating too much about trades, especially since the Jays can’t afford to spare either hitting or pitching (on the Major League level anyway) if they want to compete in the toughest division in baseball. But I think it might worthwhile to take a quick look at some of the bats currently on the market.

Mike Piazza (Mets, C) : He’s old. His skills behind the plate… let’s just say he’s still the Mike Piazza we all know and love. He might be a good short term signing if he’s willing to play DH. However, Jays fans would be well advised to remember that this is not Piazza Circa 1999. He hasn’t hit more than thirty homers since 2002 and his OBP has been on the decline each of the past three years. In summary he’s a good guy to take a flyer on, but only at the right price.

Paul Konerko (White Sox, 1^st Base) : After this postseason the word is that Konerko will be commanding up to 15 million a year on the free agent market. He’s a good bat to have, but I suspect that his numbers are bit inflated due to US Cellular Field (considering he slugs almost 100 points better there). Not worth it, unless the Jays have even more money to spend than I think.

Todd Walker (Cubs, 2^nd Base) : With indications that the Jays want to move Orlando Hudson Walker might be a good offensive boost to the middle infield, but he’s not the answer the Jays are looking for.

Not a promising bunch. Although this is by no means an exhaustive look at the market, it is a representative one. The rest of the free agent crop either play positions the Jays have locked up or seem to be out of their league in terms of money.

2. A Solid Number 2 Starter

All of the online media outlets are a-buzz with the news that free agent pitcher AJ Burnett had a steak dinner with Roy Halladay and former Marlins (now Blue Jays) pitching coach Brad Arnsberg. The Jays seem very intent in adding another ace quality pitcher to the staff. Although the Toronto Staff certainly looks far better with the addition of Burnett, I would warn Blue Jays fans not to get too optimistic about him. The recent track record of inconsistant NL pitchers with great stuff leaves much to be desired (see Clement, Matt; Wright, Jeret). Still, no one better appears to be on the market right now. The bottom line is Burnett might help, but no one should expect him to be the team's savior. The Jays might be better off either looking at the trade market or signing another solid arm along with Burnett (Jerrod Washburn for example).

3. Saving Canadian Baseball

Back in the early 1990’s the Jays were drawing more than four million fans a year. With a competitive Expos team and a World Champion Blue Jays organization baseball looked to be in excellent shape in Canada. The 1994 strike hit the Expos the hardest, but it devastated the Jays as well. The Blue Jays went from being on pace for another year exceeding four million fans to about 2.8 million in 1995. Without a quality product on the field, interest in baseball waned. The Jays did have a modest increase in attendance last year, but they need a playoff appearance to begin to reignite Canadian passion for baseball. The Jays need to produce, and quickly.

The Bottom Line:

As much as I would like to somebody win the AL East aside from the Yankees or Red Sox, I’m not convinced the Jays have enough talent available either from within or from the free agent market to do it. But hey, I thought the White Sox were going to collapse down the stretch.

Silent Vindication

2005-11-03T17:31:00.000-06:00

Banned substances include steroids, steroid precursors, designer steroids, masking agents and diuretics. There will be one unannounced mandatory test of each player during the season. In addition, there will be testing of randomly selected players, with no maximum number. And there will be random testing during the offseason. The penalties for a positive result are, first positive, 10 days; second, 30 days; third, 60 days; fourth, one year, and all without pay.

I've posted this summary of the MLB steroid policy so that no one who read this can mistake the implications it carries. This means:

1) Giambi made his comeback this season with the aid of any banned substances, avoiding an embarrasing (and possibly career ending) demotion to the minors. It was not a spectacular return to form, but it puts him in a good position to improve next year.

2) Barry Bonds was clean this season, which doesn't mean as much since he spent most of it on the DL, but he still performed very well over the last two weeks of the season (.286/.404/.667), and there was no question that he still had his homerun swing and dominating eye (although both were a bit rusty). Many steroids also take months, even up to a year and a half to be totoally out of the body. If you question Bond's skill this season, go back and look at the homerun he hit at RFK. Moreover, his homerun rate projected over 140 games, which may be as much as he's able to play, puts him at 50 for the season. Not too shabby for a man who'll turn 42.

From this point on, I've run out of good things to say about steroids this season. Here's the list, current as of today, of the 12 major league players who've tested positive.

11/2 Matt Lawton, OF Yankees

10/18 Felix Heredia, LHP Mets

10/4 Carlos Almanzar, RHP Rangers

9/7 Michael Morse, SS Mariners

8/2 Ryan Franklin, P Mariners

8/1 Rafael Palmiero, 1B Orioles

6/8 Rafael Betancourt, P Indians

5/2 Juan Rincon, P Twins

4/26 Jamal Strong, OF Mariners

4/20 Agustin Montero, P Rangers

4/11 Jorge Piedra, OF Rockies

4/4 Alex Sanchez, OF Devil Rays

I'll admit that there are a few on the list, Alamnzar, Franklin, and a name or two in April, that I didn't know about until now. But these names make a couple of things very clear:

1) MLB badly needs a list of approved supplements, vitamins, and other treatments that players can use, instead of guessing if their product is on the list. This was the argument Twins pitcher Juan Rincon used (which is entirely believable). Also, this eliminates the supplement argument for a false positive test.

2) Contrary to popular wisdom before the testing regimen was put into place, there are almost as many pitchers on the list as hitters. This has been commented on before, but it is quite possible many of the fireballing relievers we've seen in the last decade were juiced.

3) Baseball's recent retirees and aging sluggers have all been put in an incredibly awkward situation by Rafael Palmiero's hysterics, both before Congress, and after his positive test, which was for Stanozolol, discussed briefly here in a Hardball Times article, and at greater length here. By the way

The only legitimate therapeutic indications for anabolic steroids are:

(a) replacement of male sex steroids in men who have androgen deficiency, for example as a result of loss of both testes

(b) the treatment of certain rare forms of aplastic anaemia which are or may be responsive to anabolic androgens.
(ABPI Data Sheet Compendium, 1993)

(c) the drugs have been used in certain countries to counteract catabolic states, for example after major trauma.

How can anyone who has alligned with Palmiero at any point come out looking as clean as they did before?

4) Did the Devil Rays really need the dubious honor of having the first positive test? This proves that there is no comsmic justice in the baseball universe.

Still, I started this on a positive note, and I'll try to end on one. After all the wonderful stories this year, the Astros and White Sox making it to the World Series, Derrek Lee flirting with .400 and a Tripple Crown, Pujols emergence (from Barry's shadow) at the "best hitter in baseball", the Braves Young Studs, the Nationals making a run at the division their first year in DC (much to the chagrin of Peter Angelos), and, yes Barry returning from injury to see if he could break a few more records, after all these stories, notice that none of them are tainted with steroids, and, for once, we know this to be a certianty.

All that glitters ...

2005-11-02T08:41:00.000-06:00

It's bad enough that the Yankees think they need a new stadium so that they can increase luxury box receipts, but this is truly an abomination unto baseball gods.

He could already get any woman (or man) in New York City. He is (for better or worse) the face of baseball. Did Derek Jeter really need another Gold Glove? Or, more to the point, did he deserve another one (because he sure as shooting didn't deserve the first one)? His range is limited, his arm is adequate, and his only real asset as a fielder is making flashy plays. Sure, he's got hustle, but when Orlando Cabrera has a FP 11 points higher, I think we need to re-investigate who we're giving these things to.

All the others, listed here are reasonable. But to give Jeter a second Gold Glove is to be blinded by his reputation, and the mystique of the Yankees. To be totally honest, I think that A-Rod was more deserving than Jeter, given that it's only his second year at a more demanding position.

I'll have to be satisfied that they didn't try to give one to Bernie Williams or Jason Giambi.

The Black and White Sox

2005-11-01T08:22:00.000-06:00

Living in Minnesota and developing an affinity has undoubtedly colored my view of baseball and, in particular, of the AL Central. The same is true to an even larger degree of fellow bloggers Aho and Brooks, who have lived here all their lives. Our view, all season, was that the White Sox' record was a fluke, that their obscene record in one run games was a sign of extreme vulnerability, and that the stunningly rapid evolution of their pitching staff had to be an anomaly, and one that would eventually have to reconcile itself with reality as we saw it. We thought that 'smart ball' was a dumb idea, that AJ Pierzynski was clubhouse cancer, and that Ozzie Guillen was completely out of his mind.

I still believe the last one.

However, if I'd been less partial, both to my own prejudices about teams and to the opinions of the media, I might have developed a more complete picture of this team. If you look at the moves made by the White Sox, you couldn't blame me for having a negative view. They traded Carlos Lee, who went .303 / .366 / .525 had 99 RBI and 103 scored runs. This season, the Sox only had two regulars who slugged over .500 (Konerko and Dye), and the man they traded for didn't even slug over .350. No, Podsednik's most impressive stat was his stolen bases, 59. Still, it's important to note that all that added speed on the bases scored significantly fewer runs, 80, and Podsednik only drove in 25 runs (albeit from the leadoff spot). Podsednik is about seven million dollars cheaper, and, yes, seven million dollars can buy quite a lot in the MLB labor market (if spent by anyone other than Brian Cashman).

The Sox spent a bit more wisely than the Yankees. They got Politte for 0.8 million, locked up Garland for another year for 2.5, El Duque for 3.5 and Jermaine Dye for 4 million. While this is a few million more than the difference between Podsednik's and Lee's salary, I think it gives a good idea of what a few million can do for a ballclub. The trade for Garcia left them with a large 8 million dollar a year salary to cover, but the release of Magglio Ordonzez (who had a 2005 salary of 7.2 million, and a 2004 salary of 14 million) made it easier to take that on. In a tight closer market, they signed Dustin Hermanson for 2 million. And who could forget Anthony John Pierzynski, at 2.25.

When you add all of this to what the Sox had, you see a solid rotation, and an offense geared towards contact hitting. The rotation had two distinct types of pitchers.

First, Garcia and Hernandez represented the veterans that other clubs had given up for dead. In the Garcia trade, the Sox gave up a young catcher (Miguel Olivo) who hit below the Mendoza line with Seattle, a minor league outfielder better known for his steroid violations than anything he's done on the field (Michael Morse), and Jeremy Reed a "top prospect" who hasn't done much in his first two years, and would have been crowded out of the outfield in Chicago. So while Garcia actually pitched substantially worse than he did in 2004 with the Mariners, (3.20 vs 4.61 ERA) he came over without too much risk, and there are those (myself included) who feel that a veteran presence can help young players blossom. I think the real reason that the Sox like Garcia is his record, 23 and 12 since he's come over. You see a lot of the same trends with Hernandez and Contreras, who've had their best years with other teams and had good records with the White Sox, although Contreras had his best season in 2005 since his debut with the Yankees. Hernandez had a dismal year, with a 5.12 ERA and .275 BAA, but still was 9 and 9. Both made significant

Garland and Buehrle were the real stars of the rotation, combining for 30 wins and nearly 300 strikeouts. This second type I'll call the young stud. Both of there pitchers improved substantially over their career numbers, which is entirely possible for young players to do.

This team was carefully balanced, and it's important to note that the Red, Athletics, even the lowly Devil Rays scored more runs this season. If you take a look at league BAA by team, you see that the Sox are very close to the top (.249), trailing the Indians (.246), Astros (.247) and Athletics at .241 to lead the league. Just a note to all you White Sox fans, fifth on the list at .250; the Cubs. The same four teams are also the tops in .OPS given up. Now the Pythagorean Win-Loss formula predicts a win total of only 92, so their record in one run games (which most analysts of a Sabermetric bent would call 'luck') really does come into play.

I guess my real point at the end of this article is about the true merits and deficits of the White Sox, the true picture, independent of the prejudices of years past. The truth is, AJ didn't poison the club house. The truth is the Yankee castoffs didn't blow out and revert to 6-plus ERAs. The truth is that they scored just enough runs to win without Magglio and Carlos Lee. The truth is they won the World Series, and they clearly were talented (and lucky, and luck always plays a part in championship runs) enough to do so handily. I can't say that I wish them luck next season, but I don't think I'll be rooting against them quite as hard as I used to, at least not until I have to hear about the 'brilliance' of Ozzie Guillen, which is the only real achilies heel of the team.

It's been a wonderful season, and we at the Confines are going to get back into the habit of regular articles, including a running series profiling the dire needs of every team in the majors. And to the fans of the 31 other teams out there ...

There's always next year.

Free Agent Round-Up: October 28

2005-10-28T10:55:00.000-05:00

In a move that may douse the hopes of Southsiders for back-to-back World Series championships, Paul Konerko filled for free agency. Other notable filings are AJ Burnett (FLA), Billy Wagner (PHI), and one of those amazing flying Molinas I've heard so much about, just to name a few.

The Nationals made a few minor signings, the Mets let 'reliever' Danny Graves go, the Rockies made a minor signing, and a total of 62 players filed for free agency. You can find a comprehensive list here.

The biggest news (although in every story about free agency filings, it appears in about the third paragraph) is that the Giants exercised options on five major players, Jason Schmidt, Randy Winn, Ray Durham, Moises Alou and LeTroy Hawkins. If Schmidt stays healthy, he's clearly worth the money, and Alou has the potential to be a bargain at 4 million. It would be a mistake to evaluate Winn on his performance with the Giants after being traded, (a superlative .359/.391/.680) but he is a career .288 hitter, and good discipline and adequate power for a outfielder with decent speed. Durham has hit .286 with the Giants over the last three seasons, and with a bit of pop. Hawkins has been a disaster since he left the Twins, and even though his stats aren't awful, there is the perception that he cannot perform in high pressure situations. I think he's overpaid at 3.5 million, even if it's only a one year commitment.

These decisions mean, very clearly, that the Giants are once again deferring any major rebuilding until Barry is out of the picture. They are going to try to keep their team together as is and win just enough games to take the weak NL West. As I profile the needs of teams in the coming weeks, we'll take a look at whether or not this really gives the Giants what they need to compete.

ESPN: KUBAR (Kruked Up Beyond All Repair)

2005-06-03T09:14:00.000-05:00

It's hard to know when it really started. The new sets for the shows were a step in the wrong direction. It might have been when they made half their ESPN.com columns (from their better writers) subscription only. From what I've read, the trend may be much older, but lately it's found new lows.

One of the biggest recent problems was giving Joe Morgan a regular column. His coloquial, down-home style works quite well when contrasted with John Miller on Sunday Night Baseball, but in print it just doesn't work. His chats have become near legendary on baseball blogging circuts, as has his confusion over who really wrote Moneyball. I won't bother rehashing what has been so well documented, but if you need something more concrete, see this article by Aaron Gleeman.

Sunday Night Baseball itself, which used to be beautifully produced, when a viewer was only subliminally aware that they were watching television, has turned into a spectacle, complete with theme song and gaudy intro. Worst of all, there's now even a segment for a band that ESPN feels it should 'spotlight.' Granted the band does usually say something about baseball, but it's even dumber than what Kruk or Bowa have to say. Add in the constant ESPNHD plugs and you'll know why I've enjoyed MLB.TV so much this season. I've even found a couple of networks that don't even air commercials, giving me a new level of enjoyment for Yankees games on the YES network.

I used to have a level of respect for all the regulars on both SportsCenter and Baseball Tonight. That is simply no longer the case. While ESPN used to balance between entertainment and journalism, they seemed to have slipped over the edge and become nothing more than entertainers. Stuart Scott has simply gotten out of hand. Steven A Smith is no more than thirty seconds from killing someone on air every time he speaks. The one and only thing Larry Bowa could do to become even mildly interesting (since he'll never be informative) is get angry, and he hasn't done it once that I've seen. Come on Larry, toss a chair at the Kruker! Pedro Gomez must feel like he was sent to the Bahamas and then got caught in a three-month long freak snowstorm, which is fine with me. In football season we have to put up with the insufferable Sean Salisbury. Even the once dependable Tim Kurkjian has begun to slip. In his most recent ESPN.com article on how Derek Jeter is "the face of baseball," he wrote the following:

Jeter wants none of the attention, but it comes because of the way he plays. Three of the most memorable plays of this decade belong to Jeter, and all because of his hustle. There was the famous backhanded flip to the plate in Game 3 of the 2001 ALDS against the A's. There was the running catch, and subsequent bloody tumble into the stands, on July 1 last year against the Red Sox. And this year, on May 25, there was the diving catch he made – jumping over rookie second baseman Robinson Cano, a play filled with symbolism – in shallow center field.

Now I might personally disagree with his assessment of Jeter, but that's not what I'm taking issue with. Two of the plays that Kurkjian mentioned, the tag of Giambi and the dive into the seats, may be some of the more memorable, but his catch over Cano will be forgotten by the end of the season, and probably before then as the Yankees continue to sink. Again, this is an article about entertainment and not about sports. With all the compelling stories, all the surprising statistics this year (even those around those damn Yankees) why aren't we talking about the sport itself? If ESPN is trying to help rehabilitate the image of the MLB after the steriod controversy, then instead of talking about the image, they should be actively doing something to improve it, a move that is entirely in their own economic interest as well. You can't make the Jeter-Cano catch into a historical moment, no matter how hard you try, because it's not. But you can talk about everything that's actually going on with the Yankees, instead of writing Jeter a nice little promo. With what Lee is doing, this article is about the wrong Der(r)ek.

It seems like all the real analysis has been relegated to Peter Gammons, with occasional help from the unlikely source of Harold Reynolds, who was calmed down in recent years and provides a very good ex-player's perspective on the game. Gammons has seemed quieter as of late and seems almost dejected on air at times. I think this has less to do with him getting older, less to do with the tarnishing of baseball with steroids, and more to do with the people who have begun to surround him. I won't even start in on Kruk himself. In order to really disect Kruk, I'll need an entire article (and an XXL discetion table). He's that bad. Still, Kruk is only a symptom of the disease that ESPN seems to have caught. You would think after ESPN created a reality show to find the best anchor possible, in which they were judged on accuracy and analysis as much as character and poise, that they might apply the same rules in house. I suppose the problem is that they can't even see anything in the studio anymore other than the neon red and blue. I'll get to Kruk next week, hopefully with some choice quotes from the last two years. Until then, when you turn to ESPN, just use the mute button.

Reality Check :: Return of the King?

2005-05-17T14:12:00.000-05:00

Gagne had a rocky start to his season and if his numbers were to stay at this level for the rest of the season (which they won't) his ERA would be an astronomical 18.00. However, his strikeouts per nine would be even higher, 27. The current record, set by Gagne in 2003 is a hair less than fifteen. Even though I am a Giant fan from wayback, it's nice to see that some of the players in the West (both AL and NL) are returning from the DL and ready to help their teams. Ginter was back for the A's, and was on Sports Center's top plays this morning, though he was hitless.

And now, I turn my full attention to the (inexplicably) third place Dodgers. I say inexplicable not because of their blistering start to the season, but because they have simply outplayed the Diamondbacks in absolute terms. The Padres have come on strong, though, and are a different story altogether. While the Dodgers are 22nd in ERA, they are sixth in runs scored, behind the Cardinals. The real problem for the Dodgers has been that their 4.06 ERA in April has jumped up to 5.43 for May.

Choi still can't touch lefties (.222/.417/.333), but with and OBP over .400, it's no wonder why he keeps getting into the lineup, especially on a team run by a sabermetric devotee like DePodesta. Ricky Ledee (315/.396/.467) and Jason Phillips (.290/.328/.411) are hitting well in limited playing time as well, Kent and Bradley have OPS' over .920, and Mr. Injury Risk himself has made it into 35 games with a .254/.385/.421 line to show for it. Kent and Drew have cooled in May so far, with averages in the low .200s. I know that batting average is considered stata non grata but when batters are hitting .212 and .244, it provides meaningful information. Futhermore, in May in 12 starts, Lowe, Penny, Erickson and Perez are 2-8 with an ERA of 5.46. Jeff Weaver (2-0, 3.54 ERA) has been the bright spot in the rotation. These difficulties have put the seemingly invincible Ddogers behind two other teams in the NL West.

Two weeks ago I used a formula derived by Bill James to attempt to isolate luck and remove it from the measure of a team. I'm going to provide a frame of reference before we look at the NL West. For 2004, I've taken the divisional champs, the wild card winners and teams that were in the running the last week of the season for a playoff spot, listed their Runs Scored (RS), Runs Allowed (RA), their winning percentage for the year (WP), their record (W-L), their winning percentage predicted by their RS and RA (PWP), and then their records with that WP (PW-L). I've also listed the Diamondbacks.


           RS   RA    WP    W-L   PWP  PW-L   
----------------------------------------------
Yankees    897  808  .623 101-61 .552  89-73
Twins      780  715  .568  92-70 .543  88-74
Angels     836  734  .568  92-70 .564  91-71
Red Sox    949  786  .605  98-64 .593  96-66
Athletics  793  742  .562  91-71 .533  86-76

Braves     803  688  .593  96-66 .578  94-68
Cardinals  855  659  .648 105-57 .627 102-60
Dodgers    761  684  .574  93-69 .553  90-72
Astros     803  698  .568  92-70 .570  92-70
Giants     850  770  .574  91-71 .549  89-73

D'backs    615  899  .315 51-111 .319 52-110

Some teams overachieved by quite a few wins, most notably the A's and Yankees. I checked the numbers three times for the Yankees; they did indeed outperform their predicted number of wins by 12. None of these teams picked up wins, which is to be expected. Few winning teams get unlucky, because luck is a good part of the reason they win. If we extend this measure to the rest of the league, there is only one major change


           RS   RA    WP    W-L   PWP  PW-L   
----------------------------------------------
Cubs       789  655  .549  89-73 .585  95-67

That's right, sports fans, the Cubs would have made the playoffs in front of the Astros. The point of all this information is to show that while pythagorean wins occasionally incorrectly predict how one good team will finish compared to another good team, it will always predict how a good team will fare against a poor team. I've gone though all this trouble to set up the NL West race.


           RS   RA    WP    W-L   PWP  PW-L   
---------------------------------------------
D'backs    173  193  .590  23-16 .446  17-22
Padres     182  171  .590  23-16 .531  21-18
Dodgers    190  184  .553  21-17 .516  20-18
Giants     170  190  .486  18-19 .445  16-21
Rockies    174  212  .286  10-25 .402  14-21

This is a small sample size, but even in the month of May when they've 'overtaken' the Dodgers, they still have scored less runs then they allowed, and anyone who has the most basic understanding of the game knows that scoring less runs than your opponents is a bad thing. The Giants have virtually identical runs scored and allowed numbers and are four games back. So with all due respect to Tim Kurkjian and Eric Neel the Diamondbacks are not a worst-to-first scenario, and aren't even a good team. If they make it to .500 this year, they need to view that as a monumental accomplishment, because improving by thirty wins is. But if they pin their hopes on winning the West, come September they are going to be sorely dissapointed. The Dodgers are scuffling right now, and once they pull their pitching back together (a rotation that I have infintely more confidence in than in Arizona's) and get Gagne pouring blinding strikes across the plate in the ninth, they will be leading the division. Their lineup is slumping a bit, but they should bounce back, especially with a guy like Kent in the mix. The Padres will be close, and if their young starters stay strong all season the could unseat the Dodgers. It's an outside shot, but the Giants could be, could be in the race if Bonds comes back at a hundred percent. Michael Tucker is hitting .213/.323/.363. For those of you who don't remember, last year Bonds was .362/.609/.812, which indicates that he was on base almost twice as often as Tucker, and Bonds would have legitimate protection from Alou, something he has needed since Jeff Kent left for Houston.

Even with all of that, this is LA's race to lose. The Giants are old and lack real power without Bonds. The Padres are still trying to figure out how to play in PETCO, and how to fit together as a team. The Rockies are a joke, and unless they magically improve their hitting or pitching, the Diamondbacks will drop in the standings.

Remember readers, statistics only lie to you if you let them. We'll give the Beane Boys and the DePodesta Dodgers a week or so before we look in on them again in the next exciting installment of ... Reality Check.

New Blood :: Willy Taveras

2005-05-15T11:40:00.000-05:00

Last week the Giants were in Houston for a three game set, and thanks to MLB TV I was able to watch parts of all three. It was nice to get a chance to see my old hometown team, even if I had to listen to the Houston broadcast crew. I saw all of the Thursday game and the most interesting thing I saw wasn't the adequate start from Hennessey, or the loss from Petite. Willy Taveras came up in the third with one out. I hadn't really heard much about Taveras, although I knew that the Astros were using him in their starting lineup. He bunted to the left side of the infield, Hennessey fielded the ball cleanly and threw in what I thought would be more than enough time to get him at first. Taveras beat the throw by at least a half step. A few pitches into Morgan Ensberg's at bat, Taveras took off for second. Metheney is a good fielding catcher (35% CS for his career) and I thought there would be a good chance to get Taveras. I was wrong, as he was in with time to spare. The Ensberg at bat wore on, and as Ensberg took ball four, Taveras took off for third. Again, Taveras was clearly in before the throw. Hennessy pitched out of the inning without surrendering a run, but I realized that Taveras created a first and third one out scenario base solely on his speed. Watching him, it was clear he is blindingly fast, and the impotant thing to realize about his bunt single is that Taveras is right handed, which costs him two steps. The play at first would have been laughable if he was a lefty.

I was curious to compare Willy's first major league season to a few other well known speedsters. The first two lines are for Ricky Henderson, in his rookie year and the year he was 23, the same age as Taveras. Lou Brock at 23 in his first full season is next, then Joe Morgan's first full season and his season at age 23, and finally, Taveras' projected numbers for the year.


       G    AB     R   H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG   
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
R('79) 89   351   49   96  13  3   1   26  33 11  34  39  .274  .338  .336  
R('82) 149  536  119  143  24  4  10   51 130 42 116  94  .267  .398  .382
B('62) 123  434   73  114  24  7   9   35  16  7  35  96  .263  .319  .412
M('65) 157  601  100  163  22 12  14   40  20  9  97  77  .271  .373  .418
M('67) 133  494   73  136  27 11   6   42  29  5  81  51  .275  .378  .411
T('05) 162  590   90  149   9  9   9   41  59  9  45 122  .252  .313  .344

So while Taveras' numbers aren't mindblowing, they match up fairly well with some of the best basestealers / early-in-the-order hitters of the modern era, and if hitting is indeed contagious, then Taveras is playing on a team that is dragging him down. The Astros are hitting .244, 26th in the majors. The only disturbing stat is that his strikeouts are so high. His minor league numbers also show increases at each level. These may be due to adjustment, and they might be signs of what is to come for this young man. Only time will tell, but for the time being, he is entertaining to watch, and may prove to be a player of note in a few years. Keep your eye on this kid.

Reality Check :: No Joy in Oakland

2005-05-13T08:06:00.000-05:00

The A's have continued their dismal hitting, with an ice cold .235 BA and .338 SLG. Worst of all, they're hitting .210 with runners in scoring position, and slugging .265. Like I said last time, these dismal numbers have nowhere to go but up, although I expected that an improvement wouldn't take so long. Injecting Swisher back into the lineup should also help (or at a bare minimum, could hardly make things worse). The Hardball Times recently brought me a ray of sunshine, in the form of Projected OPS(PrOPS). The idea is to eliminate luck in an evaluation of a player's hitting. With that said, here are the numbers for the A's


                    OPS         PrOPS       PrOPS+      PrOPS%      PA
Bobby Kielty        0.724       0.844       -0.120      -16.56%     69
Keith Ginter        0.554       0.842       -0.288      -51.96%     52
Eric Byrnes         0.633       0.803       -0.170      -26.82%     86
Erubiel Durazo      0.734       0.799       -0.065      -8.88%      121
Mark Kotsay         0.755       0.795       -0.040      -5.27%      137
Charles Thomas      0.350       0.759       -0.409      -116.80%    39
Jason Kendall       0.573       0.754       -0.180      -31.48%     125
Scott Hatteberg     0.694       0.752       -0.059      -8.46%      123
Marco Scutaro       0.722       0.744       -0.021      -2.97%      106
Nick Swisher        0.646       0.739       -0.094      -14.52%     84
Mark Ellis          0.684       0.702       -0.018      -2.57%      87
Eric Chavez         0.553       0.691       -0.138      -25.01%     136
Adam Melhuse        0.250       0.556       -0.306      -122.21%    12

(for some reason Bobby Crosby wasn't included)

It's tough to know exactly what to make of this stat, and I intend to contact the author for the full PrOPS (I love that acronym) formula , but all those negative numbers mean that all the A's are getting unlucky at the plate, which, of course, bodes well for a comeback. Keep in mind too that if the A's had held both leads against the Red Sox this weekend, they would be 16-18 and only three back of the Angels. Getting Calero back from the DL should help with these late game collapses. Remember, one of the reasons that Beane traded the people he did was to reinforce the bullpen that was so shaky last year. Another very impotant point I would make is that Barry Zito may be starting to return to form, or at least may be working his way back to above average. He was electric against the Yankees last Friday and missed out on the win due to bad defense. Until the eighth inning he'd only given up one run and his curveball was moving enough to warp the space-time continuum. Billy Beane and Ken Macha need to start reading this blog if they want Zito to turn around; throw him seven and put him on the shelf. A few solid wins could put him back on track. But, I must admit, if I'm still writing like this in two weeks, I might just have to declare this season what it really is, a rebuilding year.

Lollygaggers!

2005-05-12T07:36:00.000-05:00

Here's the thing. For the longest time I've wanted to like the Mets, not wanting my contempt for the Yankees to color the whole city of New York. The problem is that for me to like a team, I have to respect them, and the Mets prove year after year all the reasons I shouldn't. The monstrously large contract to Beltran; fine, I'll live with that, he's a good player. Four years to Pedro Martinez; why not, after he throws out his arm you can make him wear the Mr. Met costume. But yesterday's game against the Cubs showed me exactly why I look at the Mets as a traveling circus more than I do a baseball team. Everyone focused on Dempster blowing the save and the walkoff homerun by Derrek Lee, but what interested me most was how the Cubs scored their first three runs.

In the bottom of the second, Jerry Hairston Jr. led off the inning. Victor Zambrano had him in a two strike count when he proceeded to drill Hairston between the numbers with a breaking pitch. No one was worried, because next, in the eight hole was Henry Blanco, or, as we here in Minnesota called him, Henry "The Rally Killer" Blanco. The Confines staff suspects that he generates more than one out per plate appearance, but we still need to go over the data. Blanco hit a low, weak popup that would have been caught by most little league teams under normal weather conditions, and by most major league teams, even with the gusty weather at Wrigley yesterday. Hairston ran the bases brilliantly, giving himself enough time to get back to first if he had to, but was closer to second because he knew what I knew; these are the Mets. The ball dropped in between Beltran and Kaz Matsui and was scored a single.

Now with runners at first and second with the pitcher coming up so early in the game, most teams would charge the bunt, take the out and get on with the inning. Zambrano allowed himself to get so worked up that he'd pitched Prior to a 2-2 count. Then he made an even bigger mistake: a balk. One would now think that Zambrano would go after Prior for the strikeout, or even a groundball to get an out. Zambrano's 2-2 pitch was so far off the plate, even the stellar defense of Mike Piazza could stop it. Hairston scored from third, Blanco moved to third, and Zambrano walked Prior on the next pitch. Patterson was up next and slapped a grounder to Mientkiewicz (who will henceforth be known as "The Doug") who short-hopped a thrwo back to Piazza after stepping on first. The low throw, combined with Piazza flopping backwards like a fish out of water, looking for the ball in front of him, allowed Blanco (a catcher to score from first). Neifi Perez then came up and ripped a ball up the middle that rolled halfway into right center for a single. Prior scored from second on the play.

So the Cubs scored three runs on: a HBP, a 1B (that should have been a team E), a balk,a WP (to the starting pitcher), a BB (also to the starting pitcher), a G3 (and another team E) and a 1B (with a throw so weak that the pitcher scored from second). Two singles, a hit batsman, a walk, a balk, a wild pitch and a groundout. This inning illustrates so clearly why I cannot respect the Mets. If Willie Randolph is any kind of manager, I know exactly what he said in the locker room after the game.

You guys... you lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. Do you know what that makes you? Larry?
Lollgaggers!
Lollygaggers.

The All-Bust Team

2005-05-10T22:13:00.000-05:00

Righty said to me the other night, “If I had a 200 million dollar payroll I wouldn’t just get one team to the World Series, I’d get two.” Fair enough. He’s a very smart guy, but most people could assemble a team that would at least contend for a title with that kind of money. It takes true skill to not only put 100 million dollars (100,971,429 to be exact) on the field and win, but you can also create a team that would run away with the worst record in the league based on their stats.

The following nine players earned their way on to the All-Bust team:

C Jason Kendall, OAK at 10,571,429
30 G, 12 R, 0 HR, 11 RBI, 13 BB, 12 SO, 1 SB, .310 OBP, .254 SLG, .219 AVG

1B Jason Giambi, NYY at 13,428,571
27 G, 10 R, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 18 BB, 29 SO, 0 SB, .386 OBP, .325 SLG, .195 AVG

2B Brett Boone, SEA at 9,000,000
32 G, 12 R, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 8 BB, 21 SO, 2 SB, .282 OBP, .339 SLG, .231 AVG

SS Edgar Renteria, BOS at 8,000,000
30 G, 16 R, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 10 BB, 16 SO, 2 SB, .299 OBP, .342 SLG, .239 AVG

3B Adrian Beltre, SEA at 11,400,000
33 G, 17 R, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 5 BB, 21 SO, 0 SB, .273 OBP, .356 SLG, .242 AVG

OF Preston Wilson, COL at 12,500,000
21 G, 12 R, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 5 BB, 18 SO, 2 SB, .276 OBP, .425 SLG, .225 AVG

OF Hideki Matsui, NYY at 8,000,000
34 G, 15 R, 3 HR, 23 RBI, 17 BB, 23 SO, 0 SB, .315 OBP, .372 SLG, .233 AVG

OF Bernie Williams, NYY at 12,357,143
29 G, 9 R, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 11 BB, 15 SO, 1 SB, .308 OBP, .295 SLG, .238 AVG

SP Kevin Brown, NYY at 15,714,286
1-4, 6.39 ERA, 31 IP, 46 H, 22 ER, 2 HR, 5 BB, 18 SO

And four are Yankees. It reminded me of this article from the Hardball Times, talking about the future of baseball after the Steinbrenner Era. Not a good sign for the Bronx Bombers, but a good one for baseball.

So it's root, root, root for the home team (at Tropicana)

2005-05-06T07:10:00.000-05:00

Most of the loyal readers of the Confines know that while we are named for the ballpark on the North side of Chicago, we are actually located in the greater metropolitan area for Minneapolis, and we are all Twins fans. My affection for them is less intense than both Brooks and Aho, who are lifelong Minnesotans. Bearing that in mind, I know that my next statement may draw their criticism; I am desperately hoping that the Twins lose their next series, and even hoping they get swept.

There's only one reason I would wish for such a thing, if the Twins lose this weekend, then the Devil Rays win, and if the Rays win and the Yankees drop two games to the A's, then the Yankees would be in sole possession of last place in the AL East. Think about that. Think of the vindication, the satisfaction, the pure joy that every Yankees hater has waited so long for. My Yankees hatred didn't come to fruition until Game 3 of the 2001 ALDS when Derek jeter made the most improbable play I've ever seen, snapping up a wayward throw to the plate at a full run and flipping over to Posada to tag out Jeremy Giambi at the plate. I've waited for this moment since then. Revenge, as they say, is a dish best served cold.

I've got my finrgers crossed for this one, so, to the Boys in Oakland, give 'em hell, and to the dear hometown Twins, just take these next few off. The White Sox will implode eventually, and the Twins can handle a couple of losses at this point. They might even be as happy as I would be to see the Yankees in last.

Snakes, why did it have to be snakes?

2005-05-02T12:58:00.000-05:00

Last year, through the month of April, the Diamondbacks were 9 and 13 and well on their way to a dismal 111 loss season. This season, after the third day of May, Arizona is 15 and 11, and has at one point in the season actually had the division lead. How did a team that said goodbye to Randy Johnson last year turn themselves from a laughingstock to a contender?

Partly, they've used the New Detroit Tiger theory. This was also recently employed to a lesser extent in Seattle and in New York in the NL. This, simply, is to overpay for (mediocre, in some cases) talent. Even though the Diamondbacks have proved themselves to be a franchise that values winning, they don't have the (healthy) star slugger that powers a lineup (and draws fans). The ridiculous contracts are ridiculous by design. Ownership wanted to pay Ortiz, Glauss, Vazquez and Green far more than they would see elsewhere so that they could lock them in and field a team that might hit .500. The Mets and Mariners could sign better players for the payroll that went to those four players (almost 47 million dollars, take your pick, Beltre, Vazquez or Beltran, all between 11 and 12 for this year) so their strategy looks a bit different.

Now to these new D'backs. Vazquez has been a bust, with and ERA over 5 (but he does have a record of 3 and 2). Ortiz has been "Old-slow-and-steady" with a ERA around 3.5. Green and Glauss have been hitting in the low .270s and Glauss has had some power. Certainly adding Green and Glauss (if they don't get hurt) is a needed power infusion for the lineup, but if everyone in the NL West was healthy, this is probably the least dangerous offense, with the possible exception of the Padres, or the Rockies away from Coors. The staff is, at best, margnially improved. All due respect to Johan Santana (but not to Clemens, who got damn lucky that the Cy Young voters don't know any math more complicated than addition, subtraction, division and multiplication), but Johnson was the best pitcher last year. Somehow everyone overlooked that he threw one of only 17 perfect games ever pitched. He dominated every statistical category but wins. I know that his trade set up the trade for Green, but I think this is a much better team with Johnson and Ortiz as the starting two. While I don't fault the Diamondbacks for trying to get younger, they could have tried to get someone better than Vazquez in return.

Halsey (2-0, 3.21) and Webb (3-0, 3.24) have been the bright spots in the rotation thus far, both young and relatively unknown. Luis Gonzalez has started to get back to his old form and is hitting .298/.376/.479 so far. These numbers don't look great, but I'm sure that Gonzo sees them as an improvement over 2004 when he went .259/.373/.493 in only 105 games. The most dominant player on the team has been Lyon, who has ten saves in eleven chances.

This is a team that is, even with the loss of Johnson, better than they were last year. That having been said, this appears to be a team that has been very lucky. So far the Diamondbacks have scored only 111 runs so far, and have given up 121. Even a glance at these numbers would suggest that the D'backs have been getting fortunate breaks.

Just a little chart for you here

Team	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Record
Diamondbacks	111	121	15-11
Dodgers	130	106	16-9
Twins	114	95	15-9
Braves	100	79	15-10
Cubs	122	116	12-12

The Dodgers, Twins and Braves are there to illustrate the RS (runs scored) and RA (runs allowed) of teams with similar records, and the Cubs are there to show that teams with worse records have better ratios.

There's a measure known as Pythagorean Win-Loss Records, which is caculated by RS^2 / RA^2 + RS^2 and is designed to measure how good a team is excluding luck.

Here are the predicted winning percentages for those last teams, and the record they would have at this point in the season

Team	EXP W%	EXP Record	Dif
Diamondbacks	.457	12-14	-3
Dodgers	.601	15-10	-1
Twins	.595	14-10	-1
Braves	.646	16-9	+1
Cubs	.525	13-11	+1

Why are the Diamond backs even close, then? Well, the Dodgers have seen more streaking lately than a college campus during pledge week, the Padres are hurt and still adjusting to Petco, and the most dangerous man in baseball is still rehabbing his knee. Expect the Diamondback to fade into the desert night, unless they start playing better. You can only outrun the inevitable for so long.

Reality Check :: Silver Lining

2005-04-26T07:43:00.000-05:00

This is the begining of what will be a fixture here on the Confines. For the last few seasons, various figures in the baseball world have launched a campaign to convince the world that Billy Beane and his sabermetrics are ruining the game of baseball. Paul De Podesta has come under the same attacks (although oddly enough, not Theo Epstein. I guess if you win all is forgiven) for the moves he's made with the Dodgers. The purpose of this column is to look, honestly, at the record, at the statistics, and at the payroll, to see if these men are indeed crazy, or if they are crazy like foxes.

From time to time I may invite the other Confines writers to join in this series. I am by far the most sabermetric-minded of the group. Brooks walks the line between traditional wisdom and the 'new baseball math', and Aho is firmly of the old guard, though he does keep up with the newer stats.

So, without further ado, the first edition of ... Reality Check.

The Oakland Athletics have had a disappointing begining to their season, last in their division at 9 and 11. Even worse, the A's have a team batting average of .229, dead last in the majors and haven't scored in the last 22 innings. There is no point in talking about the Dodgers right now, as there is nothing to critique or quantify. I don't think they are a team that is good enough to keep up this pace all season, which would get them 110 wins. 100, however, is not out of the question.

The A's have signs for encouragement, though. They are sixth for ERA (3.65) thus far and if the offense pulls it together, they should be able to make a run at winning their division in what is a rebuilding year. Even if you hate the A's (which I find personally hard to imagine, but to each their own) you can't believe that Chavez won't improve on his .171/.256/.276 ([BA/OBP/SLG] career .274/.352/.497), that Jason Kendall wont improve on .233/.300/.274 (career .305/.386/.415). Durazo .203/.286/.275 (career .282/.383/.489) and Byrnes .182/.250/.364 (career .268/.333/.457) will also move back towards normal as the season goes on, and Crosby is on the DL. When all of this is taken into account and the A's find themselves only three off the division lead , they've got every reason to be optimistic.

The pitching staff has carried this ball club so far, with 7 pitchers with sub-2.10 ERAs and 6 with ERAs of 1.75 or below. These 7 account for nearly 82 innings of the 175 thrown this year. They also have nearly 40 innings from pitchers with ERAs less than 1. The bright spots are obviously Joe Blanton and Rich Harden. Harden has the lowest ERA in the AL (like Clemens, only one ER on the season), and his K/9 is 9.3. He has stepped up in a big way from last year. Blanton threw a fantastic game on Sunday Night Baseball this week. He made one bad pitch to Steve Finley in the seventh and lost because of it. Finley jumped on it and sent it flying into the right-centerfield seats.

Blanton's line for the game:
8.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO.
For the year:
25.2 IP, 18 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 6 BB, 7 SO.

The important thing to note about Blanton is his experience, or lack thereof. Last year he threw eight innings in the majors. Eight. None of those were in starts, and he's shutting down the Angel's lineup four starts into the season. Just ignore his 0-2 record, because it doesn't mean a damn thing. This guy could be very, very good.

Zito has proved himself an enigma this season, once again. If you take out his horrible start against the Devil Rays, his ERA is 4.68, which is not great, but respectable. He's also had two good starts that have been marred by late declines, both of which have come against very good lineups, the Angels on the 15th and the white hot White Sox yesterday. Against Anaheim he threw eight strong innings, only surrendering two runs in the seventh. Last night against the Sox, Zito threw six scoreless, but gave up four in the seventh. In both starts he threw just over 115 pitches.The splits from ESPN's stat page paint a clear picture of what is happening. Zito is tiring in the later innings and pressing to make pitches. In the first inning, batters are hitting .167 off him. Innings one through three, .276; innings four through six, .196. The problem comes in the seventh, eighth and ninth, when he's being hit at a .467 clip. It's is even more obvious looking at average by pitch counts. From 76 to 90, batters are only hitting .143, but from 91 to 105 they're hitting .357. Slugging also jumps from .143 to .429. With the strength the A's have in the bullpen, if I was managing I'd keep Zito on a short leash and pull him before he got into the mid 90s for pitch counts. Working the bullpen for an extra inning every fourth or fifth day is certianly worth the wins, and worth getting Zito's confidence back up. I already mentioned Crosby on the DL, but A's bullpen staple Chad Bradford could be back as soon as mid-June to help as well. The Angels should fear this team, because for as badly as they're playing, they're still in the thick of things, and they are very, very likely to improve.

In a few weeks, we'll check back on the boys in green and yellow, as well as the boys in blue. There's not much to say about the Dodgers right now, except that Hee Seop Choi is hiting (a predictable) .205, but with Kent and Bradley over .350, it doesn't really matter. Just remember, baseball fans, the three most important things in statistics are sample size, sample size, and sample size.

Light at the End of the Tunnel

2005-04-24T01:46:00.000-05:00

Many of you from outside the state might wonder why the Twins still play indoors in an age when so many clubs have built new facilities. Although the story of why is complex, the answer is really fairly simple: Carl Pohlad. The Twins owner had a friendly Governor in during the Arne Carlson administration, but he turned public opinion against him by pretending to consider moving the team to North Carolina. The public thereafter has remained quite skeptical of helping out an owner who is perhaps the most unpopular man in the state.

However, it may not matter.

This is from the Star-Tribune:

Twins, Hennepin have stadium deal

With a new promise of $125 million from Minnesota Twins owner Carl Pohlad in hand, Hennepin County will seek state permission to increase the local sales tax for a Warehouse District ballpark in downtown Minneapolis.

Under the terms of the plan to be unveiled at a Metrodome press conference Monday, the Twins and the county would build a $360 million, 42,000-seat open-air stadium. The site is near the confluence of Interstate Hwy. 394, the end of the Hiawatha Light Rail line and the proposed Northstar commuter rail in downtown Minneapolis.

The total cost of the ballpark project is projected to be $478 million, including bonding costs, site preparation and surrounding infrastructure, such as road and pedestrian improvements. No state money would be required.

The team, which has been seeking a new ballpark for a decade, would reap revenues from concessions, naming rights and luxury suites.

"It's simple. It's straightforward. You know exactly what you're voting on," said Jerry Bell, Pohlad's longtime point man on stadium matters.

One group that probably won't be voting on the tax -- which would amount to three cents on every $20 in purchases -- is Hennepin County residents: County and team officials said that requiring a public referendum would kill the deal.

St. Paul voters killed a proposed ballpark plan in 1999, and polls have shown scant support for public funding of stadiums.

The proposed ballpark wouldn't include a roof, but the Twins still favor one.

The team will encourage the state to help cover that cost, projected to be at least $100 million.

Top legislative leaders said on Saturday they will consider the proposal after this session's major budget bills are complete, but the plan already has detractors. Gov. Tim Pawlenty declined to comment.

The Hennepin County Board is expected to endorse the plan Tuesday.

"It's important to have a vital downtown," Hennepin County Commissioner Mike Opat said of the ballpark plan. "The team is a state asset, and we can't forget that."

The proposed 0.15 percent increase in the general sales tax is projected to raise $28 million a year and underwrite $353 million in county debt. County officials involved in drafting the proposal plan to issue 30-year bonds, but they predict the tax would raise enough money to pay off the bonds more quickly.

In Denver, 20-year bonds issued to build Coors Field for the Colorado Rockies were covered by a 0.10 percent sales tax and were paid off in less than 10 years.

The use of the sales tax -- as opposed to user fees -- allows the county to issue tax-exempt bonds, which carry lower interest rates than taxable bonds. The sales tax also is a stable and predictable funding source that would grow along with the local economy.

Opat said the goal was to "keep the public's involvement as reasonable as possible, and I think this deal does that."

Pohlad, known as a steely negotiator, sent a letter to the county on Friday saying he would pay $40 million up front with an additional $85 million to follow before the ballpark would open in 2009.

If the Legislature approves, the deal would go back to the County Board, which would then vote on whether to increase the tax.

Capitol reaction

Senate Majority Leader Dean Johnson, DFL-Willmar, and House Speaker Steve Sviggum, R-Kenyon, both said on Saturday that they would support the proposal.

"This is a very workable plan because it does not require any state general fund money," Johnson said. "Three cents on $20 falls out of most people's pockets before breakfast."
Sviggum called it a "reasonable" plan. "Obviously, it's a significant commitment of the Twins owner," he said.

But both also warned that they would not consider a stadium proposal until after the budget bills for health care, education and transportation were done. That's an important caveat because in recent years the Legislature has had major trouble putting together a budget.

I'm inclined to agree with Majority Leader Johnson. A three cent sales tax on every twenty dollars of goods sold is a small price to pay for the revenue which a new stadium would bring to the county. Minneapolis is one of America's best mid-sized cities in terms of the arts, entertainment, and has managed to stay economically vibrant. It has been hampered by the lack of a decent pro sports facility. I hope that I can see the day when Tori Hunter makes an astonishing play at the wall, on grass. I hope I can see Morneau put one in the seats, seats which aren't folded up from a football game. However, a few more political battles need to be fought. Although I don't want to speak for Righty Grove, I imagine he'll have something to say about the politics of it from his birds eye view in St Paul.

Bad Blood in the Central

2005-04-22T21:38:00.000-05:00

Just when the White Sox make you respect them, just when they've gained some semblance of character, they go and do something like this that reminds you of the attack on the umpire, of the drunken fans, of why it seems so appropriate that AJ Pierzynski is playing there.

The quotes in the Chicago Sun Times article read like so --

"He never was my friend because I don't know him," Guillen said. "If he thinks what I said hurt him, I don't give a [bleep]. I didn't come here to make friends, I came here to win games. I've got a lot of friends. If Magglio doesn't want to be my friend, I'm not going to lose sleep at night."

Guillen only was warming up, though. He saved his best for last, launching into an expletive-laced torrent of insults.

"He's a piece of [bleep]," Guillen said. "He's another Venezuelan [bleep]. [Bleep] him. He thinks he's got an enemy? No, he's got a big one. He knows I can [bleep] him over in a lot of different ways.

"He better shut the [bleep] up and just play for the Detroit Tigers. Why do I have to go over and even apologize to him? Who the [bleep] is Magglio Ordonez? What did he ever do for me? He didn't do [bleep] for me. But he said I'm his enemy -- he knows me. Tell him he knows me, and he can take it how he wants to take it.

"Did he play good for me? Yes, he did. Did he play hard for me? Yes, he did. He might like me. He might be sensitive of me. He might be jealous of me, I don't know why. But saying I'm his enemy, he hates me, I could care less what that [bleep] thinks. I don't give a [bleep] what he does with the rest of his life. He [bleep] with the wrong guy, and he knows that, too. He knows for a fact that he [bleep] with the wrong people."

Now the mouthy catcher has a mouthy manager. I'll set aside all the personal rancor for the time being, and even the strategic value (or lack thereof) of character assassination of players in your division, but why the [bleep] did [bleep]ing race come into [bleep]ing play? April 15th was Jackie Robinson day. The aniversary of King's assassination was less than a month ago. If these two men want to sling mud, great; if they want to manipulate the media and sent insults back and forth, fine; if they want to step outside, I'll referee the damn bout myself. Just honestly, can't we hate someone for who he actually is, without bringing his race (or nationality) into the picture?

It's reasons like this that makes virtually everyone outside of the South side root against the White Sox. Some days it's no surprise that the White Sox are the only team to ever try to throw the World Series. Somehow The White Sox always wind up with a black eye.

Notes and Notions: April 19th

2005-04-19T12:05:00.000-05:00

Last night was a full slate with two nationally televised games and one local (the Twins). While watching the games, I came to come conclusions.

Great American Ball Park is a hitters park. Really, really a hitters park. Part of the 6 homeruns and monster doubles were due to the fact that the starters did not have their best stuff (more on this later), but the ball was rocketing around that field

Jerry Hairston Jr. is fast. Really, really fast. He stole a third for the Cubs and his speed was astonishing. With Hairston and Patterson at the top of the order, the Cubs may have a real speed threat. This leads me to my next note as well ...

Dusty Baker makes strange lineups. Really, really streange lineups. I should be used to it by now, after watching some of the incomprehensible moves he made with the Giants (eg, hitting JT Snow third in the lineup). For example, here's the starting lineup for the Cubs against the Reds last night (although I am keeping in mind that Nomar is sitting):
- Jerry Hairston Jr.
- Neifi Perez
- Corey Patterson
- Aramis Ramirez
- Jeromy Burnitz
- Derrek Lee
- Todd Hollandsworth
- Michael Barrett
- Kerry Wood
You can call me crazy, but here's how I'd hit these guys:
- Jerry Hairston Jr.
- Corey Patterson
- Aramis Ramirez
- Derrek Lee
- Jeromy Burnitz
- Todd Hollandsworth
- Neifi Perez
- Michael Barrett
- Kerry Wood
Top load the speed, get to the power earlier in the lineup, and leave the strikeout prone Burnitz later in the lineup. Neifi and Hollandsworth hit for average better than power, so you keep them around to get on base late in the lineup. Furthermore, it is ludicrous to hit Corey Patterson in the third spot in the lineup. It would be like using Kenny Lofton or Rickey Henderson in the same slot.

This is more of a cosmetic concern, but it really got to me. I was watching the Twins on FSN North, and while flipping back to ESPN and TBS, something felt wrong about the game. I realized that the normal camera angle used to film was off center. I tried to figure out why this was the case for about three innings, especially because neither of the other games showed the same incongruity. Then, suddenly, it hit me. It was framed the way it was so the the entire advertisement behind homeplate could be read. It was poor planning by the ballpark to set up the camera wells and the ads where they did, and I realize this is mainly a superficial quibble, but the pitcher was at least 10 to 20 percent right of where he should of been. This was a bit depressing, that the ads have become more important to the broadcast than the game.

George Steinbrenner is a big crybaby. The Yankees make it impossible to win 162 games this year, and he throws a hissy fit in the New York media. This man has the most obvious inferiority complex in the Western Hemisphere.

The Braves announcers are an improvement over past seasons. That being said, they are still some of the worst on television, which is amazing considering they are nationally televised. They also need better topics to discuss. Last night they were commenting on the mowing patterns at Minute Maid Field. On a slightly realted note, the WGN announcers for the Cubs this year are also better. Not less critical, but smarter and more interesting.

The Twins are really counting on youth this year. They are hitting rookie Jason Bartlett second in the lineup (at least they did last night against their division rivals the White Sox) and "super-rookie" Joe Mauer third. That's a serious vote of confidence in these kids (I can say kids because Mauer is younger than I am, if only by a nine days).

There was a bizarre play in the Cubs / Reds game. With the bases loaded and none out, there was a hard chopper to third. Ramirez gloved it, used his momentum to cross third and threw a perfect strike to Barrett to turn two and cut down the run. Barrett then fired wide back to third, which apparently allowed the runner from second to score. Unfortunately for him, he was already out (the force at third). However, this mistake set up second and third with two outs and eventually led to the Reds taking a two run lead (which Graves nearly blew).

Finally, something is really wrong with Kerry Wood. In 12 innings on the year he has an ERA of 5.84, seven walks and no wins. His control is the problem, and unlike his iron horse days, he seems to be fatiguing early in games, in the fifth or sixth. At least Prior has looked good, which would give the Cubs three solid to great starters. They need to figure out something with that bullpen, though.

A bit of a postscript. Clemens threw seven scoreless, but Hudson matched him pitch for pitch, and took it through the ninth before he was lifted for a pinch hitter. They were both on fire tonight.

It was a great night for baseball. This writer is looking forward to the opener for the St. Paul Saints, when I can sit outside and enjoy some baseball. Thankfully, they have Summit on tap at the Saints. The beer, at least, is big league.

The Good Old Days?

2005-04-18T08:20:00.000-05:00

Everyone talked about the new Braves rotation all winter, and mostly they asked questions. Could John Smoltz handle the strain of throwing 200 plus innings? How would Hudson (or any of the Big Three for that matter) perform on his own? How many times could Mike Hampton homer off Mets and Nationals pitching? Can anyone even remember who the hell else starts for the Braves? (John Thomson and Horacio Ramirez, by the way)

The one the puzzled me the most was taking Smoltz from a role in which he had been dominant and putting him into a position where there is enormous potential for risk, both for the team and for his health. It was clear when the Braves acquired Danny Kolb that they were going forward with this gambit. Like a lot of other people, I felt that Kolb was suspect, and that his microscopic strikeout numbers would catch up with him eventually. Gammons was convinced that his numbers from 2003 showed that he had the potential to be a dominant closer who gets key strikeouts, but his numbers have fluctuated wildly throughout his career. In 2001 and 2003 his K/9 were 8.80 and 8.49, but he threw only fifteen innings in '01. 2003 was a great season for Kolb, with an ERA less than two, but that may be what the old folks call a "career year." So far this year, his performance has been disturbing.

You can get away with allowing hitters to put balls in play in order to get outs as long as you don't give up baserunners, and in only five innings this year he's given up six walks and five hits. Right now OBA is .500, and the OPS of hitters against him is 1.247. To give that number some perspective, in 2003, Barry Bonds' season OPS was 1.278, and the AL MVP last year (Guerrero) only had an OPS of .989. it is very early to speculate, but there are signs everywhere. His pitches per inning is up almost three from last year, and his pitches per AB is up one and a half.

I watched most of the Sunday Night game last night on ESPN, and saw all of the 10th inning heroics by the Phillies. But that's not really an accurate description of what happened. What I actually saw was the complete meltdown of Dan Kolb. He proved unable to find the strikezone, and walked the eighth and ninth men in the batting order. Kenny Lofton came up with no one out and tried to bunt towards the third baseman. Kolb pounced on the ball and had more than enough time to cut down the man at third, and possibly to even turn two. However, Kolb threw the ball three feet wide of Larry Jones (Chipper for those of you who are so inclined) and into the outfield, allowing the tying run to score. Next up was Jimmy Rollins, who had the most brilliant bunt I've ever seen, a high bouncer off the dirt in front of home plate that died in the grass, eliminating any possibility of a play. I don't fault Kolb for not being able to field it, as it would have been almost impossible to play. Bobby Cox brought in Kevin Gryboski, who promptly gave up a game winning single to Placido Polanco, a rocket shot that was past Larry (Chipper) Jones before he even had a chance to react.

It was nice to see the Phillies play with some heart, after the dismal seasons they've had over the last few years. Really, though, this seems to me to be an example of a rare misstep by the Braves as an organization. I think that the closer position has been ridiculously overpaid in the last few years, and is held in much higher regard than it should be. This article from The Hardball Times gets to the heart of some of my feelings on the modern, ninth inning, no men on closer. Still, it is a position of great import and was a missing ingredient for the Giants last year that no doubt cost them a playoff spot (and to all you Dodger's fans, if they'd picked up even 3 of their 11 blown saves last season, they'd have won the division). We'll still have to wait and see how Kolb recovers, but for now, the Braves are probably wishing for the good old days when their man in the ninth was the only man left from 1991, and their first NL East Divisional title. It looks like a good week's worth of games on ESPN this week, starting with the Reds at the Cubs tonight. Play ball!

Week 2 Questions

2005-04-12T09:45:00.000-05:00

Well, the season is officially underway and this writer couldn't be happier. Less than ten games into the season, about half the commentators and sportswriters already look foolish in their predictions, which is fine, because in a month the other half will look just as wrong. There is a reason baseball was called the best conversation topic ever invented. However, some specific questions come to mind.

1) Is there an opening day jinx?

Zito, Smoltz, Vasquez, Wells and Radke, had attrocious to poor outings, Zambrano was lifted early in a game (for walking in a run, slightly more forgivable than Wells balking in a run) where the Cubs offense (for a change) spotted him a glut of runs. Plenty of starters had fine days to open the season, and there is a reasonable explanation (for the most part) for all of these starts. Zito is coping with the pressure of leading the A's and still has either problems with his mechanics or psychology. Smoltz had not started regularly since 1999, Vasquez has had all sorts of problems throughout his career, and Wells may simply be getting old. Beer and brats eventually catch up to a man. Radke is harder to explain, but even solid pitchers lose 4 to 8 games a season. And Zambrano still has problems with control, especially when he is excited. I still found it odd how many starters were shelled on opening day.

2 & 3) Are the White Sox this good / Are the Cubs this bad?

The Sox are on top in the Central and would have swept the Twins if they hadn't ran into Johan the Barbarian. Quite simply, at this point, the White Sox are doing the one thing right so far that they've managed to fail at almost every other season. They are pitching competently as a staff. They've always had sluggers, but thus far a solid rotation and a better closer in Takatsu has helped them to look like a team that knows how to win games. Every other year, they've look like a team that found a way to lose them. Takatsu did have one bad game, but in three other chances he has yet to surrender a hit (or even a baserunner). The answer here, is a frightening maybe, and if the Twins lose Silva for the season, there could be baseball in October on the South Side for the first time since 2000.

The Cubs are sputtering along near the bottom of the Central. It has been almost impossible to diagnose this team the last few years. Thier biggest challenge now it to transition from a homerun offense anchored by Alou and Sosa to a hit-and-run singles-and-doubles machine. Whether Dusty Baker will help the team in this regard remains to be seen, but after presiding over the Giants for so many years,(a team anchored by Barry Bonds) his history suggests no. If the Cubs can accomplish this, (which makes the Sosa for Hairston trade make some sense) then their pitching should be able to turn them into a dangerous team. Burnitz may be the key, and if his strikeouts are as high as in previous years (110 to 150 fo a full season), it may be a long summer in Wrigleyville. He alerady has 9 in 32 AB, which is on par with his career rate of a SO every 4 ABs. The X-factors for the Cubs is are Prior and Wood. If they are as healthy as the Cubs would have us believe, they could be great. They do desperately need a new arm (or two or three) in the pen if they want to compete with the other top teams. The Cubs are better than their record, with Wood and Prior. Without them, this looks about right.

(Side note: what is most troubling about the Cubs is how they've won, and lost. the opening day blowout, came from the revamped D'backs, and then they took two from the Berwers. However, the loss that came in their home opener, with a lead in the ninth could become common place if Hawkins continues to struggle. The 1-0 loss to the Padre's may also be a sign of things to come.)

4) What the hell happened to Sammy Sosa?

The other man in the fabled chase for 61, who brought baseball back from the dead after the strike. The Dominican Daddy. The man who, for so long, seemed to bring a rare joy to the game, has six total bases for the season, five hits, no RBI or HR, an AVG of .200 and an SLG of .240. Worst of all, this move was supposed to revitalize him. How could anyone could hit that poorly in a lineup that includes Melvin Mora (who, despite hitting only .115, has at least 1 RBI), Miguel Tejada, Javy Lopez and Rafael Palmeiro is beyond me. His plate discipline has always been lacking, and it may be that pitchers have finally figured out how to sit him down. Sosa used to be the most dependable power hitter in the majors(10 straight seasons with 35+ HR, and 5 straight with 49+), and now he just looks old and tired. He's said he'll retire at 40, no matter what, so maybe he is. Maybe he only has so many hops.

5) The AL East ????

Toronto leads the division by two games over New York and Boston and one and a half over Tampa Bay and Baltimore. How did this happen? Firstly, Toronto looks good, pounded the A's last night, and took two of three from both the Rays and Red Sox. The O's took two from the Yankees, and dropped two to Oakland to even up, and the Rays won two against the A's and one against Toronto. The Yankees and Red Sox have been too busy worrying about each other to worry about teams like Toronto and Baltimore. Furthermore, like the red last year, this lead won't last long for the Blue Jays. $120 million plus payrolls eventually take their toll.

So there you have it, the first official Friendly Confines article of the season. Get out and watch some games. We've all been waiting for this.

Here's to you, Bob Casey

2005-03-27T14:10:00.000-06:00

Attending baseball games in a stadium as sterile as the Metrodome makes a person all the more appreciative of a great announcer. Bob Casey was the voice of the Twins since they arrived in Minnesota in 1961, and even beforehand when they were the Senators. The Twins look to be an exciting team this year, but attending a game without hearing Casey's distinctive "Nooooo smoking at the Metrodome!" won't feel quite right.

Here's to you Mr. Casey.

AL West: Battle Royale

2005-02-19T15:13:00.000-06:00

Here they come, the annual predictions from the Confines staff. I'll start it off with what may be the toughest division to predict. This may turn from the three-way brawl it was last year into a four-way dogfight. But it could just as likely turn into a two-team slugfest. Only one way to find out.

Texas Rangers: 89-73, 3 games back

Without a doubt (besides the complete collapse of the Phillies) the biggest surprise of the season was the Rangers. Previously the whipping boy of the west, Texas had a strong showing late in the season and was legitimately considered a contender for the pennant until the last week of the season.

Clearly, they relied on their offense, scoring the most runs (860) of any team in the division, achieved through a team slugging of .457. Barring injury, the Rangers should be able to run the same lineup out on the field this year, and injury shouldn't be a problem as only one player in their starting lineup is 30 or older, and the average age of their lineup is less than 27.

Where Texas has issues is with their pitching. Only Rodgers and Ryan Drese had more than 10 wins, and they were the only two Texas starters with winning records. While Chan Ho Park could pull himself back together, he's been a mess since he went to Texas, and while R.A. Dickey threw some good games, this is not a staff that is going to see a drastic improvement. The staff was rescued by the bullpen. The relievers who threw the most innings for Texas last year all logged sub 4 ERA's and three were sub 3. To give you an idea of how important this was for the Rangers, the team ERA 4.53.

The Rangers were fourth in the AL for runs scored last year, five back of the White Sox and trailing only the Yankees and Boston. There will probably not be a lot of improvement in the hitting, but there is no reason to think that they will decline. With the departure of Hudson and Mulder, however, and the development that young hitters go through, the team could conceivably hit better than last year. It also bodes well for Texas that they didn't burn out the young bullpen arms that carried them last year.

Prediction:

This is a team that is one or two quality starting pitchers from genuine contention in the playoffs, not just for the West. As long as the organization is smart enough to hold onto Soriano and the corps of young hitters they have, and to let their pitchers develop, they could be a real force in a few years, with a couple of smart signings.

85-77, 7 games back, 3rd place finish.
They'll be close in June and July, but their pitching will start to fall apart down the stretch.

Seattle Mariners: 63-99, 29 games back

The Mariners were a joke last year, with the worst offense in the AL, and fourth worst in baseball. They've reloaded their offense with Sexon and Beltre are hoping to get back into contention for a division they used to dominate.

It's hard to come up with any real strengths this team has. Sure, Sexson and Beltre add some pop from the corners and will send little Ichiro scampering around the bases, but there are still huge holes and huge risks. Betlre had a season that resurrected his career, but hitters who switch leagues sometimes lose their stroke, and Beltre does not seem to be the most together player, even with the rest of the Dodgers as a contrast. He'd never hit higher than .290, never hit more than 23 HR, never slugged higher than .475 until last year. He has no pedigree, and is a huge risk, especially in a new market and a new league.

Sexson is a risk for other reasons. His numbers were great, until last year when he was hurt. Still, Sexson has never played on a team that has been anywhere near winning anything for about a decade. He has been used to being a show more than a star. The only reason to go see the Brewers in the 90's was to see Sexson.

Sele will help out a beleagured staff. If (big if) he can put together the type of 18-9 season that he once did, and can manage to eat some innings he could be a nice pick-up. However last year, he only threw about 5 or 6 innings a start, which is a recipe for disaster for Seattle. Full seasons from Madritsch and Pineiro could help, but this is a team full of 'ifs' right now. Guardado was the only competent pitcher in the pen and was the only pitcher on the staff with an ERA below 3. That is saying something.

Now, while I've made the Mariners out to be a gang of lepers and club-footed mountain men, there is hope this year that was nowhere to be found. Everyone is glad to get out of Arizona, and Sexson is likely no exception. If he stays healthy, he may be thrilled to be playing for a team that could win three to four times as many games as his team won last year. That sound like motivation to me. Also, with Beltre, he might do better in a smaller market, out of the LA limelight, in a town where an 80 to 90 win season would be met with a parade.

Still, this is a team with more holes than pieces. If Beltre, Sexson, Ichiro and the rest of the lineup hit like they're capable of, and the starting staff puts good innings together, this is a team that could stay in the hunt.

Prediction:

They'll never get back to 116, but they don't have to. Seattle would be happy with a winning season, which they will have, barely.

83-81, 9 games back, 4th place finish.
Close in the early summer, in the pack with Texas.

Oakland Athletics: 91-71, one game back

Even though they haven't won a World Series since 1989 the A's are the closest thing to a dynasty that the West has. Since Beane has introduced the new Sabermetric logic the A's have the most wins for the least dollars. From 2001 to 2003 they had two less wins than the Yankees and one less than the Mariners (helped a ton by the 116 season) for a third and a half of the payroll, respectively. Beane now has made the most controversial decisions of his career, trading away Hudson and Mulder to reload with young talent and avoid losing them to free agency.

Predicting how the rotation will respond to the loss of Hudson and Mulder is near impossible. Zito has fallen off his 2002 numbers (23-5, 2.75) drastically, but this was his only season with an ERA over 3.5 and a SLG over .350. Anyone who watched him this season could see that his problems were more with his head than his mechanics. Harden improved from last year and is beginning to turn into the pitcher that Beane hoped he would. The trades picked up the bullpen help that the A's needed to get back to the sort of numbers they put up in 2003.

The offense is a bit easier to predict. Kendall is an incredible pickup, a good defensive catcher who has experience with young arms who hits for great average. The Giants picked up a catcher with the same defensive skills whose career average is 67 points lower. Crosby's power numbers were promising, and several highly touted prospects are going to hit the majors with the A's this year, including Swisher of Moneyball fame. Durazo's numbers finally have climbed back up to how he played his rookie year, with a healthy bounce in HR and RBI. With a chance to DH, he has stayed healthy and his swing has returned. It's now very easy to imagine why Beane wanted to trade for him for so long. If the Lion of Alameda County (Chavez) stays healthy and one or two of the prospects really produce, the A's will have a daunting lineup. (Oh, and as a side note, Chavez's one weakness, his inability to hit left-handed pitching, seems to have disappeared this past season. He actually hit lefties better, .306 vs .257.)

Prediction:

One thing is for sure, that the bullpen will not be as overworked or understaffed as it was last year. If the young players come together, the A's could run away with the division. Likely, a few will develop, and a few will lag and the A's will be breathing down the necks of the West Coast Yankees rising, the Angels.

91-71, 1 game back, 2nd place finish.
I see it ending exactly the way it did this year, with the pitching giving out in late September. But, just wait ‘til next year. If the AL West has any sense, they will be very afraid of the A's, they could be great now, and they will be great later.

Anaheim Angels: 92-80, AL West champions

Amazing that this team is able to win they way they do, considering the fact that they're more concerned with how their name affects their marketing money than actual baseball. They only lag Boston and the Yankees in payroll. Want a new understanding of economics? In baseball, one win is worth $42,083,694(the difference between the A's and Angels' payrolls).

Colon did win 18 games, but his ERA was above 5. Sele was over 5 too, and Washburn and Lackey were both north of 4.6. Their best ERA from a starter was 3.93 from Kelvim Escobar. Much like Texas, they were bailed out by their pen and their slugging offense. Losing Guillen, even with the acquisition of Finley hurts the Angels, and very few 40 year-old players hold up as well as Barry Bonds. Furthermore, given his historically low RBI numbers(65 a year), Cabrera is more of a gamble than a sure producer.

Byrd could come around, but he's been injury-ridden for a few years and has not looked dominant since he left KC. If he is healthy, though, he could save the pen some innings. The rest of the staff, as I said before, middling. The Angels are also banking that Francsico Rodriguez will turn into the next Eric Gagne. When you get down to it, they have almost as many question marks as any other team in the division.

92-70, AL West champions.
Again, in a very tight race, the Angels edge out the A's in the last weeks, if Gurerro and the offense keep firing. Remember, it took an incredible performance from Vlad last year just to get close enough to have a chance to beat Oakland in the last three games of the year. The Angels have a tenuous hold on the division at best.

Well, in five months, we'll see how wrong I've been. I'll finish off the West next week when we'll answer the burning questions, can the Giants win with four outfielders and JT Snow covering the entire right side alone? Will The Dodgers change their name to the Orange County Dodgers to cash in on the popular FOX series. Will the Padres convert legions of fans to fill Petco Field? And will anyone ever care about the Rockies or Diamondbacks again? Stay tuned sports fans.

The Icing on the Cake

2005-02-16T23:57:00.000-06:00

Here in Minnesota there is still snow. There may well still be snow the first day of the season. It has happened before. But in Florida and Arizona there is plenty of sun and Spring training is only days away. As a matter of fact, this may be one of the best spring trainings in recent history, not because of all the interesting (and puzzling) moves in the offseason, not because of the steroid spectre hanging over players, and not even to see who will win the annual Coconut Shrimp-eating contest (Livan Hernandez is the favorite at 5:2, but C.C. Sabathia is good money at 1:4 and Prince Fielder is a steal at 1:20).
Not, loyal baseball fans, the reason that this spring will be so great is that, for once, there will be no damn hockey. Free at last, free at last, thank Lord Almighty, free at last. Now if only the NBA could go on strike as well, then ESPN would have nothing to report but college sports and preseason baseball. Think about it. Sunday Night Baseball will not be preempted for NHL playoffs. Not once. Not even for the Stanley Cup. We will finally be able to see all those early season games that let us see how a team is taking shape. The Blue Jays might actually draw a crowd. I know Canadians love their hockey, but the Jays could win them over, if they manage to win a game or two, or sell beer.
There are a million other reasons this season will be fantastic, but for now I'm just thrilled that I won't have to watch a single second of hockey for six months. For that, I'll take all the Jose Canseco's, all the Barry Melrose commentary, hell, all the Joe Buck commentary, in the world.

Stay tuned, predictions, analysis and opinionated articles to follow. Spring Training has begun for the Friendly Confines three man rotation.

Aho's Hall of Fame Ballot

2005-01-21T12:04:00.000-06:00

Every year the Hall of Fame selects the most obvious choices for Cooperstown. However, it seems as if the hall excludes too many deserving players becuase they don't fit into the tradtional mold. A player's worth is rarely possible ascertain using the artifical standards of three hundred wins or five hundred home runs. Considering that there were 42 voters foolish enough to vote againist Wade Boggs, and almost a quarter of the voters voted againist Ryne Sandberg I shouldn't be shocked. I will make a late attempt to make my case for a few potential hall of famers and as honor the two players (Boggs and Sandberg) who did manage to gain enterance into the Hall.

1. Wade Boggs

The great average hitter for his time, hitting for an average of .352 the decade of the 1980's. Boggs held a lifetime OBP of .415 same as Hall of Famer Stan Musial and just ahead of Hall of Famer Mel Ott. Boggs was a pitcher's nightmare, leading the American league in intential walks for six seasons. Boggs was the consumate hitter of the 1980's.

2. Ryne Sandberg

It is absolutely amazing that it took so long. When I think of the Cubs in the 80's the first name that comes up is that of Sandberg. Sandberg was so good that he ranks not only as thre best second basemen of his era, but as one of the best second basemen ever. Sandberg ranks second among second basemen in home runs (Kent passed him this fall), won nine gold gloves, and holds a lifetime fielding percentage of .989. In an era where second basemen were not expected to hit, Sandberg created a whole new offensive standard for his postion.

3. Bert Blyleven

Blyleven has become the textbook case for why 300 wins is a foolish standard for the Hall . Blyleven's combined ERA from 1970 to 1978 was 2.84 and yet he only went 136-123 in the same period. Blyleven had a habit of playing for teams with bad pullpens, such as the world champion 1979 Pirates who gave Blyleven twenty no decisions. His 287 wins still far exceed the totals of several Hall of Famers such as "Catfish" Hunter or Sandy Coufax. Blyleven is the only non-active player to rank in the top 10 in career strikeouts not in the Hall of Fame. Blyleven (tied for sixth) is the only non active player aside from Mickey Lolich (tied for tenth) in the top 10 for number of seasons with 200+ strikeouts not in the Hall of Fame. The only non active player in the top ten in shutouts not in the Hall of Fame. Here are baseball-reference.com's statistically most similar pitchers to Bert Blyleven:

Don Sutton (914) *
Gaylord Perry (909) *
Fergie Jenkins (890) *
Tommy John (889)
Robin Roberts (876) *
Tom Seaver (864) *
Jim Kaat (854)
Early Wynn (844) *
Phil Niekro (844) *
Steve Carlton (840) *

* - Signifies Hall of Famer
If stats don't do it for you ask any player who faced Blyleven in the 1970's or 80's about that curveball. Or watch some tape of the 79' or 87' series. Just please, don't be as foolish as the voters and dismiss him based on his win-loss record.

4. Goose Gossage

Before the closer came into vouge there was the fireman. Like the modern closer the fireman was usually the best pitcher in a bullpen, but instead of only being used in the bottom of the ninth to protect a lead the fireman was expected to do much more. The fireman would take over a game (usually, but not always with the tie or the lead) anywhere from the 6th inning onward and be expected to finish it. Gossage was one of the last of the firemen, and one of the very best. Gossage pitched over 130 inning in relief three times, and pitched over 90 innings in relief six times. Gossage held opposing batters to an astonishing .228 average over his long career. Gossage's save total looks puny compared with absurd numbers of the modern closer, but Goose earned his 310 saves two, three or even four innings at a time.

5. Andre Dawson

Pity the Expos. First the 1994 strike killed what ought to have been a great year for baseball in Montreal, then Jeffery Loria ran the team into the ground, and now they don't even exist. Today the Hall of Fame voters seem determined to punish former an outstanding former Expo for playing north of the border. Andre Dawson was one of the jewels produced by the Expos farm system. The striking thing about the Hawk is how complete a player he was. Dawson won eight gold gloves, the only two players to match his totals in Home Runs, Hits and Stolen bases are Barry Bonds and Willie Mays, elected to the all star team eight times and a rookie of the year in 1977. Unforunately for Dawson all of his best years were with Montreal and the turf in Stade Olympique demolished his knees. The voters remember the player they saw with the Cubs, still an excellent hitter but hampered by injury. Without any knees Dawson could never be the same combonation of speed, defense and power that he was as an Expo. However the Hawk won the NL MVP award in 1987, proving that he would not go away quitely.

Pohlad Blues

2004-12-15T22:38:00.000-06:00

While the Mets signed Pedro to a mind-numbingly enormous contract the Twins were outbid by the Toronto Blue Jays for Corey Koskie. This, if anything, is a clear sign of the state of major League Baseball. Indications are that the Twins were unwilling to give the oft injured Koskie a third year on his contract. Koskie is not one of the elite free agents of the offseason, but his contributions to the Twins will be sorely missed. Koskie was one of the last remaining 2001 Twins to leave, part of the team which brought the Twins back into contention after the dark years of 1993-2000. Koskie was the most patient hitter in a lineup of hackers. His plate discipline was straight out of Moneyball. With a career OBP of .373, 25 home runs in 2004, excellent defense and the respect and admiration of his teammates, Koskie has become (in the words of Sid Hartman) "The Twins biggest free agent loss since Jack Morris."

One could argue that the Twins lost Koskie because they were wary of his pattern of nagging injuries. This is partly right. However, if Carl Pohlad was willing to raise the payroll by even a few million, the risk would have been far smaller. Most teams sign players which never return the investment made on them due to injury or lack of ability. The Yankees are a prime example with four players signed to massive contracts who have vastly underachieved (Giambi, Brown, Vasquez and Williams) due to these same factors.

The difference between the Twins and the Yankees is this. The Yankees can afford million dollar blunder after million dollar bunder after million dollar blunder; the Twins can't. If Twins owenership spends anything beyond two or three million the bunder becomes crippling. Joe Mays was signed to a large contract after a stellar 2002 season and was injured almost immediately afterwards. The Twins lost seven million in Terry Ryan's seasonal quest to make Pohlad's self imposed salary cap of 54 million. With an extra seven million the Twins could have kept Koskie. Instead they paid for Mays' injury troubles in a way only a small market team can, leaving Twins fans everywhere signing the Pohlad Blues this winter.

Come right out and meet the Mets

2004-12-13T19:17:00.000-06:00

Nothing is official , but I suppose no trade is truly official until after Billy Beane is asked if he wants to be included. Nothing has been signed, although I have no doubt that the Mets sent a couple of six pack of Mont Blancs. Nothing at this point is definite, but there is a good chance that come April, Pedro will be throwing the opener at Shea with Sammy behind him in right.

Admittedly, the Mets were 26th in the league in runs scored and 28th in hits. However, over this same period, they were pathetic in several other statistical categories, including fifth in strikeouts (in their lineup), 19th in walks, and 28th in OBP. Truthfully, it's hard to know where to start if you're the Mets. They rank 28th in fielding percentage, but eighth in ERA. They were 26th in strikeouts (by their pitching staff), fifth in walks given up, and 27th in saves. Just to toss in one more stat, the Mets were 15th (dead middle of the league) in homeruns hit.

This is not a problem with an easy solution. The easiest part is identifying what does not need to be done. I see only one thing. The Mets need not take any drastic steps to reduce staff ERA. The ERA was spread evenly across the staff, so neither starters nor relievers carried or hindered the team. One very obvious problem is that of saves. Looper was fairly consistent (29 of 34) but blown saves are scattered through the bullpen, 6 from Mike Stanton and 4 from Ricky Bottalico with five others floating around. Those fifteen blown saves in the hands of a more capable, more durable closer could have been turned easily into ten more wins, enough to move the Mets to .500. While a dominant starter is certianly an ambitious move, it may not be the most oportune one, especially when Mets pitchers are hamstrung by a defense that rivals the current EPA in both agressiveness and effectiveness. If the Mets really wanted to improve their staff, they should have found some competent, tough relievers and, most importantly, they should have held onto Scott Kazmir. At a bare minimum, his trade potential would have skyrocketed given the current state of free agent pitchers on the market. With the exceptions of Johnson and Martinez, the pitching market is composed of possible or current number two and three starters. If Kazmir would have posted a few good starts with the Mets at the end of the year after they were out of the running, he could have brough considerable compensation to the Mets. I fault the Mets in no way for signing Pedro, though, as he is a quality pitcher who is definite to give a team five more wins a season over the average starter. However, I think there are other, larger holes to fill, especially on defense and offensive consistency.

None of the offensive categories that the Mets are deficient in (R, H, K, BB, and AVG) are categories that Sosa will help substantially in. His defense is average, but does nothing to help an error prone, weak throwing outfield. He will add some spash to a team with the personality of cardboard, surly cardboard, but if he leaves Chicago with bad blood, I have the feeling that some of those feelings will carry over, and New York sports fans are the least forgiving people on the face of the Earth. It has been mentioned ad nauseam that Sosa's gentle, senstitve persona will be in conflict with the New York fans. I can see the same sort of issues with Pedro, who is extremely susceptible to his emotions. Sosa's and Redro's high maintenance personalities will be targets if the Mets underachieve, as they are alsmot certian to do.

Now, finishing this on the morning of the 14th, the Pedro trade is official and I expect Sosa's name to find its way back into the hot stove conversations by tomorrow. No matter if they win or lose, I can say something about the Mets' season this year that usually can't be said. It's going to be interesting.

The Court of Public Opinion

2004-12-11T10:33:00.000-06:00

While in the middle of my weekly baseball reading, I came across this article on ESPN.com. It deserves to be reprinted in full. For those you you who prefer the Page 2 site itself, here is the direct link.

HOW CAN YOU BE SURE?

by Skip Bayless

From the start, it was as clear as "the clear" that the feds were only after one man. It was obvious the Bush administration wanted to slap one big, bad face on its campaign to clean up steroid abuse in sports. After all, that dartboard face belongs to the easiest target this side of Osama.

Most fans already consider Barry Bonds an arrogant jerk. Most people outside the Bay Area view him as a muscled-up monster wielding a war club. THG, the name of a new, undetectable steroid, might as well have stood for That Hated Godzilla.

Barry Bonds has already been convicted -- without proof.
All along, federal agents and prosecutors whispered to reporters that they had enough evidence to take down the San Francisco Giant. Stand-up-in-court evidence. Go-to-jail-for-perjury evidence that Bonds routinely received anabolic steroids supplied by indicted BALCO founder Victor Conte to Bonds' indicted trainer and friend, Greg Anderson.

So for months, reporters anticipated a BALCO trial just before the presidential election. Sure, the Bush administration would turn it into one last political baseball with which to knock some Bonds-hating voters off the fence. But the election came and went without so much as a trial date being set.

However, that didn't plug the illegal leaks to the media. Last week, the biggest bombshell was dropped by the San Francisco Chronicle, right on Bonds' head. The newspaper printed what was supposed to be his sealed testimony to the BALCO grand jury.

That's when this became as clear as shattered glass: The feds have decided their evidence will get them no farther than the court of public opinion. And in that runaway jury of an arena, Bonds quickly was convicted and sentenced to life in baseball's Hall of Shame.

Surely the feds knew exactly what they were doing. They tossed a match in a bone-dry forest of squawk-show hosts and fans dying to bury Bonds. Within hours, most people had leaped, or been yanked, to this conclusion: Bonds finally admitted he uses steroids!

Talk about a crime.

The feds knew most people wouldn't let the facts get in their way. Most people want to believe Bonds' body is chiseled in steroids. But nobody seems to have any of that case-building fuel called proof.

Understand, you're talking to a columnist who has been as publicly suspicious of Bonds' pumped-up physique as any member of the media. Since Bonds hit his record 73 home runs in 2001, I've written that it's virtually impossible to pack on 30 or so pounds of lean muscle mass in your mid-30s -- when the body's muscle-building testosterone naturally wanes -- without some help from performance-enhancing drugs. But I've always concluded that I can't know for sure because, to this day, I have not witnessed Bonds ingesting or injecting steroids and I'm not aware of a single person beyond the shady Anderson (or Bonds himself) who can provide evidence that Bonds "juiced."

But let's be as clear as a magnifying glass about exactly what Bonds told the grand jury. He did not tell them what Jason Giambi told them, according to testimony leaked to the Chronicle the day before the Bonds bombshell. Giambi admitted he had been buying and using traditional black-market steroids and human growth hormone long before he approached Bonds' trainer for tips on how to maintain the physical edge Bonds has sustained through his late 30s.

That, Giambi testified, was when Anderson recommended he use the two forms of THG. "The clear" could be taken orally. "The cream" could be rubbed into the skin like ointment.

Remember, the athletes who testified before the grand jury were granted immunity -- as long as they told the truth. They do not have immunity from perjury.

Yet Bonds told the grand jury basically the same story that his former friend Gary Sheffield did. Sheffield said he trusted Anderson because Bonds had known him since high school, when Bonds and Anderson had been teammates. Sheffield said that, after training with Bonds one offseason, he briefly used some stuff Anderson had recommended. Only later, he said, did he find out it was THG.

Bonds shouldn't be guilty just because Giambi admitted using steroids.
True or not, that's a plausible story.

Bonds said he was so run-down following the death of his father during the 2003 season that Anderson recommended a "rubbing balm." Bonds said Anderson compared it to "flaxseed oil." Bonds said it did nothing for him and that he soon stopped using it.

Again, a plausible story.

Yes, reportedly, Anderson kept records of Bond's THG use dating back to 2001. And yes, the feds leaked a phone call they taped of Anderson boasting to an unidentified acquaintance about the steroid program he had designed for Bonds. Yet an ESPN "Outside the Lines" report portrayed Anderson as little more than a small-time pusher who sold and used steroids.

It's certainly possible that Bonds is guilty only of trusting the wrong "friend." It's possible Anderson, in the taped call, was merely trying to impress a buddy with exaggerated claims that he created Barry Bonds, robo-slugger. I must admit: It is still possible that Bonds, with the all-time great genetics passed down from his father Bobby, a five-tool star, was able to turn himself into a late-30s record-breaker by taking nothing more than legal supplements and eating and training with severe discipline.

This, remember, isn't track and field. That sport long ago ruled out the "I didn't know" defense from athletes who tested positive. In international track and field, competitors are held solely responsible for what they put into their bodies. The dog cannot eat their homework.

But baseball remains in its steroid-abusing infancy. This is the first time star players have claimed they were duped into using performance-enhancers. This was a "designer" steroid that didn't require a needle and syringe. Hypothetically, if Anderson had said, "Hey, just try shooting this stuff in your butt," Bonds surely would have been more suspicious.

Bonds and Sheffield could become baseball's first cautionary tales -- and the last players given a reprieve for not finding out exactly what they were putting into their bodies.

Either way, I need proof.

I've spent enough time around Bonds to tell you he's a maddeningly elusive blend of naive and sly. There's the Bonds who was born with a Silver Slugger in his mouth, the privileged son of a star and the godson of a superstar, Willie Mays. Barry Lamar Bonds was spoiled rotten and often shielded from an outside world he was taught not to trust. He can be blindly, childishly loyal to the few in his inner circle he thinks are his friends.

But Barry Bonds, baseball player, is as wise as a serpent. He's the first hitter who has ever had the advantage over most pitchers because he knows them better than they know themselves. Because of a long-ago injury, he's still allowed to wear a hard-plastic protector on the arm exposed to the pitcher. But would he resort to, say, using a corked bat? No way. Too proud. Too good.

To using steroids? I can't be sure.

Bonds was taught by his father to despise the media. He has admitted to reporters that "you guys shouldn't believe half the stuff I tell you." But does that prove he lied when he told HBO's Bob Costas in 2002 that he "has never used" steroids?

Bonds' numbers are incredible -- but it remains to be seen whether he cheated.
Sorry, no.

Giambi didn't incriminate Bonds. No other player did, that we know. In interviews with ESPN The Magazine and ABC's "20/20," Conte ratted out sprinters Marion Jones and Tim Montgomery -- and in turn incriminated himself, much to his lawyers' shock. But Conte admitted only to supplying Anderson with THG. Conte said he had no idea if Anderson was giving it to "Barry or Gary."

Several Bay Area media members I respect -- guys who knew Bobby Bonds -- believe Barry was taught far too much respect for the game to stoop to steroids. For sure, he's the most gifted player I've seen. No hitter has ever been more disciplined or made consistently better contact while swinging with such perfect balance and mechanics at so few pitches. For me, Bonds is in a league with Michael Jordan for performing on cue. The more Bonds has been criticized, the mentally tougher he has become under pressure.

You can argue that steroids might have boosted Bonds' confidence and made his trigger a little quicker, allowing him a split-second longer to recognize a pitch. But he would have had my Hall of Fame vote before he got big.

And while it might not be probable, it's still possible Bonds jumped from 49 homers in 2000 to 73 the next season simply because he discovered the late-career wonders of nutrition, supplements and weight-training. It's also possible he has perjured himself and will go to jail.

But spring training draws nearer without anything but leaks.

Bonds will still pack The House that Barry Built -- SBC Park. A Bonds at-bat will remain the most riveting moment in sports. People who wouldn't have watched before will want to see how far those "mutant muscles" can send a ball into the bay.

And for the rest of my days, I might wonder if, just maybe, Barry Bonds was wrongly convicted in the court of public opinion.

Dear John to Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, Canseco, Sheffield, Caminiti ...

2004-12-08T23:00:00.000-06:00

I can't bring myself to read the full reports. I knew all along that there was circumstantial evidence. I knew for years that there were accusations and allegations. I knew, for as much as I personally dislike Sheffield, there was something in his stories a few months ago. I knew that my father was probably right. Up until the last week I was able to put up barriers. I wanted to believe in him.

Unlike Aho and Brooks, I am not a Minnesota native. I didn't see the great World Series in '87 or '91. I grew up in the Bay Area, about equidistant from San Francisco and Oakland. My greatest memories are of the Bay Bridge Series, the earthquake, and the Bash Brothers. Now the first thing that comes to mind when I think of McGwire is Creatine. When I think of the madcap race he and Sosa had to 61, all I can think of is a shattered bat on a grey day at Wrigley and x-rays of Hall of Fame memorabilia. Bonds is not the first hero to fall from grace. We forgave McGwire. We forgave Sosa. But Barry may be a different story. I'm not interested, however, in speculation as to when and how fully we may or may not forgive Barry. I'm not that rational right now. I'm still thinking about his homeruns, his elbows hanging over the inside edge of the plate, the electric feeling when he came into the on deck circle. I'm still thinking about the road trip I took to Chicago just so I could see the Giants play a game, about standing the whole game because the only tickets left were standing room, and that the morning after I went to the game he hit a ball in batting practice that broke a window in a building across the street. I'm thinking about all the nights and days I went to the park to see him. But I don't know what to think of it anymore. It feels like a relationship, when someone says they've been cheating on you. All these memories you have suddenly feel out of place. You don't know what to do with them anymore.

In Aho's entry, he suggested that Bonds' fault was greater than Rose's. I disagree. Bonds may have dirtied the game, but he did so the same way that Sosa, McGwire, Canseco, and however many spitball pitchers ever existed. He did so trying to be better, stronger, faster. He erred but it was for the game. Rose bet on the game while managing. I see no worse act on could take on the game. Nothing is more dishonorable, nothing leaves a more indelible mark. Bonds tried to give himself an edge, albeit an ilicit one. Rose used the game explicitly for his own financial gain. He did not show respect to the competition. His bets led the bets of thousands of bookees and gamblers, all convinced that Rose knew something they didn't. What Rose did says more than "I'm going to win this game anyway I can, even if I cheat." What Rose did says, "I care more about making money from betting on games than winning the games themselves." I guess what I'm saying is I'd let Bonds babysit, but not Rose.

Only one act in the history of baseball was worse than what Rose did. Only the Black Socks are deeper in baseball hell than Rose. The rest of these players, I believe, are bound for purgatory. They need time to reflect on their folly, to see where they went wrong, even as they pursued what they believed was good.

To return to my earlier analogy, I think at this point in my relationship with Barry, there's only one thing left to say; It was good while it lasted.

Roids and Roses

2004-12-07T22:00:00.000-06:00

In the past few years sports commentators, writers and bloggers including the bloggers of the Confines have heaped praise on Barry Bonds. The man changed the game to the point that he almost singlehandedly put his team in the playoffs. In the past four seasons Bonds hit a home run in 7.9 at bats, shattered the all time walk record. Bonds' performance over the past four years turned statisticians on their collective heads. He was far from my favorite player but I still called him the best hitter since Ted Williams.

Until this..

I'm lucky in a way. This hurts a bit less for me. I was introduced to baseball through the Twins of 1987 and 1991. This is an organization which last had a player hit 30 or more home runs in 1987. So its easier for me to pass judgement from afar, confident that my team is clean. I don't have the complications of being a Giants fan, or much of a Bonds fan for that matter. Even for me, however, what Bonds did to baseball surpasses everything except what baseball did to itself in 1994.

Bonds was never popular in the way which Sosa and McGwire were. Barry wasn't supposed to break the record set in the now cannonized summer of 1998. Bonds ignored the media, and they made him pay for it, helping to make Bonds one of the most unpopular players in the game. At the same time Barry was forced to deal with his father Bobby Bonds waste away from cancer. Although Bonds has damaged the game more than any single invidual player, he is no monster.

In the 1980's the Pete Rose scandal rocked the game. Rose disgraced the game. There is no doubt of that. Rose did not however, throw the credibility of every hitter in the game into question. Rose did not draw other managers into betting on baseball (at least that I'm aware of). Rose disgraced himself alone, and baseball could retain an appearance of intregrity.

Bonds' sin is not simply that he was a player who took steriods, it is that Barry Bonds took steriods. Bonds was already a hall of fame player before he began to take the steriods. Bonds was the son of a great player, godson of an even greater player. Bonds was the heir to the mantle of Mays and Aaron and he threw it away. Bonds drew other players to the same deplorable means of ascent which he has used to unprecdented effect.

From the San Francisico Chronicle:

"One week after Bonds testified, New York Yankees first baseman Jason Giambi and his brother Jeremy, both former Oakland A's, described in detail how they had injected themselves with performance-enhancing drugs. The Giambis testified they were drawn to Anderson because of Bonds' success.

Other players who admitted their use of performance-enhancing drugs were former Giants Armando Rios, Benito Santiago and Bobby Estalella. The players said they had come to know Anderson because he was Bonds' trainer.

A sixth witness, Yankees outfielder Gary Sheffield, testified that while he trained with Bonds in the Bay Area before the 2002 baseball season, Bonds had arranged for him to receive "the cream," "the clear" and "red beans," which the prosecutors identified as steroid pills manufactured in Mexico.

Sheffield said he had never been told that the substances were steroids. Bonds also was using "the cream" and "the clear," Sheffield said. "Nothing was between me and Greg," Sheffield testified. "Barry pretty much controlled everything. ... It was basically Barry (saying), 'Trust me. Do what I do.""

I don't know for certain is Sheffield is telling the truth, but it doesn't really matter. The pattern is very clear. Every single player associated with BALCO was drawn into it by Bonds, either directly (as Sheffield testified) or indirectly as with the Giambi's.

Bonds' accomplishments of the past four seasons are now relgated to the scrapheap of history. Everything which Barry might well have ligitmately accomplished is now nothing. A possible astrisk would become Bonds' scarlet letter. The effects of what Bonds' has done to the game is far worse than anything which Pete Rose did. While Rose compromised his postion as manager, Bonds ruined the credibility of all any player who nears the hitting prowess which he displayed over the past four seasons. Throughout the events of the past four years I have remarked that baseball seemed to be one of the last vestiges of the promise of America: that all people will be able to rise as far as talent and hard work can take them. Amid the corproate scandals, prison abuse, debt, and religious intolerance baseball remained above the fray, untainted in my mind.

No longer.

Rocket's Red Glare

2004-11-22T09:56:00.000-06:00

It was a fear of mine that the flash of Beltre or the flare and panache that the Big Cardinal three would cloud the eyes of the MVP voters in the NL. I was afraid they might lose sight of the fact that while the other four major candidates for the award had fantastic, even miraculous seasons, that none of them were the Most Valuable Player.

Not even close. One man in baseball changes the game like no other, and his name is Barry Bonds. The sportswriters (and my fellow bloggers) agreed with me, on the MVP. They ignored the typical numbers that define an MVP and looked at numbers in light of the BBE (Barry Bonds Era). Brooks, Aho and I extended this same sabermetric grace to CY Young candidates, (although I don't care if you evaluate Santana in conventional, unconventional, sbaermetric, bianary or roman-numeral terms, he won it ever way) and it was Randy who came out on top. Just for a point of comparison, I've also included Jason Schmidt's numbers

W L ERA IP K/9 K/BB AVG SLG
C 18 4 2.98 214.1 9.15 2.76 .217 .329
J 16 14 2.60 245.2 10.62 6.59 .197 .315
S 18 7 3.20 225.0 10.04 3.26 .202 .323

With the exception of ERA and wins, Schmidt was better than Clemens. Neither was even close to Johnson. He was a force to be reckoned with. HE THREW A PERFECT GAME. I know some of the terminology can be difficult, but I think this one is self explanatory. Randy was dominant this season, just shy of three hundred strikeouts. Clemens had 218 (Jason came in at 251). If the DBacks would have scored him just three runs a game ...

Unlike previous years, I will not argue that Jason Schmidt was robbed of a Cy Young award, even when all of his statistics were perceptibly better than Clemens, even given injury problems. After deciding to vote for Bonds, the sportswriters of this country must have turned off there brains and jumped on the star spangled bandwagon, thinking how wonderful it was that Clemens hadn't retired. I would have been much happier if he drove off into the sunset in his Steinbrenner-bought Hummer, so that Randy "Dead Eye" Johnson could have sauntered up to the conference table and got the respect he so richly deserved.

Retirement Community?

2004-11-18T21:42:00.000-06:00

I guess that Brian Sabean wants to go into the nursing home business instead of general managing. Make no mistake, Omar Vizquel is a solid signing, but only for a one or two year deal and only at 2 million a year. Otherwise he's being overpaid. Take a look at the elders the Giants are projected to field next year:

C A.J. Pierzynski 28 (athough he looks like a teenager when you remember the Giants 2002 starting catcher, Benito Santiago)
1B J.T. Snow 37
2B Ray Durham 33
SS Omar Vizquel 38
3B Edgardo Alfonzo 31
LF Barry Bonds 40
CF Marquis Grissom 38
RF Michael Tucker 34

Omar is a great pickup as a cheap stopgap shortstop, but he is not a long term solution for any team, let alone a team which is already this old. It is beyond my ability to comprehend why on earth Sabean would spend $12.25 million on Vizquel when the Giants have almost no relief pitching.

Not content with making such an awful move there are reports that the Giants are courting Steve Finley. I like Steve Finley, he's a good fielder for his age and proved last year that he can still swing the bat. I have no doubt that he would be better than Grissom, however, Finley is going to turn 40 this coming March. Another 40 year old is the last thing the Giants need, although when you consider how good that forty year old is, you might think about it for about three seconds. Then you remember that there is only one Barry.

I have no doubt that as long as Barry Bonds continues to smash records, the Giants will contend. However, the Giants a timebomb ticking towards a geriatric explosion. Instead of giving his lineup some youth to offset the anicent status of most of his players Sabean continues to tempt fate. I'd be quite nervous if I was a Giants fan right now.

Perversity

2004-11-05T11:40:00.000-06:00

.

Good Lord.

I cannot believe anyone selecting the gold glove winners this year even proposed Jeter with a straight face.

It was not as if there were not other canidates: Guzman, Omar, Crosby. Even Orlando Cabrera would have been better. I'm not going to get into the stats here, since somebody already did a hell of a job of that:

Aaron's Baseball Blog

It looks like the Yankees really can buy anything.

The Bud Selig of the real world

2004-11-04T20:11:00.000-06:00

I guess this is what happens when the Yankees actually lose to the Red Sox. If it's not one evil empire, it's another.

Postseason Awards Edition

2004-10-28T12:49:00.000-05:00

After the miracle of this World Series, the exorcism of the curse of the Bambino, and the most spectacular comeback / collapse in sports history, it's still not over. For those of us who cannot get enough of baseball, these are the days when we huddle together, crunching stats, reminiscing about our favorite moments and making our cases for the best players of the year. Unlike the sportswriters, we've seen fit to add a category, to give recognition to those who deserve it. Brooks, while on the DL with a nasty virus, has nonetheless given his blessings to to picks the Aho and I (Righty) have made. To keep it simple, I'll distinguish myself in italics.

So now, without further ado, here they are, the best of 2004.

AL Cy Young: Johan Santana

I have more or less argued this one to death. I think it is quite telling however, that Curt Schilling has said that Santana was completely deserving of the award. When you get an endorsement from your nearest competition (who was miles back anyway), the race is over.

2. Curt Schilling
3. Rest of league

AL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero

Vlad "The Impaler" Guerrero managed to almost singlehandedly muscled the Angels into the playoffs. In the last nine games of the season Guerrero drove in 11 RBI's, including two in that critical October 2nd game with the A's. He didn't have a bad season aside from that either, hitting .337 with 126 RBI and 36 HR. Sheffield deserves some consideration, but the protection in the Yankee lineup far exceeds anything the Angels can offer. Without Guerrero the Angels aren't even contenders for the AL West.

2. Johan Santana
What more is there to say? Completely dominant. Gaudy numbers, intimidation factor through the roof, and hasn't lost in around twenty five starts. Without him, the Twins are questionable to win the division. With him, they win it in a walk.

A quick note: After the disgrace of the NL Cy Young in 2003 (when Jason Schmidt was robbed), I and many of my fellow baseball fans felt that relievers needed an award of their own, and that the Cy Young should henceforth only be given to starting pitchers. We will hope that the baseball writers of America follow suit.

AL Relief Pitcher of the Year: Joe Nathan

Although he had an excellent bullpen in fromt of him, Nathan's stellar numbers set him apart from his competition. His ERA is a miniscule 1.62, opponents are hitting Nathan at only .187. Nathan also boasts an outstanding K/9 ratio of 11.07. Nathan became the mainstay of a bullpen which was considered to be questionable at the begining of the season and became a dominant force in the ninth for the Twins.

2. Keith Foulke
If the postseason were included, Foulke would likely take over the first spot from Nathan. He was a horse for Francona and silenced every hitter he was asked to.
3. Mariano Rivera
If the postseason were included, he might be bumped off the list completely.

NL MVP: Barry Bonds

There is no argument. There is no debate. Barry bonds is the textbook definition of MVP. The man redefines greatness every season. The only records he has left to break are Ruth's Aaron's and his own. How about a single season OPS of 1.4217 and an OBP of over .600, the highest totals ever(breaking his own records from 2002)? How about 45 homeruns in 373 AB(it took Beltre 598 AB to hit 48)? Words fall short with this man. 232 walks. 120 intentional. Still led the league in AVG and SLG by huge margins. He defines the success of the Giants, who are a .500 team without him.

2. Beltre
3. Rolen, Edmonds, Pujols (Tie)

NL Cy Young: Randy Johnson

He may not win due to his record, but he deserves it. What Santana has done in the American League, Johnson has mirrored in the NL. The two have posted nearly identical ERA's, Johnson, however, was followed in games by an incompetent bullpen. Johnson's opponent batting average: .197. Johnson also boasts similarly dominant numbers in K/9 (10.62), K/BB (6.44) not to mention his 2.60 ERA and leading the lead in strikeouts. If Johnson loses it will solely be on the basis of his poor record, which is a damned shame.

2. Jason Schmidt and Roger Clemens (tie)
Even with the supposed collapse of Schmidt, his numbers kept up as well as or better than Clemens. If Johnson had not pitched so well, it would have been a tough call.

NL Relief Pitcher of the Year: Eric Gange

Even with minor stumbles this year, Gagne was still head and shoulders above the rest of relievers in the NL. True, his saves streak did come to an end, but no one but him will even come close. OBA was sub-Mendoza at .181 and his ERA was 2.19. Add in a K/9 of 12 plus and the greatest intimidation of any closer in baseball, and Gagne is the clear winner.

2. Brandon Lidge, Billy Wagner (tie)
Both had respectable numbers for the year. Had Wagner not been hurt, and had the Phillies played enough meaningful games, he might have pulled ahead. As it is, there's no real reason to make a distinction between the two. They lost.

There they are, your winners for 2004. Hope you all enjoyed the games. Now, as they've gotten used to saying in Boston for the last nine decades, we'll all have to "Wait until next year." Or at least the winter meetings.

It Begins ...

2004-10-05T13:03:00.000-05:00

Tonight begins an epic showdown. Money, power and influence on one side, brought to bear against youth and exuberance, corporation against family, light against dark. The essence of true evil will assume human form tonight and try to strike at a warrior pure of heart who has inspired this country.

I am not speaking of the Vice Presedential debate. There is something far more important going on tonight, game one of the ALCS between the Twins and Yankees. I assume you've already figured this out by now. I am ready to see Santana rip apart the Yankees lineup. I am ready to see Keving Brown break his other hand in frustration, ready to see Torre finally get fired, to see the evil empire all come crumbling down around them. I may not be as optimistic as Brooks, but I'm on board too. This year, the Twins have the look of a contender and if Johan Santana stays Johan Santana the sky is the limit.

Baseball's second season

2004-10-04T19:56:00.000-05:00

There are still many firm believers that baseball has been tarnished by changes in the past few years. Among the most despised is the invention of the wild card. Is it because more wild card teams have won the World Series in recent memory than teams that finishes with the best record? Is it because teams that don't win their division don't deserve a chance at the playoffs? Considering that baseball still has the fewest teams participating in the playoffs of any of the major sports, coupled with the way the strikes and lock-outs have crippled baseball the wild card has been instrumental in bringing people back to the sport.

There is a good reason that the top teams don't win year in and year out. I can tell you from personal experience that what wins in the postseason is pitching, defense and perhaps most of all, heart. Statistics be damned in the postseason; it's all about the heroes. The Twins had Frank Viola throwing sweet music in winning the final game of the 1987 World Series, only to be topped for years later by Jack Morris' 10 inning gem. There was Joe Carter's walkoff homerun to win the Blue Jays their second straight World Series. The best starting trio in baseball beat the best bullpen in baseball in 1995 as the Braves beat the Indians. The Yankees in 1996, coming out of a two game hole to rally for four staright wins on Rivera's electric arm that went up the ladder for two innings every night, only to be turned to the wicked John Wetland to close it out. The 1997 Marlins featuring a game five masterpiece by Livan Hernandez in which he threw 145 pitches and was prepared to come back in game 7 out of relief as both teams went to the starters in extra innings. The 2001 Diamondbacks using Johnson to win games two, six and seven (the final out of relief) to share the MVP with an equally dominating Curt Shilling. Last years Marlins relying on the raw talent of Josh Beckett.

Where does that leave us this post season? Who has the heart and hero potential to win it all?
I'm a firm believer you need two aces to win it all and that leaves the Red Sox and Twins battling it out in the ALCS and Houston and the Cards battling it out in the NLCS. Of course anything can happen in a short series but I'll take my bets on these teams.

It took Jack McDowell three years to believe in the Twins. He finally gave in when he said, "So I guess stats don't really win. Teams do." His case in point was the 2001 Mariners. We all should have learned that lesson from the Mariners' 116 win season in 2001, when they shed the stats of the game's most dominant pitcher (Randy Johnson), the game's best shortstop (Alex Rodriguez) and, at the time, the game's best player (Ken Griffey Jr.) and won the AL West by 14 games. I didn't learn from that and I tip my hat to a team for which every player would love to play. This Twins organization has been raised on winning.

I might be the only person who follows baseball to say this, but I'll hedge my bets on a Twins - Astros world series.

Searching For A Spark.

2004-09-26T20:00:00.000-05:00

The San Francisco Giants lead the NL Wild Card by a half a game. Not since the disappearance of Jimmy Hoffa has an event been so mysterious. Equally mysterious are the underachieving Chicago Cubs, a half game out of the wild card lead. Righty Grove has already posted an excellent analysis of the Cubs pitching, which I recommend to those of you who have any doubts about the Cubs Starting rotation. To put it simply, the Giants pitching is roughly as good as a AA team without Jason Schmidt. The Giants staff is 12th in the NL in ERA, and boasts two pitchers with an ERA under 4.00. If I was to choose one player to embody the Giants staff as a whole it would be former closer Matt Herges. Anyone who can save 23 games with an ERA of 5.23 is nothing short of a magician. With apologies to Jason Schmidt and Barry Bonds, the Giants are a team featuring mostly Journeymen players and AL Central castoffs. How have the Giants managed to craft a lineup that has scored the most runs in the NL with Bonds only hitting once? Manager Felipe Alou has been brilliant at shuffling the Giants lineup, always putting his hottest hitter behind Barry Bonds.

The Cubs have displayed an complete lack of focus, involving themselves in pointless verbal feuds with TV broadcasters, the local media and opponents. Some feuding is only natural but the Cubs have become a textbook case of overindulgence of temper tantrums. Dusty Baker needs to step up the plate and show that he will not tolerate the kind of whining which the Cubs have all too frequently indulged in. Baker, unbelievably, told reporters that "My dad didn't like no whining. He didn't like no excuses, either. I'm the same way." Yet when asked about Moises Alou's complaints about TV broadcasters being "too negative" he responded that "There could be merit to some of it." I know that Dusty has always been a players' manager, but this rises to the level of sticking his head in the sand. Last season it took an all out brawl to give the Cubs the drive they needed to make the postseason. Last year it took Kyle Farnsworth tackling Paul Wilson when he charged the mound to spark the Cubs. This year requires something more subtle, for Baker put the mantle of players' manager on the shelf for a few weeks and just be a manager. After all, Paul Wilson probably won't make the same mistake twice.

Walkgate

2004-09-22T23:44:00.000-05:00

We've been talking about it for the last three seasons, originally as footnotes to the real records he was breaking. In Barry Bond's assault on the most prestigious numbers in baseball (single season and all time homeruns) he's been setting all sorts of records along the way. The one that has, at times, taken center stage, is the sheer volume of walks he generates. I think at this point it is fair to say that no hitter in the history of the game (rightly or wrongly) has been more feared. No one changes a game more than Barry Bonds. I have problems with the way he is treated, for many reasons. Firstly, I simply believe that this is not how the game should be played. Baseball is perhaps the most egalitarian (at least in the NL) game concieved and to take his at bats and turn them into the farce they've become is disgusting. Every man on the field get's his three a game, guaranteed and opposing managers have taken that away from him. Secondly, there is no one in the majors, not Vlad and his chiropractic gyrations, not Manny and his "Made-For-Slow-Mo" homers (and fielding), not Ichiro's Sixty Foot Sprint, not even the most determined looking man in baseball, Sammy Sosa, or Sheffield and his wrist-breaking waggle as impressive. For me, it's all about number 25, the most imposing force in sports, lurking in the on-deck circle, slowly striding to the plate like a gunfighter at high noon, waiting with the patience of a saint for a strike. It's the way he turns on a ball before I can even identify it with the help of the on-screen pitch speed. It's the simple grace, the effortlessness of the swing, the purest, cleanest, fastest swing in baseball. It is perfection.

Joe Morgan finally brought some sanity to this deabte. You can argue the benefit of giving a man over 200 free trips to first base, and man who in those at bats would have had less than ninety hits, likely less than eighty. You can argue the point of picking one guy on the team not to beat you. You could even forget to take your medication and pull a Jack McKeon and say that even if Ruth hit behind him you wouldn't pitch to Barry. Joe Morgan, a man for which I have tremendous respect, who I've even met, (although I don't remember it. I smudged his autograph as well) put it like this. If you tell a pitcher to walk him intentionally, you're telling him that you do not believe he can get Barry out and eventually, you are going to have to pitch to Barry Bonds. Now you've set up in the minds of everyone on the field that Barry is superhuman, that he cannot be taken down my mere mortal pitchers, and that if he doesn't hit a home run, it's because he was distracted by the things that Barry Bonds thinks about. God only knows what those are. Maybe he's wondering if he could do this with his eyes closed. The point is, this isn't good for the game, it isn't even good for the team. You need to build a team that believes it can win, no matter what. For as much as I hate them, that is how the Angels won two years ago.

And one other thing. I know that passions run high, and that everyone in a field as competitive as professional sports is going to want to win every night, but I think there's a moment when opposing managers, opposing players, even opposing pitchers stop and watch his balls go sailing into McCovey Cove. I think even they can appreciate that greatness for exactly what it is, if only for a second. But not for a second time. We all know what's coming in the next AB. 4 wide, take your base please. In the end, we'll only get to guess what might have happened if pitchers would throw to him with some consistency, or if the Giants had gotten two big bats to protect him, or if there were a limit on intentional walks. But for as hard as they make it, he's still at 701 and I don't think he's planning on stopping.

North Side Wake Up Call

2004-09-11T16:04:00.000-05:00

It was a familiar situation for the Cubs. Going into the bottom of the seventh against the Marlins they were down two runs. Dontrelle Willis had held them scoreless for seven, despite not throwing much of a game. His control was off early, and the Cubs had the bases loaded in the second. Derek Lee promptly grounded out. Until the fifth, Willis was having trouble throwing first pitch strikes. But the Cubs let him settle into a groove and he was taking them apart at leisure. With the Marlins bullpen ready to come in and lock down the game, it was a show we'd all seen before. The Cubs hadn't hit a home run all day, and they weren't going to. That's a recepie for failure, for the Cubs. Zambrano had thrown very well, giving up only one earned run, the two runs due to a throwing error and a broken bat flare. The Cubs don't have a Rally Monkey for these sorts of situations. The animal most associated with the Cubs is a goat. This seemed appropriate.

There was only one person on the field who must have felt out of place. Only one man felt unfamiliar today. Sammy Sosa hadn't hit sixth in a lineup in over 10 years. But his first two at bats were familiar. They were exactly what we'd come to expect from the Cubs this year.

And then, it happened. The Cubs had threatened and then scored one in the seventh, but all that managed to do was bring the dreaded Guillermo Mota into the game. After the strikeout of Moises Alou looking to end the inning, the Cubs looked beaten. Two more runs off Mota, or Benitez with the bottom of the lineup? Highly unlikely.

In the eighth, Dusty Baker pinch hit with Nefif Perez. This in itself was enough to suggest to me that he was ceding the game, but Perez rapped a ball through the infield and took second on a throwing error. There was a glimmer of hope for a moment, and then I saw the man in the on-deck circle. It was Sosa.

There have been times when seeing the Dominican Daddy step to the plate with the game on the line would have sent electric shivers through me. But I thought we'd lost that Sammy. For the year he's hitting .236 with men on, .209 with a man on second, and .185 close and late (results in the 7th inning or later with the batting team either ahead by one run, tied or with the potential tying run at least on deck). I thought it was the end.

And then it happened. He happened. Sosa chipped a ball into the outfield, scoring Perez. The Cubs piled on for three more with a bases loaded double from Lee. Still, in the back of my mind, there was a worry. Hawkins had to go through Conine, Encarnacion and Gonzalez. He did it in nine pitches. Nine strikes. Three strikeouts. He was pouring heat on the outside corner and had Conine and Ecnarnacion swinging at pitches six inches off the plate. It was determination, it was grit, and it was blistering fastballs centimeters from the edge of the plate.

It may be premature, but this is exactly what the Cubs needed. There were flubs, blown bunts, Nomar came out in the fifth, and the error in the first. But the Cubs needed to remember how good they really are. They needed to pick up a game on the 'Stros and Marlins. And more than anything else, one thing needed to be proven, that Sammy Sosa was still Sammy Sosa. If the Cubs win the Wild Card, this game will have been the turning point. This is when they started believing they could win it all. In the end, it was the Marlins who looked beaten, flailing at Hawkins in the ninth. The Cubs looked ready for more.

Contender Analysis: The Twins

2004-09-11T00:00:00.000-05:00

DISCLAIMER: I am, and always have been a Twins fan. Since every sportswriter or commentator has biases I see no conflict of interest in profiling the Twins.

Rotation:

The most important factor in determining playoff success (aside from just being red hot) is starting pitching. The Twins have an excellent one two punch with Brad Radke and Johan Santana. I have already read from the gospel of Johan Santana pretty throughly. Johan started twice last year againist the Yankees with one excellent start, and one bad one. This is a different Santana now, having gained complete control over his stellar changeup and he hasn't given up more than three earned runs since June 3rd (only allowing 3 ER once in that stretch). Radke has also improved over last year, currently tied for the MLB lead in quality starts (3 ER or less) with 22. Brad usually takes it up a step in the post season; last year he had a 2.84 ERA in the Yankees series, and a 1.96 ERA in the 2002 playoffs. Brad is a gamer.

The problems are with the Twins 3-5 starters. They're not paticuarly good. Terry Mullholland (4-8, 5.06 ERA) has pitched very well at times, but not well enough to obscure his age(41). Carlos Silva (10-8, 4.56 ERA) is my pick for the number three starter. GM Terry Ryan and manager Ron Gardenhire have wisely decided to use a three man rotation in the first round. Silva has pitched badly againist the Yankees (12.60 ERA) but very well againist Boston (2.84 ERA) and effectively againist Oakland (3.86 ERA). However, Silva is in his first year as a starting pitcher and sometimes has trouble pitching deep into ballgames. Even with these difficulties, is the bullpen stays true to form the Twins should be alright with a 5-6 inning effort. Unfortunately, the likes of Carlos Silva scares no one, which leaves the spot for the number three starter up in the air.

Kyle Lohse is working his hardest to make sure that the Twins leave him out of any possible playoff rotation. With an ERA of 5.56, his inability to get hitters out with either bases empty (.322 opponent BA) or with men on (.297 opponent BA) and his utter lack of control, Lohse is increasingly looking like he will not be pitching in any kind of meaningful postseason situation.

The Twins starters should hold up over a five game series. However, in a seven game series they would have to rely on the strength of their bullpen in order to win.

Relief:

The Twins pen is their greatest strength. They have picked up the starters, bolstering team ERA to lead the AL. The most impressive dimension of the Twins pen is the depth of talent available. The Twins have five pitchers (Rincon, Balfour, Crain, Romero and Nathan) out of relief who are trustworthy in high pressure situations. Joe Nathan has made an unexpectedly smooth transition into the closer role, becoming almost unhittable at times. With 39 saves and a K/9 of 10.97 Joe has become one of the elite closers in the AL. Setting Nathan up are four hard throwing relievers in Juan Rincon, Grant Balfour, Jesse Crain and JC Romero. Juan Rincon has been one of the primary arms coming out of the pen, and his pitched very well this year with a 2.86 ERA. JC Romero has not given up a run since June 1st and is 4-0 with a 0.00 ERA over 34 and 2/3 innings since then. That's a club record for consecutive scoreless innings. Grant Balfour has been another solid power arm out of the pen, with a 3.56 ERA (with a 2.63 ERA after the break in 13.2 innings). Balfour was injured recently but shoud be healthy in time for the ALDS. Jeese Crain has only been up for a month, with only 16 innings on the season. Gardenhire is crazy about Crain, who will likely see playing time in the postseason.

The pen also includes Joe Roa and Aaron Fultz. Roa has been adaquate; Fultz has been sent down to AAA and only recenly recalled. These two do not perform well under pressure.

Lineup:

This is the area of greatest concern. The Twins' offense has not kept up with other contenders this season. The Twins rank 10th in AL in RBI's and runs scored, in team BA (.263) and eleventh in OBP.

The Twins have made several roster shuffles in an attempt to remedy their hitting woes. The most effective was giving Justin Morneau everyday starts at first. Since Morneau took hold at first base (July 31), the Twins have improved to 8th in the AL in RBI. The return of Shannon Stewart as a true leadoff hitter has also helped, but still does not address other problems, such as the power deficiency. The Twins, as a team, are slugging .428. This doesn't look too bad against an opponents SLG of .405, but the Yankees, Boston and even the light-hitting A's (compared to the Sox and Yanks) are slugging at much higher percentages. The Twins are still, despite the addition of Morneau and return of Stewart, a subpar offensive team and the worst offense of any contender in the AL, and really of any division winner. They must pitch well in order to survive. The Twins also lack a veteran presence on the bench, which could hurt them as they progress into the playoffs.

Prediction:

In order for the Twins to win in the postseason they have to pitch well. The Twins will need clutch hitting to make up for a lack of consistent power. The other big question is if Silva/Mullholland can pitch well enough to give the Twins a shot in a later rounds. The Twins are as likely as anyone to advance past the ALDS, but a seven game series would prove a considerable challenge.

Quantum Leaps?

2004-09-09T08:36:00.000-05:00

The Spiderman Catch from Marlon Byrd was a true magic moment in baseball. Holding on for dear life, he struggled halfway up the centerfield wall to rob Andruw Jones of a homerun. But what did it really mean for the Phils to take a doubleheader from the Braves?

In the end, not a thing. It was a marvelous performance, solid defense, great pitching, and clutch hitting. In short, it looked more like the A's, or the Twins, or the Bosox traded uniforms with them. Especially the A's. It looked like the A's left town after dropping two the the Sox and decided to play a double header for the Phillies. Maybe they still loved the old Athletics stomping grounds. Maybe they just wanted to play a team worse than Boston. Whatever happened, the A's did not show up at Oakland (sorry, Network Associates) Coliseum Wednesday night. It must have been the Phillies. And those Phanatics weren't playing the Braves last night. It must have been those A's.

But seriously, this is what the Phils were supposed to be, from day one of spring training. There were people talking about a Phillies World Series. These games in mid August could have been the second most exciting series all year, to the Yanks and Sox in mid August. It could have been the battle of the NL East. It could have been a clash of dynasties; one in the twilight of its reign, the other hungry and raw, ready to turn the baseball world on its head. I don't pretend to know what went wrong. It reminds me of a line that is credited to no one in particular:

"We didn't lose the game; we just ran out of time."

The Phillies are out of time. They were weeks ago. I can't fathom how the Braves are running away with the division. There's only one thing I can say. It's a shame for all of us that they didn't pull it together. Then these games could have been dramatic, even profound, instead of a spectacle and a reminder of what could have been.

AL Cy Young: Why the debate?

2004-09-06T22:16:00.000-05:00

There has been some talk about which pitcher is most deserving of the AL Cy Young. A number of names seem to have come up in most press coverage, most frequently those of Mulder, Schilling and Santana. A good indicator of the contenders seemed to be would be anybody in the top 5 in ERA (Although, I am by no means saying ERA without flaws but face it nobody without a top 5 ERA has a chance).

AL ERA Leaders (9.5.04)
1. Tim Hudson 2.95
1. Johan Santana 2.95
3. Curt Schilling 3.38
4. Jake Westbrook 3.42
5. Pedro Martinez 3.55

Mark Mulder appears nowhere on this list. In fact due to some recent troubles his ERA has jumped to a pedestrian 3.90. To be fair however one ought to look at some of his other numbers just in case. Opponents are hitting Mulder at a .250 clip and getting on base at a .320 clip. His K/BB ratio (one of my favorite stats) is at 3.19 which is a fair increase from last year, his K/9 declined slightly. All in all, Mulder has had a good season. However, the only reason his name is mentioned in the Cy Young race are his 17 wins. Although this is a important factor it isn't enough to overcome such a high ERA.

What about the other member of the Big Three in contention? The main rap against Hudson is that he simply has been injured too long during the season to deserve the award, and its a good rap. Comparing a guy with only 149 IP started to the other contenders simply doesn't make sense. Wait til next year.

Jake Westbrook is enjoying a breakout year with the resurgent Indians. Jake has held batters to a .251 average. However, with his record only at 12-7 and his ERA at 3.42 he is unlikely to overtake any of the other contenders and thus much more analysis is largely academic.

Pedro can also be disqualified; he has a excellent season, no doubt. For all the talk about his diminished status as a power pitcher he still averaged 9.45 K/9, opponents are hitting an anemic .232 off him. However, his ERA is the highest its been in years (since 1996 with the Expos) and the batting average is about .15 higher than last season. A good season, but one of Pedro's weakest in years and not worthy of another Cy Young Award.

Curt Schilling has recently come (along with Santana) to be considered one of the top two contenders for the award. At 18-6 his record is hard to argue with. However, in the world of Aho, win/loss record is just a factor and not the factor in selecting a worthy candidate. Curt is holding his opponents to a .251 average and unlike some of other names mentioned with almost the same stat he has done a better job of keeping men off the basepaths with a .279 OPS. Another factor is playing on a gutsy contender like the Sox, helping to pitch them into contention (and nearly past the Yankees thus far). His K/9 has declined by a significant margin but I don't hold the development of finesse over power against a guy.

Now if you've been reading this you might be wondering what criteria I'm using to determine the worthiness of these pitchers Cy Young chances. Well, folks its this simple; Johan Santana has made himself 2004's standard of excellence in AL pitching.

The numbers are just unreal. Since his league best ERA has already been posted I'll examine the lowest opponent batting averages in the majors.

1. Randy Johnson .192

2. Santana .196

3. Jason Schmidt .204

4. Oliver Perez .206

5. Al Leiter .215

You might have noticed that the only one in the American league is Johan. In fact the next best AL starter is Ted Lilly at .232, and he doesn't appear on the list until #11. Santana also has the lowest opponent OBP in the AL at .253, and the lowest ERA, and the most K's (by almost 30 over Pedro). What's more is Johan has been hottest when it counts the most: after the break. He is 8-0 with a 1.68 ERA since the All-Star hiatus. This is the man who has been AL pitcher of the month twice in a row. Johan's k/9 is an insane 10.34.

The only reason that there is any debate over Santana is his 16-6 record. Perhaps if Schilling was getting a win in every start I might consider that enough difference in their records. However to deny the award to Johan based on Schilling having two more wins is well, there is only one word for this ladies and gentlemen: idiocy. Only one man is leading in every significant pitching statistic other than wins (and 16 wins is pretty damn good with 6 starts to go).

That man is Johan Stantana.

Spetember Reading List

2004-09-06T13:35:00.000-05:00

With the school year rolling around again, trees turning colors and the Yankees pitching staff rummaging through Giambi's locker for horse tranquilizers, I felt I ought to put up some required reading for any true baseball fans.

Gammons, with his usual brevity, gives us a bevy of predictions of free agent signings for 2005. I actually found this article even more interesting, in which all the teams out of contention were sized up. Reading through these send me on a web search of Scott Boras, and I came across an article from 2001 laying out very clearly who he is. After reading Moneyball I tend to agree with Rick Morrissey. Eventually this search led to some far more humorous content.

All from The Brushback:

Scott Boras Demands $35 Million To Rescue Drowning Child

Man Playing Entire Season Of MLB 2004 Not Getting Laid Anytime Soon

Baseball Fight Marred By Actual Punches

MLB To Institute New Minority Firing Initiative

Peter Gamons Arrested on Marijuana, Gun Charges

It's football, but I still have to mention it because it's jsut that funny

Struggling Eagles Admit J-Lo/Ben Afleck Breakup 'May Have Been A Distraction'

Check the archives for other satirical colunms, but just a fw more baseball related entries before I sign off.

Montreal Expos Lost in Poker Game

Yanks Quietly Place Sleeping Jose Contreras On Raft Back To Cuba

And finally, to continue the theme from my last post,

John Kruk's Column Mistaken For Lost Writings Of Ernest Hemingway

Let's all hope the Rays can get out of Florida and help wipe out the Yankee's division lead. Until next time sports fans.

Bring Back Bobby V

2004-09-03T20:10:00.000-05:00

In a recent BBTN (Baseball Tonight) segment, John Kruk and Harold Reynolds were asked to rate the five contending teams in the NL Wild Card race on pitching, defense and offense. Kruk rated the Marlins and Padres above the Cubs for pitching, officially making him the stupidest man ever on the program, edging out both Ken Caminiti (I'm assuming he's been interviewed at least once) and Jose Canseco.

If the Marlins had kept Penny, and that's a big if, I might consider them for second on the list. However, trading him took a formidible chunk out of their rotation. Willis is at 9-9 with an ERA just points below 4, Beckett is 6-8 with a 4.05 ERA, and while Ismael Valdez is 12-7, his ERA is 5.23. Carl Pavano is carrying this rotation at 16-5 and 3.09. That is the ninth best ERA in the NL, but he's #23 for strikeouts, behind Willis. More on Valdez, he does not have a winning record for his carreer and has been wildly inconsistent since his first four years as a Dodger. His K/9 has declined steadily since 2000 from 6.22 all the way down to 3.13. Furthermore, Willis' brilliant K/9 ratio from his debut year is down to 6.45, and he is no longer holding opposing batters to a .245 BA, possibly because hitters have figured out his bizarre mechanics. They now hit him at a .276 clip. If I had to guess as to what was wrong, it was that batters have imporved at hitting him out of the stretch(.266 with the bases empty and .292 with men on), eliminating the advantage of his 'elbows and knees' delivery. Beckett's numbers look eeriely similar to his 2003 stats, with the only difference being a 60 point jump in his SLG. Valdez's stats look about like one would think with his record and ERA, as is the case with Pavano. This does not look like a very healthy rotation to me; it looks like an ace and three number three or four starters, or maybe some young pitchers trying to figure it out.

The Padres are an interesting choice for second best rotation. Adam Eaton is the only one with a losing record at 9-12, 4.71 ERA. Both Brian Lawrence (13-11, 3.82) and David Wells (9-7, 3.49) have midling records. Only Jake Peavy stands out at 11-4 and a 2.21 ERA. The problem with Peavy is that he's untested, not even having reached 100 innings last year in the show. His K/9 has been going down since he came into professional baseball (which is to be roughly expected when he started above 12) but dropped from 8.29 to 7.21, although his WHIP improved marginally. Batters are hitting .282 against Lawrence, way up from last year (.258) and they are slugging .460 off him, a fifty point jump over last year. In contrast, Peavy's numbers are .235 and .352. Wells has actually improved his K/BB by two full points since 2001, but but K/9 has been dropping steadily since '98. I don't think I have to even bother with Sabermetric numbers for Eaton, sometimes ERA and W-L record are pretty honest about a pitcher. The only one that seems to hold any hope for him is that his K/9 has stayed fairly high, above 6.75 for his carreer. Still no one in that rotation scares me but Peavy who is 6-0 since the All Star break and who gets tougher with runners on and tougher still when they're in scoring position (.245 empty, .220 men on, .189 scoring position). After the break, batters agaisnt Wells are hitting .301. Before it was .244. His offense has bolstered his win total, giving him a record since the break of 5-2 while his ERA has climbed over a full point. This seems to be the same story with the Marlins.

I will admit before I start in on the evaulation of the Cubs that I am rather partial to them. That being said, here goes.

Kerry Wood, (7-6, 3.30) Mark Prior, (4-4, 4.87) Matt Clement, (9-12, 3.44) Greg Maddux, (13-8, 3.70) and Carlos Zambrano (12-8, 2.94) are the best rotation in the National League. Period. Zambrano's carreer K/9 (in two and and half seasons) is 7.59, AVGAgainst (or AVGA from now on) is .234, sucked even further down by is almost Mendoza-esque .222 this season so far. By the way, that is the only time in the history of baseball that Mendoza has been used as a compliment. Clement's K/9 has gone up from last season, to 9.48. His ERA has gone down, from 4.11 to 3.44. His AVGA is identical at .227. I have no explanation for his record, except that the Cubs offense has not picked up its pitchers this year. Wood's K/9 remains over nine for the year and his AVGA is at .230. Prior still has an astronomical K/9, 10.62 (10.71 for three seasons), although his AVGA and SLGA has jumped by a lot, due mainly to his injury begning the season and the one that took him out of a game on July 15th. I'll finish with the elder statesman of the group, a man who came home to end his carreer, the most dependable pitcher for the last fifteen years. You have to go back to 1988 to find a year he had a losing record, or a season in which he won less than fifteen games. His K/9 is solidly at 6.27 and AVGA is .245 for the last ninteen years. There was an article on ESPN.com awhile back that talked about just how good Maddux has been, especially compared to his contemporaries.

Coming into this season, according to Lee Sinins' Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia, the average National League pitcher during Maddux's career (1986-present) had an ERA of 4.24. Maddux's career ERA, on the other hand, looked a little different than that:

At a fabulous 2.89.

You might not be surprised to learn that's the greatest difference in ERA by any 300-game winner in modern history (after 1900), compared to his league ERA...

Maddux also has the biggest difference, compared to his league, in baserunners per nine innings (2.39 better than his league) and walks per nine innings (1.51 better). And he's second only to Christy Mathewson in strikeout-walk ratio (1.49 better). So this just in: This guy can really pitch...

What has also defined this man is that he's one of the great control artists of his time -- or any time. He once ripped off nine straight seasons with a walk ratio lower than 2.00 per nine innings. And only three pitchers in history ever had a longer streak. [one of which was Cy Young]...

Only five 300-game winners in history have had a higher career winning percentage than Maddux (.638). And, not coincidentally, only three had more seasons in which they won at least 10 more games than they lost. Maddux has had eight seasons like that.

HIGHEST WINNING PERCENTAGE, 300-WIN CLUB:

1. Lefty Grove .680
2. Christy Mathewson .665
3. Roger Clemens .664
4. John Clarkson .650
5. Grover C Alexander .642
6. Greg Maddux .638

SEASONS WITH AT LEAST 10 MORE WINS THAN LOSSES:

12 Christy Mathewson
11 Cy Young
9 Grover Alexander
8 Greg Maddux
8 Kid Nichols
8 Walter Johnson
8 Lefty Grove

Furthermore, all of these pitchers are horses, pushing or passing 200 innings with regularity. How anyone could not rate this as the best rotation in the NL Wild Card race, the NL, or even the Major Leagues is beyond me. The only rotation even close is Oakland.

At least Krukmeister (for as dumb as his choices were) and I can agree on one thing, the Giants rotation is dead last among contenders. Honestly, let the mascot pitch. He couldn't do much worse that Reuter.

Currently listening to the A's on MLB.com and Swisher is 1-1 in his first three at bats with two walks (what a Moneyballer) and a double. That's nothing but good news, unless you're Ted Lilly.

2004-09-01T16:40:00.000-05:00

This blog may eventually prove to be nothing more than a way to settle bar bets, when someone accuses me of predicting the Reds to win the Central in the next decade, or the Yankees to finally admit that they sold the souls of New York to play the way they've played for the last ten years. It may be a useful place to read baseball commentary. It may start a new world order. Who knows?

Now, the ceremonial throwing out of the first pitch, by, none other than Jessie Orosco ... well, at least after I get him out of the wheelchair.

Play ball.