ESPN Watch: Loss of Perspective

I caught the 7AM replay of the December 14 SportsCenter. It's hard to know if the commentators are actually getting stupider themselves, or if ESPN is deliberately searching out dumber and dumber contributors. Steve Phillips analyzed the most recent White Sox trade and concluded that the White Sox rotation was now "One of the best ever." Best ever? Even though I'm writing this at 8:30 in the morning, I feel like I need a stiff drink before responding to that point.

So a rotation of John Garland, Mark Buehrle, Javier Vazquez, Jose Contreras, and Freddy Garcia are among the best ever even though ...

• Not one of those pitchers won 20 games.


• 13 of Buehrle's 16 wins came by one run.


• Freddy Garcia has had only one season with and ERA below 3.8


• Contreras and Garcia were tied for first in Wild Pitches in the majors. Contreras was also tied for the lead last season.


• The Sock highest on the K list was Contreras, at # 34, right behind Jeff Weaver.


• Vazquez was rated as almost exactly average (99 ERA+) last season

Thank god that the producers at ESPN haven't completely lost their minds and showed us a few teams in the last two decades that have had dominant starters. The A's in '89 and '90 were mentioned, as well as the Braves from about '91 to '96. I'm sure that any real baseball historian could come up with a slew of other teams, and I'll admit I'm partial to the 2002 A's. If you've got any favorites that I clearly don't know about, drop us some comments and let us know. We're a bit weak on our baseball history.

Still, I think we can all agree that Phillips was either engaging in self-satire at such an involved level that it was impossible to distinguish form sincerity, or that he simply doesn't know very much about baseball. I'll admit I lost a lot of respect for him a few weeks ago when he admitted to knowing of rampant steroid use in the Mets minor league system in the ESPN 15-page expose. It's clear that a lot of people knew, coaches, players and trainers, but you would think that as a journalist he would have considered it his duty to have brought this information to light earlier.

Is the Sox rotation one of the best ever? The answer is no. Are they the best in the majors? Very likely. The Cubs are hampered by injury, the Astro's will likely lose Clemens, and the Marlins sold everyone but Dontrelle. But isn't calling them the best rotation in the majors enough? Do we have to go to ridiculous lengths to praise them, making ourselves look foolish in the process? They've been a media darling most of the last nine months, but I'll let them throw a few pitches before bronzing them.

Joining the 22nd Century

Well, not exactly, but the Friendly Confines can now be access through various newsreader services. If anyone out there needs another format, just leave suggestions in the comments and I'll get it up ASAP. Just one note, for those of you with gmail accounts, you can put us right on your Individualized Google homepage.

Stay tuned for more baseball comments; hopefully our crack staff can make some sense of the trades made so far this offseason. Until then, let's just hope that A-Rod get a chance to make a takeout slide on Jeter in the World Baseball Classic.

Anonymous Sources: December 9, 2005

Compare these two statements:

"Player A has made it known he's willing to play any position but pitcher and catcher."

"I have the same position [on moving] as I always had... " Player B told the newspaper. "I said that I'm not going to change from [my position]."

Compare these numbers

Player A, 32, 10 seasons)

  G   AB     R    H  2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO    BA   OBP   SLG 
+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+
1071 4363  765 1395 305 50 191  740  86 29 307 444  .320  .367  .544 

Player B, 30 (in January), 7 seasons

  G   AB     R    H  2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO    BA   OBP   SLG 
+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+
 802 3255  505  912 199 16 162  465 169 43 157 676  .280  .320  .500 

Now I'm sure you already know who Players A and B are. You probably knew when I began but they are (A) Nomar Garciaparra and (B) Alfonso Soriano. Given the numbers, given the attitude, who would you rather have? Just a rumination on the value of players, and the value of team players.

Dr Loria or How I Learned To Stop Worrying and Love the Fire Sale

From the way things look right now, when we start the 2006 season, the Devil Rays will be the more recognizable team in Florida, and, honestly, there will only be 31 major league teams playing. In a sense, contractions will have happened, in a roundabout way. If the season started today, this would be the starting lineup for the Marlins.

1B - Jason Stokes / Joe Dillon / Mike Jacobs
2B - Josh Wilson
SS - Hanley Ramirez / Robert Andino
3B - Alfredo Amezaga
LF - Chris Aguila
CF - Reggie Abercrombie / Eric Reed
RF - Miguel Cabrera
C - Matt Treanor / Josh Willingham
P - Dontrelle Willis

I recognize two of those names, which is why my choices for infielders are probably completely wrong. Wilson, Ramirez, Andino and Amezaga are all listed as SS. This is a minor league team with the exception of two players. I'd list a possible five man rotation, but beyond Dontrelle, I can't tell who the starters are for the Marlins. If I knew the minors better, I might be able to pull something together, but as it is I'm stumped.

But in a sense, this can't be the minor leagues, because this team, this year, is Major League.

I can see you're confused.

While Rachel Phelps looked far better than Loria ever would in a bikini, while Willie Mays Hayes hits and runs better than Cabrera, and while the Marlins do not have any players who actively practice voodoo, this is the fictional Indian team from the movie. Loria is going to put an awful team on the field, let them rack up about 90 losses for the next few years, and then aggressively demand a new stadium in about 2008 or 2009 or threaten to move the team when the lease at Pro Player Stadium runs out in 2010. His argument is going to be that without a new stadium, the team can't remain competitive, that "there must not be a stadium gap!"

The good news in Dr. Strangelove is that it was all over after the bomb was dropped, that we never had to watch the aftermath. We're going to get a front row seat this year.

Three Pieces: San Diego Padres

While the Padres did manage to 'win' the NL West, it was kind of like beating your younger sibling in a competition, unsatisfying and ultimately a victory that leaves more questions about your skills than answers. If the Padres had been in the NL East, they would have finished one game out of last place, and now they've made a trade for an aging slugger with that one team the would have beaten in the East. But can the Padres manage to win this season, after going only 82 and 80 last year? Will anyone hit a homerun to straightaway center? Will Bruce Bochy, dissatisfied by the play of any thirdbaseman for the second straight season, begin playing the San Diego Chicken?

1. Have fun

Team that develop a tradition of winning, and teams that have won in the playoffs over the last decade or so, have by in large, been teams that clearly enjoyed playing the game. The White Sox are clearly an example of this in 2005, as were the Astros. If you go back a year, the same thing was true of the Red Sox, and before them the Marlins, Angels, Diamondbacks, Yankees and the Marlins again. The division winners (or contenders) usually tend to be teams that enjoy themselves as well, the A's and Twins of recent years come to mind. Last year, no one in the NL West was having any fun. Everyone was worrying about not losing, and this isn't a great way to become inspired. The pressure is going to kill the Padres if they don't relax, especially with the possibility of a full season from Barry Bonds, a man who creates more offense than any other player in the majors. If they worry about the homeruns they're going to give up (away from PetCo), about the errors they're going to make, the games they're going to lose, they're going to 'Bill Buckner' themselves to death.

2. Bring in the fences

I spent far too long searching for this article on ESPN.com, only to find it on MLB.com. Thank you Business of Baseball report. It addresses the Padres' plan to bring in the fences in right center from 411 feet to about 395. The hitters in San Diego have been so flummoxed by the dimensions of the field, even a small change may give players a psychological boost. It's a gesture, sure, but it's something. Hopefully they get this into action soon enough to have it in place for the World Baseball Classic. I can't tell you how excited I am about this, and it's great to see how much this means to all the international players.

3. Start using/acquiring some speed

Cameron could help the Padres. He went .273/.342/.477 last year and is .249/.340/.442 for his career. Nady is .263/.320/.414 fo his career, so San Diego is picking up some power. I'm not even going to dignify the trade for Vinny Castilla with a response. Okay, that was harsh, but the man spent 8 seasons in Colorado and turns 38 this year. He's just very high risk. But to trying to bring in sluggers is not a great strategy for this team. Right now, there's little difference between this team and the Marlins: young, hard throwing starters who may turn out great, a huge outfield, and an identity crisis. The Marlins were a success when they built on their speed and pitching and stopped trying to hit balls out of the park. This apporach should be drilled into Padres hitters' heads, and the GM's office should make every attempt to move more speed into any position they can. With a few more manufactured runs, the Padres might be able to move to five games over .500, and repeat in the NL West.

Three Pieces: Chicago Cubs

Coming off a year plagued by injuries to key players, and lifted only by the performance of Derrek Lee (and Aramis Rameriz), the Cubs are as rudderless as they were last offseason, and drastic changes are going to be necessary in order to get them back into contention in the NL Central. What do they need to get back to the postseason?

1. Fire Dusty Baker

The man is insane. I admit it, I loved Captain Toothpick in San Fran, but he's got to go. I've commented many times on the inanity of his lineups, and Darin Baker is a lawsuit waiting to happen. In addition to drawing names from a hat (or rolling a pair of dice) to fill out a lineup card, he's got this habit of riding pitchers, especially hard-throwing starters, into the ground. This would be fine, if he had pitchers who had Tommy Johns every season. Unfortunately he does not have a rotation of Frankensteins, but Kerry Wood, Mark Prior and Carlos Zambrano, and oh, right, 39 year-old Greg Maddux, WHO THREW 225 INNINGS! 13th most in the majors. 13TH! Zambrano was 15th on the list.

Furthermore, he has the horrible tendency to 'believe' in certain players. Players like Neifi Perez. Players like Pedro Feliz. Players like Jerome Williams. Noticing a pattern yet? Just send him to replace Torre and then the Yankees on the field will look as crazy as the front office does.

2. Trust in Nomar

Look, we all know that the Cubs, even if they do by some miracle reach the World Series, they'll manage to lose. If they reach the last day of the season, they're going to lose. So why not stick with Nomar. What else could possibly go wrong with his body? There isn't much left. Believe, in the Disney sense of the word.

After rehabing from the most horrific injury I've ever seen (a "ruptured tendon in his left groin", poor bastard), Nomar bounced back from an awful .157/.228/.176 to .318/.347/.531. Rafael Furcal, whom the Cubs are rumored to be courting hit .284/.348/.429 for the year and Nomar, even with his terrible start AND injury ended the season at .283/.320/.452. Worse OBP, but better slugging. Basically a wash between the two. Furcal is five years younger, but Nomar isn't some slugger who is going to break down next year and his .320/.367/.544 (.911 OPS) career line looks much better than Furcal's .284/.348/.409 (.757 OPS). Acquiring Nomar was a good move and the Cubs need to realize that. This guy is the quintessential 'professional hitter.'. This whole 'better fit' nonsense needs to end now as do the Twins trade rumors. Hasn't Nomar gone through enough? And has any other shortstop, even Jeter, saved a life? (A-Rod doesn't count, as he was a third baseman when he saved the Boston youth from stepping into a truck's path.)

On the trade note, the Cubs let Jody Gerut go mid-season in a trade for Lawton. Career line for 33 year-old Lawton: .267/.368/.418; career line for 27 year-old Gerut: .263/.334/.434. I'd take Gerut, personally.

3. Trade Patterson

And replace him with anyone else. Even Bernie Williams. It's gotten that bad. He hit .215 this season. Two Fifteen. He's had one major league season with an average over .270, 2 with an OBP over .285 and 1 season with a SLG over .455. His SB numbers are okay, but they don't justify a lifetime .252/.293/.414 line. The free agent outfield market is not great, but it affords some options. Damon will be damn expensive, Jacque Jones doesn't hit well enough, neither does Preston Wilson. Encarnacion is worth a look, and if the Cubs could afford his poor defense, Rondell White would prove a huge offensive boost. Patterson could be traded too, in a package deal. He's young enough that a team might want to try to develop him.

There's always the chance that Dusty might push to sign Kenny Lofton, another one of his favorite little buddies.

The Bottom Line:

The Cubs aren't going to win the NL Central, I'll bet my student loan payments on that, but if they stay healthy and improve just a bit, this could be a very dangerous team. They just need to overcome incompetent leadership and a curse set into motion by a farm animal. Still, the boys on the northside will, at least, manage to be loveable losers.

NL ROY Runners Up

Before I write anything related to the actual column I want to write, I want to say this. I feel that the NL Rookie Of the Year was incredibly deserving. But I do want to highlight the spectacular play of runners up Willy Taveras and Jeff Francoeur.

I've written about Taveras earlier this year. Here's how he finished for the year

   G   AB   R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB    BA   OBP   SLG
+----+---+---+----+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+
 152  592  82  172  13   4   3   29  34  .291  .325  .341
+----+---+---+----+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+
  89  351  49   96  13   3   1   26  33  .274  .338  .336
 152  599  84  164  22   5   2   44  56  .274  .338  .336

The second line is Ricky Henderson in his rookie year, the third is Ricky projected to a 152 game season. Clearly Rickey hit for more power early on, but with Taveras' speed, he'll be able to create a lot of doubles.

Francouer clearly had more impressive power numbers than Taveras.

    G   AB   R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB    BA   OBP   SLG
+----+----+---+----+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+
   70  257  41   77  20  1   14   45   3  .300  .336  .549 
+----+----+---+----+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+
  151  557  97  161  28  4   49  118   1  .289  .370  .618
   70  258  45   75  13  2   23   55   0  .289  .370  .618

The last two lines are for Mark Maguire in his first full season with the A's, and then a line adjusted for the number of games that Francouer played. Now I know that the comparisons I've made here are not perfect analogs and either one of these players might fade into obscurity, but both looked very good this season. I wrote a longer post on Taveras with several other comparisons, and he finished the season as good as he started. Both of these players are going to have an effect on their franchises, and I can't wait to see it.

Three Pieces: Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins find themselves in an unfamiliar position this year. They missed the playoffs for the first time since 2001 and saw the winner of their division go on to win the World Series. In addition to the threat from a powerful Chicago ballclub, they Twins will have to battle with the Indians for the AL Central crown.

1. A new stadium

The Twins have suffered in what has been at times the worst, second worst or third worst stadium in baseball. The revenue structure at the Metrodome is very favorable for the Vikings, so favorable that the Vikings receive large percentages of concessions sales and luxury box receipts from Twins games. The Twins do not have a large cable network to draw revenue from and the Metrodome is likely the ugliest and least interesting ballpark in the majors. None of these things help generate additional revenue or interest in the franchise, either in the public, or from ownership. In the new golden age of the urban ballpark, the Twins need a new stadium, or risk sinking to the level of the Expos for all those years in Olympic, drawing only a few thousand a night. I don't care how it gets done, but I do feel that a small, county based sales tax raise (about half a cent on the dollar) is an entirely fair price to pay. If we want to live in a great city, we have to be willing to pay for it. Given the fact that there are also large areas of St. Paul to put a park in, the Twins have some opportunities that they need to exploit. The problem is that public support for the stadium is less than overwhelming. The Twins need to get into the community over the next few year and build the kind of relationships that make a community value an asset. I think that would be the best way to influence public support and make sure that the community has a voice in the new stadium.

2. A 'Professional' Hitter (or two, or three)

There's a Twins blog named "Warning Track Power" which is perhaps the most accurately titled thing ever. The Twins need power, and they need leadership in the lineup, period. They ranked 29th in team SLG, 21st in OBP, and 28th in OPS.
The only teams lower in OPS were Seattle and Washington. No team with stats like that can compete. The Twins have lacked a significant presence in their lineup for years. Mauer is good, but it will be years before he becomes the kind of force that can carry a lineup the way a Bonds or a Pujols can, and it may not happen at all. It is much more likely that Mauer will need two good, or one great bat to help him out, and the Twins as they are now aren't cutting it. The revolving-door infield has been a joke. Castro (.257/.279/.386), Bartlett (.241/.316/.335), Punto (.239/.301/.335), Rodriguez (.269/.335/.383) and Tiffee (.207/.245/.293) are glorified minor leaguers that should not have seen even a third of the playing time they did this season. Morneau should be able to improve on his abysmal .239/.304/.437, but he won't be enough to elevate the lineup, and doesn't threaten opposing pitchers. The Twins needed to make a move and trade Jacque Jones and his 5 million salary for a much better hitter this past season, and now they'll lose him to free agency without anything in return. They made a great decision with Stewart, and they need to make another move like that. If the Giant's hadn't inked Winn, I would see him as a good fit. But the point here is that this is a move that must be made this year. I know that the Twins would have been a much better team if Hunter had stayed healthy, but when the performance of your team depends on the health of a man who runs full speed into walls, perhaps you need to find ways to protect your team. This need has existed for years, and it is why the Twins have had minimal success in the playoffs.

3. Time for Liriano

This young man is going to do great things for the Twins (and would have for the Giants, if they hadn't given him away), but like any young pitched, he needs time to develop. He's been knocked around in his first few starts, but his K/9 is over 12 and a half. When he's got his head together and learns how to exploit hitters, instead of just trying to blow them away, he'll be a force, but the organization needs to keep the media heat off him, and needs to make a splashy move that will let him stay out of the limelight and develop at his own pace. If they put too much pressure on his psyche, or his arm, he may turn into a never-was, and that would be a crime of monumental proportions.

The Bottom Line:

This Twins have a lot to do, not much to do it with, and have two teams to climb over to reach the pinnacle of the AL Central. But this is a team that knows how to win, sports a Cy Young winner and a Local-Boy-Done-Good who has been waiting for a chance to really shine. Brooks and Aho might disagree with me (although considering the performance of the '05 Twins, they might be happy just to see the Twins get close), but it's nice to see a three-sided race shaping up. With a smart move or two, like the one that brought Stewart from the Jays in '03, the Twins could be a force in the AL again.

Silent Vindication

Banned substances include steroids, steroid precursors, designer steroids, masking agents and diuretics. There will be one unannounced mandatory test of each player during the season. In addition, there will be testing of randomly selected players, with no maximum number. And there will be random testing during the offseason. The penalties for a positive result are, first positive, 10 days; second, 30 days; third, 60 days; fourth, one year, and all without pay.

I've posted this summary of the MLB steroid policy so that no one who read this can mistake the implications it carries. This means:

1) Giambi made his comeback this season with the aid of any banned substances, avoiding an embarrasing (and possibly career ending) demotion to the minors. It was not a spectacular return to form, but it puts him in a good position to improve next year.

2) Barry Bonds was clean this season, which doesn't mean as much since he spent most of it on the DL, but he still performed very well over the last two weeks of the season (.286/.404/.667), and there was no question that he still had his homerun swing and dominating eye (although both were a bit rusty). Many steroids also take months, even up to a year and a half to be totoally out of the body. If you question Bond's skill this season, go back and look at the homerun he hit at RFK. Moreover, his homerun rate projected over 140 games, which may be as much as he's able to play, puts him at 50 for the season. Not too shabby for a man who'll turn 42.

From this point on, I've run out of good things to say about steroids this season. Here's the list, current as of today, of the 12 major league players who've tested positive.

• 11/2 Matt Lawton, OF Yankees


• 10/18 Felix Heredia, LHP Mets


• 10/4 Carlos Almanzar, RHP Rangers


• 9/7 Michael Morse, SS Mariners


• 8/2 Ryan Franklin, P Mariners


• 8/1 Rafael Palmiero, 1B Orioles


• 6/8 Rafael Betancourt, P Indians


• 5/2 Juan Rincon, P Twins


• 4/26 Jamal Strong, OF Mariners


• 4/20 Agustin Montero, P Rangers


• 4/11 Jorge Piedra, OF Rockies


• 4/4 Alex Sanchez, OF Devil Rays

I'll admit that there are a few on the list, Alamnzar, Franklin, and a name or two in April, that I didn't know about until now. But these names make a couple of things very clear:

1) MLB badly needs a list of approved supplements, vitamins, and other treatments that players can use, instead of guessing if their product is on the list. This was the argument Twins pitcher Juan Rincon used (which is entirely believable). Also, this eliminates the supplement argument for a false positive test.

2) Contrary to popular wisdom before the testing regimen was put into place, there are almost as many pitchers on the list as hitters. This has been commented on before, but it is quite possible many of the fireballing relievers we've seen in the last decade were juiced.

3) Baseball's recent retirees and aging sluggers have all been put in an incredibly awkward situation by Rafael Palmiero's hysterics, both before Congress, and after his positive test, which was for Stanozolol, discussed briefly here in a Hardball Times article, and at greater length here. By the way

The only legitimate therapeutic indications for anabolic steroids are:

(a) replacement of male sex steroids in men who have androgen deficiency, for example as a result of loss of both testes

(b) the treatment of certain rare forms of aplastic anaemia which are or may be responsive to anabolic androgens.
(ABPI Data Sheet Compendium, 1993)

(c) the drugs have been used in certain countries to counteract catabolic states, for example after major trauma.

How can anyone who has alligned with Palmiero at any point come out looking as clean as they did before?

4) Did the Devil Rays really need the dubious honor of having the first positive test? This proves that there is no comsmic justice in the baseball universe.

Still, I started this on a positive note, and I'll try to end on one. After all the wonderful stories this year, the Astros and White Sox making it to the World Series, Derrek Lee flirting with .400 and a Tripple Crown, Pujols emergence (from Barry's shadow) at the "best hitter in baseball", the Braves Young Studs, the Nationals making a run at the division their first year in DC (much to the chagrin of Peter Angelos), and, yes Barry returning from injury to see if he could break a few more records, after all these stories, notice that none of them are tainted with steroids, and, for once, we know this to be a certianty.

All that glitters ...

It's bad enough that the Yankees think they need a new stadium so that they can increase luxury box receipts, but this is truly an abomination unto baseball gods.

He could already get any woman (or man) in New York City. He is (for better or worse) the face of baseball. Did Derek Jeter really need another Gold Glove? Or, more to the point, did he deserve another one (because he sure as shooting didn't deserve the first one)? His range is limited, his arm is adequate, and his only real asset as a fielder is making flashy plays. Sure, he's got hustle, but when Orlando Cabrera has a FP 11 points higher, I think we need to re-investigate who we're giving these things to.

All the others, listed here are reasonable. But to give Jeter a second Gold Glove is to be blinded by his reputation, and the mystique of the Yankees. To be totally honest, I think that A-Rod was more deserving than Jeter, given that it's only his second year at a more demanding position.

I'll have to be satisfied that they didn't try to give one to Bernie Williams or Jason Giambi.

The Black and White Sox

Living in Minnesota and developing an affinity has undoubtedly colored my view of baseball and, in particular, of the AL Central. The same is true to an even larger degree of fellow bloggers Aho and Brooks, who have lived here all their lives. Our view, all season, was that the White Sox' record was a fluke, that their obscene record in one run games was a sign of extreme vulnerability, and that the stunningly rapid evolution of their pitching staff had to be an anomaly, and one that would eventually have to reconcile itself with reality as we saw it. We thought that 'smart ball' was a dumb idea, that AJ Pierzynski was clubhouse cancer, and that Ozzie Guillen was completely out of his mind.

I still believe the last one.

However, if I'd been less partial, both to my own prejudices about teams and to the opinions of the media, I might have developed a more complete picture of this team. If you look at the moves made by the White Sox, you couldn't blame me for having a negative view. They traded Carlos Lee, who went .303 / .366 / .525 had 99 RBI and 103 scored runs. This season, the Sox only had two regulars who slugged over .500 (Konerko and Dye), and the man they traded for didn't even slug over .350. No, Podsednik's most impressive stat was his stolen bases, 59. Still, it's important to note that all that added speed on the bases scored significantly fewer runs, 80, and Podsednik only drove in 25 runs (albeit from the leadoff spot). Podsednik is about seven million dollars cheaper, and, yes, seven million dollars can buy quite a lot in the MLB labor market (if spent by anyone other than Brian Cashman).

The Sox spent a bit more wisely than the Yankees. They got Politte for 0.8 million, locked up Garland for another year for 2.5, El Duque for 3.5 and Jermaine Dye for 4 million. While this is a few million more than the difference between Podsednik's and Lee's salary, I think it gives a good idea of what a few million can do for a ballclub. The trade for Garcia left them with a large 8 million dollar a year salary to cover, but the release of Magglio Ordonzez (who had a 2005 salary of 7.2 million, and a 2004 salary of 14 million) made it easier to take that on. In a tight closer market, they signed Dustin Hermanson for 2 million. And who could forget Anthony John Pierzynski, at 2.25.

When you add all of this to what the Sox had, you see a solid rotation, and an offense geared towards contact hitting. The rotation had two distinct types of pitchers.

First, Garcia and Hernandez represented the veterans that other clubs had given up for dead. In the Garcia trade, the Sox gave up a young catcher (Miguel Olivo) who hit below the Mendoza line with Seattle, a minor league outfielder better known for his steroid violations than anything he's done on the field (Michael Morse), and Jeremy Reed a "top prospect" who hasn't done much in his first two years, and would have been crowded out of the outfield in Chicago. So while Garcia actually pitched substantially worse than he did in 2004 with the Mariners, (3.20 vs 4.61 ERA) he came over without too much risk, and there are those (myself included) who feel that a veteran presence can help young players blossom. I think the real reason that the Sox like Garcia is his record, 23 and 12 since he's come over. You see a lot of the same trends with Hernandez and Contreras, who've had their best years with other teams and had good records with the White Sox, although Contreras had his best season in 2005 since his debut with the Yankees. Hernandez had a dismal year, with a 5.12 ERA and .275 BAA, but still was 9 and 9. Both made significant

Garland and Buehrle were the real stars of the rotation, combining for 30 wins and nearly 300 strikeouts. This second type I'll call the young stud. Both of there pitchers improved substantially over their career numbers, which is entirely possible for young players to do.

This team was carefully balanced, and it's important to note that the Red, Athletics, even the lowly Devil Rays scored more runs this season. If you take a look at league BAA by team, you see that the Sox are very close to the top (.249), trailing the Indians (.246), Astros (.247) and Athletics at .241 to lead the league. Just a note to all you White Sox fans, fifth on the list at .250; the Cubs. The same four teams are also the tops in .OPS given up. Now the Pythagorean Win-Loss formula predicts a win total of only 92, so their record in one run games (which most analysts of a Sabermetric bent would call 'luck') really does come into play.

I guess my real point at the end of this article is about the true merits and deficits of the White Sox, the true picture, independent of the prejudices of years past. The truth is, AJ didn't poison the club house. The truth is the Yankee castoffs didn't blow out and revert to 6-plus ERAs. The truth is that they scored just enough runs to win without Magglio and Carlos Lee. The truth is they won the World Series, and they clearly were talented (and lucky, and luck always plays a part in championship runs) enough to do so handily. I can't say that I wish them luck next season, but I don't think I'll be rooting against them quite as hard as I used to, at least not until I have to hear about the 'brilliance' of Ozzie Guillen, which is the only real achilies heel of the team.

It's been a wonderful season, and we at the Confines are going to get back into the habit of regular articles, including a running series profiling the dire needs of every team in the majors. And to the fans of the 31 other teams out there ...

There's always next year.

Free Agent Round-Up: October 28

In a move that may douse the hopes of Southsiders for back-to-back World Series championships, Paul Konerko filled for free agency. Other notable filings are AJ Burnett (FLA), Billy Wagner (PHI), and one of those amazing flying Molinas I've heard so much about, just to name a few.

The Nationals made a few minor signings, the Mets let 'reliever' Danny Graves go, the Rockies made a minor signing, and a total of 62 players filed for free agency. You can find a comprehensive list here.

The biggest news (although in every story about free agency filings, it appears in about the third paragraph) is that the Giants exercised options on five major players, Jason Schmidt, Randy Winn, Ray Durham, Moises Alou and LeTroy Hawkins. If Schmidt stays healthy, he's clearly worth the money, and Alou has the potential to be a bargain at 4 million. It would be a mistake to evaluate Winn on his performance with the Giants after being traded, (a superlative .359/.391/.680) but he is a career .288 hitter, and good discipline and adequate power for a outfielder with decent speed. Durham has hit .286 with the Giants over the last three seasons, and with a bit of pop. Hawkins has been a disaster since he left the Twins, and even though his stats aren't awful, there is the perception that he cannot perform in high pressure situations. I think he's overpaid at 3.5 million, even if it's only a one year commitment.

These decisions mean, very clearly, that the Giants are once again deferring any major rebuilding until Barry is out of the picture. They are going to try to keep their team together as is and win just enough games to take the weak NL West. As I profile the needs of teams in the coming weeks, we'll take a look at whether or not this really gives the Giants what they need to compete.

ESPN: KUBAR (Kruked Up Beyond All Repair)

It's hard to know when it really started. The new sets for the shows were a step in the wrong direction. It might have been when they made half their ESPN.com columns (from their better writers) subscription only. From what I've read, the trend may be much older, but lately it's found new lows.

One of the biggest recent problems was giving Joe Morgan a regular column. His coloquial, down-home style works quite well when contrasted with John Miller on Sunday Night Baseball, but in print it just doesn't work. His chats have become near legendary on baseball blogging circuts, as has his confusion over who really wrote Moneyball. I won't bother rehashing what has been so well documented, but if you need something more concrete, see this article by Aaron Gleeman.

Sunday Night Baseball itself, which used to be beautifully produced, when a viewer was only subliminally aware that they were watching television, has turned into a spectacle, complete with theme song and gaudy intro. Worst of all, there's now even a segment for a band that ESPN feels it should 'spotlight.' Granted the band does usually say something about baseball, but it's even dumber than what Kruk or Bowa have to say. Add in the constant ESPNHD plugs and you'll know why I've enjoyed MLB.TV so much this season. I've even found a couple of networks that don't even air commercials, giving me a new level of enjoyment for Yankees games on the YES network.

I used to have a level of respect for all the regulars on both SportsCenter and Baseball Tonight. That is simply no longer the case. While ESPN used to balance between entertainment and journalism, they seemed to have slipped over the edge and become nothing more than entertainers. Stuart Scott has simply gotten out of hand. Steven A Smith is no more than thirty seconds from killing someone on air every time he speaks. The one and only thing Larry Bowa could do to become even mildly interesting (since he'll never be informative) is get angry, and he hasn't done it once that I've seen. Come on Larry, toss a chair at the Kruker! Pedro Gomez must feel like he was sent to the Bahamas and then got caught in a three-month long freak snowstorm, which is fine with me. In football season we have to put up with the insufferable Sean Salisbury. Even the once dependable Tim Kurkjian has begun to slip. In his most recent ESPN.com article on how Derek Jeter is "the face of baseball," he wrote the following:

Jeter wants none of the attention, but it comes because of the way he plays. Three of the most memorable plays of this decade belong to Jeter, and all because of his hustle. There was the famous backhanded flip to the plate in Game 3 of the 2001 ALDS against the A's. There was the running catch, and subsequent bloody tumble into the stands, on July 1 last year against the Red Sox. And this year, on May 25, there was the diving catch he made – jumping over rookie second baseman Robinson Cano, a play filled with symbolism – in shallow center field.

Now I might personally disagree with his assessment of Jeter, but that's not what I'm taking issue with. Two of the plays that Kurkjian mentioned, the tag of Giambi and the dive into the seats, may be some of the more memorable, but his catch over Cano will be forgotten by the end of the season, and probably before then as the Yankees continue to sink. Again, this is an article about entertainment and not about sports. With all the compelling stories, all the surprising statistics this year (even those around those damn Yankees) why aren't we talking about the sport itself? If ESPN is trying to help rehabilitate the image of the MLB after the steriod controversy, then instead of talking about the image, they should be actively doing something to improve it, a move that is entirely in their own economic interest as well. You can't make the Jeter-Cano catch into a historical moment, no matter how hard you try, because it's not. But you can talk about everything that's actually going on with the Yankees, instead of writing Jeter a nice little promo. With what Lee is doing, this article is about the wrong Der(r)ek.

It seems like all the real analysis has been relegated to Peter Gammons, with occasional help from the unlikely source of Harold Reynolds, who was calmed down in recent years and provides a very good ex-player's perspective on the game. Gammons has seemed quieter as of late and seems almost dejected on air at times. I think this has less to do with him getting older, less to do with the tarnishing of baseball with steroids, and more to do with the people who have begun to surround him. I won't even start in on Kruk himself. In order to really disect Kruk, I'll need an entire article (and an XXL discetion table). He's that bad. Still, Kruk is only a symptom of the disease that ESPN seems to have caught. You would think after ESPN created a reality show to find the best anchor possible, in which they were judged on accuracy and analysis as much as character and poise, that they might apply the same rules in house. I suppose the problem is that they can't even see anything in the studio anymore other than the neon red and blue. I'll get to Kruk next week, hopefully with some choice quotes from the last two years. Until then, when you turn to ESPN, just use the mute button.

Reality Check :: Return of the King?

Gagne had a rocky start to his season and if his numbers were to stay at this level for the rest of the season (which they won't) his ERA would be an astronomical 18.00. However, his strikeouts per nine would be even higher, 27. The current record, set by Gagne in 2003 is a hair less than fifteen. Even though I am a Giant fan from wayback, it's nice to see that some of the players in the West (both AL and NL) are returning from the DL and ready to help their teams. Ginter was back for the A's, and was on Sports Center's top plays this morning, though he was hitless.

And now, I turn my full attention to the (inexplicably) third place Dodgers. I say inexplicable not because of their blistering start to the season, but because they have simply outplayed the Diamondbacks in absolute terms. The Padres have come on strong, though, and are a different story altogether. While the Dodgers are 22nd in ERA, they are sixth in runs scored, behind the Cardinals. The real problem for the Dodgers has been that their 4.06 ERA in April has jumped up to 5.43 for May.

Choi still can't touch lefties (.222/.417/.333), but with and OBP over .400, it's no wonder why he keeps getting into the lineup, especially on a team run by a sabermetric devotee like DePodesta. Ricky Ledee (315/.396/.467) and Jason Phillips (.290/.328/.411) are hitting well in limited playing time as well, Kent and Bradley have OPS' over .920, and Mr. Injury Risk himself has made it into 35 games with a .254/.385/.421 line to show for it. Kent and Drew have cooled in May so far, with averages in the low .200s. I know that batting average is considered stata non grata but when batters are hitting .212 and .244, it provides meaningful information. Futhermore, in May in 12 starts, Lowe, Penny, Erickson and Perez are 2-8 with an ERA of 5.46. Jeff Weaver (2-0, 3.54 ERA) has been the bright spot in the rotation. These difficulties have put the seemingly invincible Ddogers behind two other teams in the NL West.

Two weeks ago I used a formula derived by Bill James to attempt to isolate luck and remove it from the measure of a team. I'm going to provide a frame of reference before we look at the NL West. For 2004, I've taken the divisional champs, the wild card winners and teams that were in the running the last week of the season for a playoff spot, listed their Runs Scored (RS), Runs Allowed (RA), their winning percentage for the year (WP), their record (W-L), their winning percentage predicted by their RS and RA (PWP), and then their records with that WP (PW-L). I've also listed the Diamondbacks.

           RS   RA    WP    W-L   PWP  PW-L   
----------------------------------------------
Yankees    897  808  .623 101-61 .552  89-73
Twins      780  715  .568  92-70 .543  88-74
Angels     836  734  .568  92-70 .564  91-71
Red Sox    949  786  .605  98-64 .593  96-66
Athletics  793  742  .562  91-71 .533  86-76

Braves     803  688  .593  96-66 .578  94-68
Cardinals  855  659  .648 105-57 .627 102-60
Dodgers    761  684  .574  93-69 .553  90-72
Astros     803  698  .568  92-70 .570  92-70
Giants     850  770  .574  91-71 .549  89-73

D'backs    615  899  .315 51-111 .319 52-110

Some teams overachieved by quite a few wins, most notably the A's and Yankees. I checked the numbers three times for the Yankees; they did indeed outperform their predicted number of wins by 12. None of these teams picked up wins, which is to be expected. Few winning teams get unlucky, because luck is a good part of the reason they win. If we extend this measure to the rest of the league, there is only one major change

           RS   RA    WP    W-L   PWP  PW-L   
----------------------------------------------
Cubs       789  655  .549  89-73 .585  95-67

That's right, sports fans, the Cubs would have made the playoffs in front of the Astros. The point of all this information is to show that while pythagorean wins occasionally incorrectly predict how one good team will finish compared to another good team, it will always predict how a good team will fare against a poor team. I've gone though all this trouble to set up the NL West race.

           RS   RA    WP    W-L   PWP  PW-L   
---------------------------------------------
D'backs    173  193  .590  23-16 .446  17-22
Padres     182  171  .590  23-16 .531  21-18
Dodgers    190  184  .553  21-17 .516  20-18
Giants     170  190  .486  18-19 .445  16-21
Rockies    174  212  .286  10-25 .402  14-21

This is a small sample size, but even in the month of May when they've 'overtaken' the Dodgers, they still have scored less runs then they allowed, and anyone who has the most basic understanding of the game knows that scoring less runs than your opponents is a bad thing. The Giants have virtually identical runs scored and allowed numbers and are four games back. So with all due respect to Tim Kurkjian and Eric Neel the Diamondbacks are not a worst-to-first scenario, and aren't even a good team. If they make it to .500 this year, they need to view that as a monumental accomplishment, because improving by thirty wins is. But if they pin their hopes on winning the West, come September they are going to be sorely dissapointed. The Dodgers are scuffling right now, and once they pull their pitching back together (a rotation that I have infintely more confidence in than in Arizona's) and get Gagne pouring blinding strikes across the plate in the ninth, they will be leading the division. Their lineup is slumping a bit, but they should bounce back, especially with a guy like Kent in the mix. The Padres will be close, and if their young starters stay strong all season the could unseat the Dodgers. It's an outside shot, but the Giants could be, could be in the race if Bonds comes back at a hundred percent. Michael Tucker is hitting .213/.323/.363. For those of you who don't remember, last year Bonds was .362/.609/.812, which indicates that he was on base almost twice as often as Tucker, and Bonds would have legitimate protection from Alou, something he has needed since Jeff Kent left for Houston.

Even with all of that, this is LA's race to lose. The Giants are old and lack real power without Bonds. The Padres are still trying to figure out how to play in PETCO, and how to fit together as a team. The Rockies are a joke, and unless they magically improve their hitting or pitching, the Diamondbacks will drop in the standings.

Remember readers, statistics only lie to you if you let them. We'll give the Beane Boys and the DePodesta Dodgers a week or so before we look in on them again in the next exciting installment of ... Reality Check.

New Blood :: Willy Taveras

Last week the Giants were in Houston for a three game set, and thanks to MLB TV I was able to watch parts of all three. It was nice to get a chance to see my old hometown team, even if I had to listen to the Houston broadcast crew. I saw all of the Thursday game and the most interesting thing I saw wasn't the adequate start from Hennessey, or the loss from Petite. Willy Taveras came up in the third with one out. I hadn't really heard much about Taveras, although I knew that the Astros were using him in their starting lineup. He bunted to the left side of the infield, Hennessey fielded the ball cleanly and threw in what I thought would be more than enough time to get him at first. Taveras beat the throw by at least a half step. A few pitches into Morgan Ensberg's at bat, Taveras took off for second. Metheney is a good fielding catcher (35% CS for his career) and I thought there would be a good chance to get Taveras. I was wrong, as he was in with time to spare. The Ensberg at bat wore on, and as Ensberg took ball four, Taveras took off for third. Again, Taveras was clearly in before the throw. Hennessy pitched out of the inning without surrendering a run, but I realized that Taveras created a first and third one out scenario base solely on his speed. Watching him, it was clear he is blindingly fast, and the impotant thing to realize about his bunt single is that Taveras is right handed, which costs him two steps. The play at first would have been laughable if he was a lefty.

I was curious to compare Willy's first major league season to a few other well known speedsters. The first two lines are for Ricky Henderson, in his rookie year and the year he was 23, the same age as Taveras. Lou Brock at 23 in his first full season is next, then Joe Morgan's first full season and his season at age 23, and finally, Taveras' projected numbers for the year.

       G    AB     R   H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG   
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
R('79) 89   351   49   96  13  3   1   26  33 11  34  39  .274  .338  .336  
R('82) 149  536  119  143  24  4  10   51 130 42 116  94  .267  .398  .382
B('62) 123  434   73  114  24  7   9   35  16  7  35  96  .263  .319  .412
M('65) 157  601  100  163  22 12  14   40  20  9  97  77  .271  .373  .418
M('67) 133  494   73  136  27 11   6   42  29  5  81  51  .275  .378  .411
T('05) 162  590   90  149   9  9   9   41  59  9  45 122  .252  .313  .344 

So while Taveras' numbers aren't mindblowing, they match up fairly well with some of the best basestealers / early-in-the-order hitters of the modern era, and if hitting is indeed contagious, then Taveras is playing on a team that is dragging him down. The Astros are hitting .244, 26th in the majors. The only disturbing stat is that his strikeouts are so high. His minor league numbers also show increases at each level. These may be due to adjustment, and they might be signs of what is to come for this young man. Only time will tell, but for the time being, he is entertaining to watch, and may prove to be a player of note in a few years. Keep your eye on this kid.

Reality Check :: No Joy in Oakland

The A's have continued their dismal hitting, with an ice cold .235 BA and .338 SLG. Worst of all, they're hitting .210 with runners in scoring position, and slugging .265. Like I said last time, these dismal numbers have nowhere to go but up, although I expected that an improvement wouldn't take so long. Injecting Swisher back into the lineup should also help (or at a bare minimum, could hardly make things worse). The Hardball Times recently brought me a ray of sunshine, in the form of Projected OPS(PrOPS). The idea is to eliminate luck in an evaluation of a player's hitting. With that said, here are the numbers for the A's

                    OPS         PrOPS       PrOPS+      PrOPS%      PA
Bobby Kielty        0.724       0.844       -0.120      -16.56%     69
Keith Ginter        0.554       0.842       -0.288      -51.96%     52
Eric Byrnes         0.633       0.803       -0.170      -26.82%     86
Erubiel Durazo      0.734       0.799       -0.065      -8.88%      121
Mark Kotsay         0.755       0.795       -0.040      -5.27%      137
Charles Thomas      0.350       0.759       -0.409      -116.80%    39
Jason Kendall       0.573       0.754       -0.180      -31.48%     125
Scott Hatteberg     0.694       0.752       -0.059      -8.46%      123
Marco Scutaro       0.722       0.744       -0.021      -2.97%      106
Nick Swisher        0.646       0.739       -0.094      -14.52%     84
Mark Ellis          0.684       0.702       -0.018      -2.57%      87
Eric Chavez         0.553       0.691       -0.138      -25.01%     136
Adam Melhuse        0.250       0.556       -0.306      -122.21%    12

(for some reason Bobby Crosby wasn't included)

It's tough to know exactly what to make of this stat, and I intend to contact the author for the full PrOPS (I love that acronym) formula , but all those negative numbers mean that all the A's are getting unlucky at the plate, which, of course, bodes well for a comeback. Keep in mind too that if the A's had held both leads against the Red Sox this weekend, they would be 16-18 and only three back of the Angels. Getting Calero back from the DL should help with these late game collapses. Remember, one of the reasons that Beane traded the people he did was to reinforce the bullpen that was so shaky last year. Another very impotant point I would make is that Barry Zito may be starting to return to form, or at least may be working his way back to above average. He was electric against the Yankees last Friday and missed out on the win due to bad defense. Until the eighth inning he'd only given up one run and his curveball was moving enough to warp the space-time continuum. Billy Beane and Ken Macha need to start reading this blog if they want Zito to turn around; throw him seven and put him on the shelf. A few solid wins could put him back on track. But, I must admit, if I'm still writing like this in two weeks, I might just have to declare this season what it really is, a rebuilding year.

Lollygaggers!

Here's the thing. For the longest time I've wanted to like the Mets, not wanting my contempt for the Yankees to color the whole city of New York. The problem is that for me to like a team, I have to respect them, and the Mets prove year after year all the reasons I shouldn't. The monstrously large contract to Beltran; fine, I'll live with that, he's a good player. Four years to Pedro Martinez; why not, after he throws out his arm you can make him wear the Mr. Met costume. But yesterday's game against the Cubs showed me exactly why I look at the Mets as a traveling circus more than I do a baseball team. Everyone focused on Dempster blowing the save and the walkoff homerun by Derrek Lee, but what interested me most was how the Cubs scored their first three runs.

In the bottom of the second, Jerry Hairston Jr. led off the inning. Victor Zambrano had him in a two strike count when he proceeded to drill Hairston between the numbers with a breaking pitch. No one was worried, because next, in the eight hole was Henry Blanco, or, as we here in Minnesota called him, Henry "The Rally Killer" Blanco. The Confines staff suspects that he generates more than one out per plate appearance, but we still need to go over the data. Blanco hit a low, weak popup that would have been caught by most little league teams under normal weather conditions, and by most major league teams, even with the gusty weather at Wrigley yesterday. Hairston ran the bases brilliantly, giving himself enough time to get back to first if he had to, but was closer to second because he knew what I knew; these are the Mets. The ball dropped in between Beltran and Kaz Matsui and was scored a single.

Now with runners at first and second with the pitcher coming up so early in the game, most teams would charge the bunt, take the out and get on with the inning. Zambrano allowed himself to get so worked up that he'd pitched Prior to a 2-2 count. Then he made an even bigger mistake: a balk. One would now think that Zambrano would go after Prior for the strikeout, or even a groundball to get an out. Zambrano's 2-2 pitch was so far off the plate, even the stellar defense of Mike Piazza could stop it. Hairston scored from third, Blanco moved to third, and Zambrano walked Prior on the next pitch. Patterson was up next and slapped a grounder to Mientkiewicz (who will henceforth be known as "The Doug") who short-hopped a thrwo back to Piazza after stepping on first. The low throw, combined with Piazza flopping backwards like a fish out of water, looking for the ball in front of him, allowed Blanco (a catcher to score from first). Neifi Perez then came up and ripped a ball up the middle that rolled halfway into right center for a single. Prior scored from second on the play.

So the Cubs scored three runs on: a HBP, a 1B (that should have been a team E), a balk,a WP (to the starting pitcher), a BB (also to the starting pitcher), a G3 (and another team E) and a 1B (with a throw so weak that the pitcher scored from second). Two singles, a hit batsman, a walk, a balk, a wild pitch and a groundout. This inning illustrates so clearly why I cannot respect the Mets. If Willie Randolph is any kind of manager, I know exactly what he said in the locker room after the game.

You guys... you lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. Do you know what that makes you? Larry?
Lollgaggers!
Lollygaggers.

So it's root, root, root for the home team (at Tropicana)

Most of the loyal readers of the Confines know that while we are named for the ballpark on the North side of Chicago, we are actually located in the greater metropolitan area for Minneapolis, and we are all Twins fans. My affection for them is less intense than both Brooks and Aho, who are lifelong Minnesotans. Bearing that in mind, I know that my next statement may draw their criticism; I am desperately hoping that the Twins lose their next series, and even hoping they get swept.

There's only one reason I would wish for such a thing, if the Twins lose this weekend, then the Devil Rays win, and if the Rays win and the Yankees drop two games to the A's, then the Yankees would be in sole possession of last place in the AL East. Think about that. Think of the vindication, the satisfaction, the pure joy that every Yankees hater has waited so long for. My Yankees hatred didn't come to fruition until Game 3 of the 2001 ALDS when Derek jeter made the most improbable play I've ever seen, snapping up a wayward throw to the plate at a full run and flipping over to Posada to tag out Jeremy Giambi at the plate. I've waited for this moment since then. Revenge, as they say, is a dish best served cold.

I've got my finrgers crossed for this one, so, to the Boys in Oakland, give 'em hell, and to the dear hometown Twins, just take these next few off. The White Sox will implode eventually, and the Twins can handle a couple of losses at this point. They might even be as happy as I would be to see the Yankees in last.

Snakes, why did it have to be snakes?

Last year, through the month of April, the Diamondbacks were 9 and 13 and well on their way to a dismal 111 loss season. This season, after the third day of May, Arizona is 15 and 11, and has at one point in the season actually had the division lead. How did a team that said goodbye to Randy Johnson last year turn themselves from a laughingstock to a contender?

Partly, they've used the New Detroit Tiger theory. This was also recently employed to a lesser extent in Seattle and in New York in the NL. This, simply, is to overpay for (mediocre, in some cases) talent. Even though the Diamondbacks have proved themselves to be a franchise that values winning, they don't have the (healthy) star slugger that powers a lineup (and draws fans). The ridiculous contracts are ridiculous by design. Ownership wanted to pay Ortiz, Glauss, Vazquez and Green far more than they would see elsewhere so that they could lock them in and field a team that might hit .500. The Mets and Mariners could sign better players for the payroll that went to those four players (almost 47 million dollars, take your pick, Beltre, Vazquez or Beltran, all between 11 and 12 for this year) so their strategy looks a bit different.

Now to these new D'backs. Vazquez has been a bust, with and ERA over 5 (but he does have a record of 3 and 2). Ortiz has been "Old-slow-and-steady" with a ERA around 3.5. Green and Glauss have been hitting in the low .270s and Glauss has had some power. Certainly adding Green and Glauss (if they don't get hurt) is a needed power infusion for the lineup, but if everyone in the NL West was healthy, this is probably the least dangerous offense, with the possible exception of the Padres, or the Rockies away from Coors. The staff is, at best, margnially improved. All due respect to Johan Santana (but not to Clemens, who got damn lucky that the Cy Young voters don't know any math more complicated than addition, subtraction, division and multiplication), but Johnson was the best pitcher last year. Somehow everyone overlooked that he threw one of only 17 perfect games ever pitched. He dominated every statistical category but wins. I know that his trade set up the trade for Green, but I think this is a much better team with Johnson and Ortiz as the starting two. While I don't fault the Diamondbacks for trying to get younger, they could have tried to get someone better than Vazquez in return.

Halsey (2-0, 3.21) and Webb (3-0, 3.24) have been the bright spots in the rotation thus far, both young and relatively unknown. Luis Gonzalez has started to get back to his old form and is hitting .298/.376/.479 so far. These numbers don't look great, but I'm sure that Gonzo sees them as an improvement over 2004 when he went .259/.373/.493 in only 105 games. The most dominant player on the team has been Lyon, who has ten saves in eleven chances.

This is a team that is, even with the loss of Johnson, better than they were last year. That having been said, this appears to be a team that has been very lucky. So far the Diamondbacks have scored only 111 runs so far, and have given up 121. Even a glance at these numbers would suggest that the D'backs have been getting fortunate breaks.

Just a little chart for you here

Team	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Record
Diamondbacks	111	121	15-11
Dodgers	130	106	16-9
Twins	114	95	15-9
Braves	100	79	15-10
Cubs	122	116	12-12

The Dodgers, Twins and Braves are there to illustrate the RS (runs scored) and RA (runs allowed) of teams with similar records, and the Cubs are there to show that teams with worse records have better ratios.

There's a measure known as Pythagorean Win-Loss Records, which is caculated by RS^2 / RA^2 + RS^2 and is designed to measure how good a team is excluding luck.

Here are the predicted winning percentages for those last teams, and the record they would have at this point in the season

Team	EXP W%	EXP Record	Dif
Diamondbacks	.457	12-14	-3
Dodgers	.601	15-10	-1
Twins	.595	14-10	-1
Braves	.646	16-9	+1
Cubs	.525	13-11	+1

Why are the Diamond backs even close, then? Well, the Dodgers have seen more streaking lately than a college campus during pledge week, the Padres are hurt and still adjusting to Petco, and the most dangerous man in baseball is still rehabbing his knee. Expect the Diamondback to fade into the desert night, unless they start playing better. You can only outrun the inevitable for so long.

Reality Check :: Silver Lining

This is the begining of what will be a fixture here on the Confines. For the last few seasons, various figures in the baseball world have launched a campaign to convince the world that Billy Beane and his sabermetrics are ruining the game of baseball. Paul De Podesta has come under the same attacks (although oddly enough, not Theo Epstein. I guess if you win all is forgiven) for the moves he's made with the Dodgers. The purpose of this column is to look, honestly, at the record, at the statistics, and at the payroll, to see if these men are indeed crazy, or if they are crazy like foxes.

From time to time I may invite the other Confines writers to join in this series. I am by far the most sabermetric-minded of the group. Brooks walks the line between traditional wisdom and the 'new baseball math', and Aho is firmly of the old guard, though he does keep up with the newer stats.

So, without further ado, the first edition of ... Reality Check.


The Oakland Athletics have had a disappointing begining to their season, last in their division at 9 and 11. Even worse, the A's have a team batting average of .229, dead last in the majors and haven't scored in the last 22 innings. There is no point in talking about the Dodgers right now, as there is nothing to critique or quantify. I don't think they are a team that is good enough to keep up this pace all season, which would get them 110 wins. 100, however, is not out of the question.

The A's have signs for encouragement, though. They are sixth for ERA (3.65) thus far and if the offense pulls it together, they should be able to make a run at winning their division in what is a rebuilding year. Even if you hate the A's (which I find personally hard to imagine, but to each their own) you can't believe that Chavez won't improve on his .171/.256/.276 ([BA/OBP/SLG] career .274/.352/.497), that Jason Kendall wont improve on .233/.300/.274 (career .305/.386/.415). Durazo .203/.286/.275 (career .282/.383/.489) and Byrnes .182/.250/.364 (career .268/.333/.457) will also move back towards normal as the season goes on, and Crosby is on the DL. When all of this is taken into account and the A's find themselves only three off the division lead , they've got every reason to be optimistic.

The pitching staff has carried this ball club so far, with 7 pitchers with sub-2.10 ERAs and 6 with ERAs of 1.75 or below. These 7 account for nearly 82 innings of the 175 thrown this year. They also have nearly 40 innings from pitchers with ERAs less than 1. The bright spots are obviously Joe Blanton and Rich Harden. Harden has the lowest ERA in the AL (like Clemens, only one ER on the season), and his K/9 is 9.3. He has stepped up in a big way from last year. Blanton threw a fantastic game on Sunday Night Baseball this week. He made one bad pitch to Steve Finley in the seventh and lost because of it. Finley jumped on it and sent it flying into the right-centerfield seats.

Blanton's line for the game:
8.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO.
For the year:
25.2 IP, 18 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 6 BB, 7 SO.

The important thing to note about Blanton is his experience, or lack thereof. Last year he threw eight innings in the majors. Eight. None of those were in starts, and he's shutting down the Angel's lineup four starts into the season. Just ignore his 0-2 record, because it doesn't mean a damn thing. This guy could be very, very good.

Zito has proved himself an enigma this season, once again. If you take out his horrible start against the Devil Rays, his ERA is 4.68, which is not great, but respectable. He's also had two good starts that have been marred by late declines, both of which have come against very good lineups, the Angels on the 15th and the white hot White Sox yesterday. Against Anaheim he threw eight strong innings, only surrendering two runs in the seventh. Last night against the Sox, Zito threw six scoreless, but gave up four in the seventh. In both starts he threw just over 115 pitches.The splits from ESPN's stat page paint a clear picture of what is happening. Zito is tiring in the later innings and pressing to make pitches. In the first inning, batters are hitting .167 off him. Innings one through three, .276; innings four through six, .196. The problem comes in the seventh, eighth and ninth, when he's being hit at a .467 clip. It's is even more obvious looking at average by pitch counts. From 76 to 90, batters are only hitting .143, but from 91 to 105 they're hitting .357. Slugging also jumps from .143 to .429. With the strength the A's have in the bullpen, if I was managing I'd keep Zito on a short leash and pull him before he got into the mid 90s for pitch counts. Working the bullpen for an extra inning every fourth or fifth day is certianly worth the wins, and worth getting Zito's confidence back up. I already mentioned Crosby on the DL, but A's bullpen staple Chad Bradford could be back as soon as mid-June to help as well. The Angels should fear this team, because for as badly as they're playing, they're still in the thick of things, and they are very, very likely to improve.

In a few weeks, we'll check back on the boys in green and yellow, as well as the boys in blue. There's not much to say about the Dodgers right now, except that Hee Seop Choi is hiting (a predictable) .205, but with Kent and Bradley over .350, it doesn't really matter. Just remember, baseball fans, the three most important things in statistics are sample size, sample size, and sample size.

Bad Blood in the Central

Just when the White Sox make you respect them, just when they've gained some semblance of character, they go and do something like this that reminds you of the attack on the umpire, of the drunken fans, of why it seems so appropriate that AJ Pierzynski is playing there.

The quotes in the Chicago Sun Times article read like so --

"He never was my friend because I don't know him," Guillen said. "If he thinks what I said hurt him, I don't give a [bleep]. I didn't come here to make friends, I came here to win games. I've got a lot of friends. If Magglio doesn't want to be my friend, I'm not going to lose sleep at night."

Guillen only was warming up, though. He saved his best for last, launching into an expletive-laced torrent of insults.

"He's a piece of [bleep]," Guillen said. "He's another Venezuelan [bleep]. [Bleep] him. He thinks he's got an enemy? No, he's got a big one. He knows I can [bleep] him over in a lot of different ways.

"He better shut the [bleep] up and just play for the Detroit Tigers. Why do I have to go over and even apologize to him? Who the [bleep] is Magglio Ordonez? What did he ever do for me? He didn't do [bleep] for me. But he said I'm his enemy -- he knows me. Tell him he knows me, and he can take it how he wants to take it.

"Did he play good for me? Yes, he did. Did he play hard for me? Yes, he did. He might like me. He might be sensitive of me. He might be jealous of me, I don't know why. But saying I'm his enemy, he hates me, I could care less what that [bleep] thinks. I don't give a [bleep] what he does with the rest of his life. He [bleep] with the wrong guy, and he knows that, too. He knows for a fact that he [bleep] with the wrong people."

Now the mouthy catcher has a mouthy manager. I'll set aside all the personal rancor for the time being, and even the strategic value (or lack thereof) of character assassination of players in your division, but why the [bleep] did [bleep]ing race come into [bleep]ing play? April 15th was Jackie Robinson day. The aniversary of King's assassination was less than a month ago. If these two men want to sling mud, great; if they want to manipulate the media and sent insults back and forth, fine; if they want to step outside, I'll referee the damn bout myself. Just honestly, can't we hate someone for who he actually is, without bringing his race (or nationality) into the picture?

It's reasons like this that makes virtually everyone outside of the South side root against the White Sox. Some days it's no surprise that the White Sox are the only team to ever try to throw the World Series. Somehow The White Sox always wind up with a black eye.

Notes and Notions: April 19th

Last night was a full slate with two nationally televised games and one local (the Twins). While watching the games, I came to come conclusions.

• Great American Ball Park is a hitters park. Really, really a hitters park. Part of the 6 homeruns and monster doubles were due to the fact that the starters did not have their best stuff (more on this later), but the ball was rocketing around that field


• Jerry Hairston Jr. is fast. Really, really fast. He stole a third for the Cubs and his speed was astonishing. With Hairston and Patterson at the top of the order, the Cubs may have a real speed threat. This leads me to my next note as well ...


• Dusty Baker makes strange lineups. Really, really streange lineups. I should be used to it by now, after watching some of the incomprehensible moves he made with the Giants (eg, hitting JT Snow third in the lineup). For example, here's the starting lineup for the Cubs against the Reds last night (although I am keeping in mind that Nomar is sitting):
  
  
  
  • Jerry Hairston Jr.
    
  • Neifi Perez
    
  • Corey Patterson
    
  • Aramis Ramirez
    
  • Jeromy Burnitz
    
  • Derrek Lee
    
  • Todd Hollandsworth
    
  • Michael Barrett
    
  • Kerry Wood
    
  
  You can call me crazy, but here's how I'd hit these guys:
  
  
  
  • Jerry Hairston Jr.
    
  • Corey Patterson
    
  • Aramis Ramirez
    
  • Derrek Lee
    
  • Jeromy Burnitz
    
  • Todd Hollandsworth
    
  • Neifi Perez
    
  • Michael Barrett
    
  • Kerry Wood
    
  
  Top load the speed, get to the power earlier in the lineup, and leave the strikeout prone Burnitz later in the lineup. Neifi and Hollandsworth hit for average better than power, so you keep them around to get on base late in the lineup. Furthermore, it is ludicrous to hit Corey Patterson in the third spot in the lineup. It would be like using Kenny Lofton or Rickey Henderson in the same slot.
  


• This is more of a cosmetic concern, but it really got to me. I was watching the Twins on FSN North, and while flipping back to ESPN and TBS, something felt wrong about the game. I realized that the normal camera angle used to film was off center. I tried to figure out why this was the case for about three innings, especially because neither of the other games showed the same incongruity. Then, suddenly, it hit me. It was framed the way it was so the the entire advertisement behind homeplate could be read. It was poor planning by the ballpark to set up the camera wells and the ads where they did, and I realize this is mainly a superficial quibble, but the pitcher was at least 10 to 20 percent right of where he should of been. This was a bit depressing, that the ads have become more important to the broadcast than the game.


• George Steinbrenner is a big crybaby. The Yankees make it impossible to win 162 games this year, and he throws a hissy fit in the New York media. This man has the most obvious inferiority complex in the Western Hemisphere.


• The Braves announcers are an improvement over past seasons. That being said, they are still some of the worst on television, which is amazing considering they are nationally televised. They also need better topics to discuss. Last night they were commenting on the mowing patterns at Minute Maid Field. On a slightly realted note, the WGN announcers for the Cubs this year are also better. Not less critical, but smarter and more interesting.


• The Twins are really counting on youth this year. They are hitting rookie Jason Bartlett second in the lineup (at least they did last night against their division rivals the White Sox) and "super-rookie" Joe Mauer third. That's a serious vote of confidence in these kids (I can say kids because Mauer is younger than I am, if only by a nine days).


• There was a bizarre play in the Cubs / Reds game. With the bases loaded and none out, there was a hard chopper to third. Ramirez gloved it, used his momentum to cross third and threw a perfect strike to Barrett to turn two and cut down the run. Barrett then fired wide back to third, which apparently allowed the runner from second to score. Unfortunately for him, he was already out (the force at third). However, this mistake set up second and third with two outs and eventually led to the Reds taking a two run lead (which Graves nearly blew).


• Finally, something is really wrong with Kerry Wood. In 12 innings on the year he has an ERA of 5.84, seven walks and no wins. His control is the problem, and unlike his iron horse days, he seems to be fatiguing early in games, in the fifth or sixth. At least Prior has looked good, which would give the Cubs three solid to great starters. They need to figure out something with that bullpen, though.


• A bit of a postscript. Clemens threw seven scoreless, but Hudson matched him pitch for pitch, and took it through the ninth before he was lifted for a pinch hitter. They were both on fire tonight.

It was a great night for baseball. This writer is looking forward to the opener for the St. Paul Saints, when I can sit outside and enjoy some baseball. Thankfully, they have Summit on tap at the Saints. The beer, at least, is big league.

The Good Old Days?

Everyone talked about the new Braves rotation all winter, and mostly they asked questions. Could John Smoltz handle the strain of throwing 200 plus innings? How would Hudson (or any of the Big Three for that matter) perform on his own? How many times could Mike Hampton homer off Mets and Nationals pitching? Can anyone even remember who the hell else starts for the Braves? (John Thomson and Horacio Ramirez, by the way)

The one the puzzled me the most was taking Smoltz from a role in which he had been dominant and putting him into a position where there is enormous potential for risk, both for the team and for his health. It was clear when the Braves acquired Danny Kolb that they were going forward with this gambit. Like a lot of other people, I felt that Kolb was suspect, and that his microscopic strikeout numbers would catch up with him eventually. Gammons was convinced that his numbers from 2003 showed that he had the potential to be a dominant closer who gets key strikeouts, but his numbers have fluctuated wildly throughout his career. In 2001 and 2003 his K/9 were 8.80 and 8.49, but he threw only fifteen innings in '01. 2003 was a great season for Kolb, with an ERA less than two, but that may be what the old folks call a "career year." So far this year, his performance has been disturbing.

You can get away with allowing hitters to put balls in play in order to get outs as long as you don't give up baserunners, and in only five innings this year he's given up six walks and five hits. Right now OBA is .500, and the OPS of hitters against him is 1.247. To give that number some perspective, in 2003, Barry Bonds' season OPS was 1.278, and the AL MVP last year (Guerrero) only had an OPS of .989. it is very early to speculate, but there are signs everywhere. His pitches per inning is up almost three from last year, and his pitches per AB is up one and a half.

I watched most of the Sunday Night game last night on ESPN, and saw all of the 10th inning heroics by the Phillies. But that's not really an accurate description of what happened. What I actually saw was the complete meltdown of Dan Kolb. He proved unable to find the strikezone, and walked the eighth and ninth men in the batting order. Kenny Lofton came up with no one out and tried to bunt towards the third baseman. Kolb pounced on the ball and had more than enough time to cut down the man at third, and possibly to even turn two. However, Kolb threw the ball three feet wide of Larry Jones (Chipper for those of you who are so inclined) and into the outfield, allowing the tying run to score. Next up was Jimmy Rollins, who had the most brilliant bunt I've ever seen, a high bouncer off the dirt in front of home plate that died in the grass, eliminating any possibility of a play. I don't fault Kolb for not being able to field it, as it would have been almost impossible to play. Bobby Cox brought in Kevin Gryboski, who promptly gave up a game winning single to Placido Polanco, a rocket shot that was past Larry (Chipper) Jones before he even had a chance to react.

It was nice to see the Phillies play with some heart, after the dismal seasons they've had over the last few years. Really, though, this seems to me to be an example of a rare misstep by the Braves as an organization. I think that the closer position has been ridiculously overpaid in the last few years, and is held in much higher regard than it should be. This article from The Hardball Times gets to the heart of some of my feelings on the modern, ninth inning, no men on closer. Still, it is a position of great import and was a missing ingredient for the Giants last year that no doubt cost them a playoff spot (and to all you Dodger's fans, if they'd picked up even 3 of their 11 blown saves last season, they'd have won the division). We'll still have to wait and see how Kolb recovers, but for now, the Braves are probably wishing for the good old days when their man in the ninth was the only man left from 1991, and their first NL East Divisional title. It looks like a good week's worth of games on ESPN this week, starting with the Reds at the Cubs tonight. Play ball!

Week 2 Questions

Well, the season is officially underway and this writer couldn't be happier. Less than ten games into the season, about half the commentators and sportswriters already look foolish in their predictions, which is fine, because in a month the other half will look just as wrong. There is a reason baseball was called the best conversation topic ever invented. However, some specific questions come to mind.

1) Is there an opening day jinx?

Zito, Smoltz, Vasquez, Wells and Radke, had attrocious to poor outings, Zambrano was lifted early in a game (for walking in a run, slightly more forgivable than Wells balking in a run) where the Cubs offense (for a change) spotted him a glut of runs. Plenty of starters had fine days to open the season, and there is a reasonable explanation (for the most part) for all of these starts. Zito is coping with the pressure of leading the A's and still has either problems with his mechanics or psychology. Smoltz had not started regularly since 1999, Vasquez has had all sorts of problems throughout his career, and Wells may simply be getting old. Beer and brats eventually catch up to a man. Radke is harder to explain, but even solid pitchers lose 4 to 8 games a season. And Zambrano still has problems with control, especially when he is excited. I still found it odd how many starters were shelled on opening day.

2 & 3) Are the White Sox this good / Are the Cubs this bad?

The Sox are on top in the Central and would have swept the Twins if they hadn't ran into Johan the Barbarian. Quite simply, at this point, the White Sox are doing the one thing right so far that they've managed to fail at almost every other season. They are pitching competently as a staff. They've always had sluggers, but thus far a solid rotation and a better closer in Takatsu has helped them to look like a team that knows how to win games. Every other year, they've look like a team that found a way to lose them. Takatsu did have one bad game, but in three other chances he has yet to surrender a hit (or even a baserunner). The answer here, is a frightening maybe, and if the Twins lose Silva for the season, there could be baseball in October on the South Side for the first time since 2000.

The Cubs are sputtering along near the bottom of the Central. It has been almost impossible to diagnose this team the last few years. Thier biggest challenge now it to transition from a homerun offense anchored by Alou and Sosa to a hit-and-run singles-and-doubles machine. Whether Dusty Baker will help the team in this regard remains to be seen, but after presiding over the Giants for so many years,(a team anchored by Barry Bonds) his history suggests no. If the Cubs can accomplish this, (which makes the Sosa for Hairston trade make some sense) then their pitching should be able to turn them into a dangerous team. Burnitz may be the key, and if his strikeouts are as high as in previous years (110 to 150 fo a full season), it may be a long summer in Wrigleyville. He alerady has 9 in 32 AB, which is on par with his career rate of a SO every 4 ABs. The X-factors for the Cubs is are Prior and Wood. If they are as healthy as the Cubs would have us believe, they could be great. They do desperately need a new arm (or two or three) in the pen if they want to compete with the other top teams. The Cubs are better than their record, with Wood and Prior. Without them, this looks about right.

(Side note: what is most troubling about the Cubs is how they've won, and lost. the opening day blowout, came from the revamped D'backs, and then they took two from the Berwers. However, the loss that came in their home opener, with a lead in the ninth could become common place if Hawkins continues to struggle. The 1-0 loss to the Padre's may also be a sign of things to come.)

4) What the hell happened to Sammy Sosa?

The other man in the fabled chase for 61, who brought baseball back from the dead after the strike. The Dominican Daddy. The man who, for so long, seemed to bring a rare joy to the game, has six total bases for the season, five hits, no RBI or HR, an AVG of .200 and an SLG of .240. Worst of all, this move was supposed to revitalize him. How could anyone could hit that poorly in a lineup that includes Melvin Mora (who, despite hitting only .115, has at least 1 RBI), Miguel Tejada, Javy Lopez and Rafael Palmeiro is beyond me. His plate discipline has always been lacking, and it may be that pitchers have finally figured out how to sit him down. Sosa used to be the most dependable power hitter in the majors(10 straight seasons with 35+ HR, and 5 straight with 49+), and now he just looks old and tired. He's said he'll retire at 40, no matter what, so maybe he is. Maybe he only has so many hops.

5) The AL East ????

Toronto leads the division by two games over New York and Boston and one and a half over Tampa Bay and Baltimore. How did this happen? Firstly, Toronto looks good, pounded the A's last night, and took two of three from both the Rays and Red Sox. The O's took two from the Yankees, and dropped two to Oakland to even up, and the Rays won two against the A's and one against Toronto. The Yankees and Red Sox have been too busy worrying about each other to worry about teams like Toronto and Baltimore. Furthermore, like the red last year, this lead won't last long for the Blue Jays. $120 million plus payrolls eventually take their toll.

So there you have it, the first official Friendly Confines article of the season. Get out and watch some games. We've all been waiting for this.

AL West: Battle Royale

Here they come, the annual predictions from the Confines staff. I'll start it off with what may be the toughest division to predict. This may turn from the three-way brawl it was last year into a four-way dogfight. But it could just as likely turn into a two-team slugfest. Only one way to find out.

Texas Rangers: 89-73, 3 games back

Without a doubt (besides the complete collapse of the Phillies) the biggest surprise of the season was the Rangers. Previously the whipping boy of the west, Texas had a strong showing late in the season and was legitimately considered a contender for the pennant until the last week of the season.

Clearly, they relied on their offense, scoring the most runs (860) of any team in the division, achieved through a team slugging of .457. Barring injury, the Rangers should be able to run the same lineup out on the field this year, and injury shouldn't be a problem as only one player in their starting lineup is 30 or older, and the average age of their lineup is less than 27.

Where Texas has issues is with their pitching. Only Rodgers and Ryan Drese had more than 10 wins, and they were the only two Texas starters with winning records. While Chan Ho Park could pull himself back together, he's been a mess since he went to Texas, and while R.A. Dickey threw some good games, this is not a staff that is going to see a drastic improvement. The staff was rescued by the bullpen. The relievers who threw the most innings for Texas last year all logged sub 4 ERA's and three were sub 3. To give you an idea of how important this was for the Rangers, the team ERA 4.53.

The Rangers were fourth in the AL for runs scored last year, five back of the White Sox and trailing only the Yankees and Boston. There will probably not be a lot of improvement in the hitting, but there is no reason to think that they will decline. With the departure of Hudson and Mulder, however, and the development that young hitters go through, the team could conceivably hit better than last year. It also bodes well for Texas that they didn't burn out the young bullpen arms that carried them last year.

Prediction:

This is a team that is one or two quality starting pitchers from genuine contention in the playoffs, not just for the West. As long as the organization is smart enough to hold onto Soriano and the corps of young hitters they have, and to let their pitchers develop, they could be a real force in a few years, with a couple of smart signings.

85-77, 7 games back, 3rd place finish.
They'll be close in June and July, but their pitching will start to fall apart down the stretch.


Seattle Mariners: 63-99, 29 games back

The Mariners were a joke last year, with the worst offense in the AL, and fourth worst in baseball. They've reloaded their offense with Sexon and Beltre are hoping to get back into contention for a division they used to dominate.

It's hard to come up with any real strengths this team has. Sure, Sexson and Beltre add some pop from the corners and will send little Ichiro scampering around the bases, but there are still huge holes and huge risks. Betlre had a season that resurrected his career, but hitters who switch leagues sometimes lose their stroke, and Beltre does not seem to be the most together player, even with the rest of the Dodgers as a contrast. He'd never hit higher than .290, never hit more than 23 HR, never slugged higher than .475 until last year. He has no pedigree, and is a huge risk, especially in a new market and a new league.

Sexson is a risk for other reasons. His numbers were great, until last year when he was hurt. Still, Sexson has never played on a team that has been anywhere near winning anything for about a decade. He has been used to being a show more than a star. The only reason to go see the Brewers in the 90's was to see Sexson.

Sele will help out a beleagured staff. If (big if) he can put together the type of 18-9 season that he once did, and can manage to eat some innings he could be a nice pick-up. However last year, he only threw about 5 or 6 innings a start, which is a recipe for disaster for Seattle. Full seasons from Madritsch and Pineiro could help, but this is a team full of 'ifs' right now. Guardado was the only competent pitcher in the pen and was the only pitcher on the staff with an ERA below 3. That is saying something.

Now, while I've made the Mariners out to be a gang of lepers and club-footed mountain men, there is hope this year that was nowhere to be found. Everyone is glad to get out of Arizona, and Sexson is likely no exception. If he stays healthy, he may be thrilled to be playing for a team that could win three to four times as many games as his team won last year. That sound like motivation to me. Also, with Beltre, he might do better in a smaller market, out of the LA limelight, in a town where an 80 to 90 win season would be met with a parade.

Still, this is a team with more holes than pieces. If Beltre, Sexson, Ichiro and the rest of the lineup hit like they're capable of, and the starting staff puts good innings together, this is a team that could stay in the hunt.

Prediction:

They'll never get back to 116, but they don't have to. Seattle would be happy with a winning season, which they will have, barely.

83-81, 9 games back, 4th place finish.
Close in the early summer, in the pack with Texas.


Oakland Athletics: 91-71, one game back

Even though they haven't won a World Series since 1989 the A's are the closest thing to a dynasty that the West has. Since Beane has introduced the new Sabermetric logic the A's have the most wins for the least dollars. From 2001 to 2003 they had two less wins than the Yankees and one less than the Mariners (helped a ton by the 116 season) for a third and a half of the payroll, respectively. Beane now has made the most controversial decisions of his career, trading away Hudson and Mulder to reload with young talent and avoid losing them to free agency.

Predicting how the rotation will respond to the loss of Hudson and Mulder is near impossible. Zito has fallen off his 2002 numbers (23-5, 2.75) drastically, but this was his only season with an ERA over 3.5 and a SLG over .350. Anyone who watched him this season could see that his problems were more with his head than his mechanics. Harden improved from last year and is beginning to turn into the pitcher that Beane hoped he would. The trades picked up the bullpen help that the A's needed to get back to the sort of numbers they put up in 2003.

The offense is a bit easier to predict. Kendall is an incredible pickup, a good defensive catcher who has experience with young arms who hits for great average. The Giants picked up a catcher with the same defensive skills whose career average is 67 points lower. Crosby's power numbers were promising, and several highly touted prospects are going to hit the majors with the A's this year, including Swisher of Moneyball fame. Durazo's numbers finally have climbed back up to how he played his rookie year, with a healthy bounce in HR and RBI. With a chance to DH, he has stayed healthy and his swing has returned. It's now very easy to imagine why Beane wanted to trade for him for so long. If the Lion of Alameda County (Chavez) stays healthy and one or two of the prospects really produce, the A's will have a daunting lineup. (Oh, and as a side note, Chavez's one weakness, his inability to hit left-handed pitching, seems to have disappeared this past season. He actually hit lefties better, .306 vs .257.)

Prediction:

One thing is for sure, that the bullpen will not be as overworked or understaffed as it was last year. If the young players come together, the A's could run away with the division. Likely, a few will develop, and a few will lag and the A's will be breathing down the necks of the West Coast Yankees rising, the Angels.

91-71, 1 game back, 2nd place finish.
I see it ending exactly the way it did this year, with the pitching giving out in late September. But, just wait ‘til next year. If the AL West has any sense, they will be very afraid of the A's, they could be great now, and they will be great later.


Anaheim Angels: 92-80, AL West champions

Amazing that this team is able to win they way they do, considering the fact that they're more concerned with how their name affects their marketing money than actual baseball. They only lag Boston and the Yankees in payroll. Want a new understanding of economics? In baseball, one win is worth $42,083,694(the difference between the A's and Angels' payrolls).

Colon did win 18 games, but his ERA was above 5. Sele was over 5 too, and Washburn and Lackey were both north of 4.6. Their best ERA from a starter was 3.93 from Kelvim Escobar. Much like Texas, they were bailed out by their pen and their slugging offense. Losing Guillen, even with the acquisition of Finley hurts the Angels, and very few 40 year-old players hold up as well as Barry Bonds. Furthermore, given his historically low RBI numbers(65 a year), Cabrera is more of a gamble than a sure producer.

Byrd could come around, but he's been injury-ridden for a few years and has not looked dominant since he left KC. If he is healthy, though, he could save the pen some innings. The rest of the staff, as I said before, middling. The Angels are also banking that Francsico Rodriguez will turn into the next Eric Gagne. When you get down to it, they have almost as many question marks as any other team in the division.

92-70, AL West champions.
Again, in a very tight race, the Angels edge out the A's in the last weeks, if Gurerro and the offense keep firing. Remember, it took an incredible performance from Vlad last year just to get close enough to have a chance to beat Oakland in the last three games of the year. The Angels have a tenuous hold on the division at best.

Well, in five months, we'll see how wrong I've been. I'll finish off the West next week when we'll answer the burning questions, can the Giants win with four outfielders and JT Snow covering the entire right side alone? Will The Dodgers change their name to the Orange County Dodgers to cash in on the popular FOX series. Will the Padres convert legions of fans to fill Petco Field? And will anyone ever care about the Rockies or Diamondbacks again? Stay tuned sports fans.